Shesa's Stock Market Weekend Updates - 10|11|26

Welcome to my Weekend's Updates

Key Takeaway

U.S. stocks finished the week higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recovering from midweek pressure. Technology and AI-related stocks sold off sharply on Thursday amid concerns about OpenAI’s revenue outlook but rebounded Friday.


Investors are entering a busy week with major bank earnings and important inflation reports. The 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.36%, its highest level since 2002, before easing to around 5.24% by Friday. Uncertainty surrounding Iran, oil prices and elevated Treasury yields could create further market volatility. Technology stocks helped support the market’s recovery, but risks remain. Elevated Treasury yields, oil-price volatility and inflation concerns could create further market swings.


Stock Market Indices

Index

Weekly Change

Closing Level

YTD

S&P 500

🟢 +1.2%

7,811.54

🟢 +14.1%

Nasdaq Composite

🟢 +0.6%

27,366.17

🟢 +17.7%

Dow Jones

🟢 +0.9%

51,654.95

🟢 +7.5%

Russell 2000

🔴 -0.9%

2,806.98

🟢 +13.1%


Economic Reports last week

The FOMC meeting minutes released on October 7 indicated that the Fed is targeting one more interest rate hike before the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation.

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached approximately 5.36%, its highest level since 2002, before easing to around 5.24% by Friday. Persistently high yields can put pressure on stock valuations, especially growth and technology stocks.

Economic Reports this week

  • Wednesday, October 14: September Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  • Thursday, October 15: September Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales.

CPI will be particularly important in assessing whether inflation is cooling. PPI will provide another measure of inflationary pressures, while Retail Sales will offer insight into consumer spending.

Key Earnings This Week

  • Tuesday, October 13: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth Group.
  • Wednesday, October 14: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, ASML.
  • Thursday, October 15: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Charles Schwab

Analysts expect 30% year-over-year earnings growth from S&P 500 companies in Q3, which could help support the market. Financial companies lead this week’s reporting calendar. I will be watching TSMC and ASML earnings for further insight into AI growth and semiconductor demand.

Other News

  • Middle East / Oil: Uncertainty around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt oil supplies, push prices higher and add to inflation pressures.
  • AI / Semiconductors: AI stocks rebounded Friday after concerns about AI spending triggered a sell-off. Investors are watching whether AI investments can deliver expected returns.
  • SpaceX / Telecommunications: SpaceX’s acquisition of a low-band spectrum portfolio raised concerns about competition for traditional wireless carriers, pressuring telecom stocks.
  • Apple (AAPL): Apple shares fell after reports that the company had asked some suppliers to reduce production of components for its iPhone 18 Pro models amid concerns about costs and demand.

Stocks to Watch

TSLA, NVDA, MU, MRNA, GOOG, TEM, RXRX and AMZN.

  • TSLA: Watch earnings and management commentary on Cybercab, Optimus and FSD. It will declare earnings on 10/21.
  • NVDA: Monitor AI infrastructure demand and whether earnings growth can justify current valuations.
  • MU: Watch memory pricing, high-bandwidth memory demand and fiscal 2027 guidance.
  • MRNA: Since I included MRNA in my October blog last week, the stock is up about 18%. Investors will be watching Phase 3 data for its personalized cancer vaccine at the ESMO Congress on October 24, a key catalyst for the stock.

Note: these are not recommendations — just a watch list.

Going Forward

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain strong year-to-date, supported by earnings expectations and continued investment in AI. However, elevated Treasury yields, oil-price volatility and questions about the returns on AI spending could trigger further market pullbacks.

Next week’s CPI report and major bank earnings will be important. I will also be watching TSMC and ASML for clues about the strength of AI demand. Strong earnings could help support stocks, but hotter-than-expected inflation or rising oil prices could complicate the outlook for interest rates and valuations.

My approach remains the same: stay invested, remain selective, maintain a healthy cash position and use market weakness to build positions gradually in companies with solid long-term potential. I do not want to chase stocks after sharp rallies, but I also do not want to miss opportunities because of short-term market fears.

Have a good weekend!

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