Shesa's OCTOBER 2026 Investment Blog

 By Shesa Nayak

Welcome to Shesa’s investment Blog! 

U.S. Stock Market Update

September was another mixed but still constructive month for the U.S. stock market, with volatility remaining elevated. Despite September historically being the weakest month for stocks, the Nasdaq-100 gained 3.23%, marking its third consecutive year of gains for the month of September. Other major indexes were down for the month. However, all major indexes remained higher year-to-date, supported largely by continued strength in technology and AI-related stocks. At the same time, Treasury yields remained elevated, adding pressure to valuations and keeping investors cautious. The 10-year yield briefly touched 5.33%, a level last seen in April 2002. October is shaping up to be an important month because Q3 earnings season is about to begin and more importantly midterm election is on November 3, 2026, less than one month away. Usually, the midterm elections create additional market volatility as investors assess the potential impact of changes in control of Congress on taxes, regulation and government spending.

Q3 Earnings: Major financial companies will report first, followed by many of the large technology and AI companies. We should be watching not only whether companies beat earnings expectations, but also their revenue growth, profit margins, AI spending and forward guidance. Financial earnings should give us a better picture of the economy, while technology earnings will help determine whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure is translating into continued earnings growth. With expectations already high, even strong earnings could result in market volatility if companies provide weaker guidance. 

Economic Backdrop: Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. August PCE came in at 3.4% year-over-year, much less than the 3.7% expected, while Core PCE rose only 3.0%. The labor market continues to soften. September Nonfarm Payrolls rose only 29,000 (well below the 84,000 expected), and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. ADP showed private payrolls rose 90,000 in September after a weak 36,000 the prior month.

Federal Reserve Updates

In September, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%. After the weak September jobs report, expectations for another rate hike in October have dropped sharply. The next Fed meeting is on October 27 - 28. So, it’s too early to call, as the outlook could depend heavily on two key factors: oil prices and Treasury yields.. Higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated, while higher bond yields could put additional pressure on stock valuations.

As we move into early October, the market continues to digest higher oil prices, treasury yields and the latest economic data. So, what can we expect? I can share my thoughts but before that let’s take a look to the stock market indices: 

Indexes	Close FRI 12/31/25	Close FRI 9/4/26	Change in 2026	% Change in 2026
DOW	48,063.99	51,176.25	3,112.26	6.48%
S&P 500	6,845.50	7,722.72	877.22	12.81%
NASDAQ	23,241.99	27,190.86	3,948.87	16.99%
Russell 2000	2,481.91	2,832.89	350.98	14.14%
SOX (Semi)	8,083.13	13,136.67	5,053.54	62.52%

Key Economic Data

• PCE: 3.4%
• Core PCE: 3.0%
• CPI: 3.4%
• Core CPI: 2.4%
• Unemployment: 4.2%
• Nonfarm Payrolls (September): +29,000
• ADP Private Payrolls (September): +90,000
• Federal Funds Rate: 3.75%–4.00%
• 10-Year Treasury: briefly touched 5.33%

Earnings Expectations 

• For Q2, S&P 500 companies reported strong year-over-year earnings growth of approximately 52% and revenue growth of about 15.5%.
• For Q3 2026, analysts are currently projecting earnings growth of approximately 29.5% and revenue growth of 12.3%.
• Q4 2026 earnings growth: 27.6%, not 25.8%
• Full-year 2026 earnings growth: 32.4%, not 31.2%
• For 2027, projected earnings growth is 14.4% and revenue growth of 8.9%.

These numbers show that while growth is expected to slow from the very strong Q2 pace, it is still projected to remain solid. 

Q3 Earnings Season Expectations

Financial companies will report first and should give a clearer picture of the economy and consumer. Later in the month the big technology and AI companies will report. The key question for me is whether the heavy spending on AI infrastructure is translating into strong revenue and earnings growth. Guidance will extremely important, especially with expectations already high. These earnings reports will be important in determining whether the market can maintain its current momentum.

Key Mag 7 Earnings Calendar in October

• 10/21: TSLA 
• 10/27: GOOG
• 10/28: MSFT, META
• 10/29: AAPL, AMZN

These are the key reports I will be watching most closely this month.

What can we expect in October - A bigger picture

October has a unique history in the stock market. Some of the largest market declines occurred during October as listed below: 

• 1907 Bank Panic: In mid-Oct NYSE crashed -50% from its peak the previous year.
• Oct 28 and Oct 29, 1929: DOW crashed -12,82% and -11.73%, 24% in 2 days due to overvaluation of stocks, excessive speculation, and a faltering economy
• Black Monday October 19, 1987: (Dow plummeted -22.6% in a single day). This was the biggest stock market crash in history in a single day. Reason: rising interest rates, a large US trade deficit, a declining dollar
• 2008 Subprime Mortgage Financial Market Collapse. Reason: Housing bubble

Now the question is, can we see another crash this year? No, I do not think so. But there is another important factor this year: 2026 is a U.S. mid-term election year where stock market creates additional market volatility. But as I said in my previous blog, one year after the midterm elections have produced solid 14 - 18% return in every cycle since early 1950s, 95% of time.  Last time it was negative in almost century in 1939. Hence, it’s advisable to get invested after the election not to miss the opportunity. History does not guarantee the same outcome this time, but it is one reason I don't want to become overly defensive going into the election. My October strategy is simple: stay invested, stay selective, keep some cash available and be prepared to take advantage of market weakness. I would rather use weakness to build a position than try to predict the exact market bottom. 

Stock Market TOP sectors for 2026 (as of 10/4/26)

Sector	Performance Year-To-Date %
Energy (TOP)	40.36
Information Technology	30.19
Industrials	9.55
Materials	8.13
Healthcare	7.29
Utility (WORST)	-6.73

You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:

Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd

Other News

President Trump hosted a White House luncheon with major tech and AI executives on Tuesday. The meeting took place amid rising public and industry concerns about AI risks, including reports of AI models being involved in unauthorized hacking attempts.

In mid-September, concerns from AI executives about the risks of rapidly developing AI triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor stocks, though it did not last long.

Tesla began deliveries of its electric Semi trucks to its first group of customers in late September.

Why do I think Tesla (TSLA) is still a good stock for long-term Investors?

I would like to just share some quick thoughts. Tesla has several developments I will be watching in the coming months:

• Q3 vehicle deliveries of 486,532 (beating Wall Street expectations of 462,000). Production was 464,391.
• Energy storage deployment of 13.7 GWh in Q3.
• Q3 earnings on 10/21. Need to watch about what Musk says about CyberCab, Optimus, FSD and CapEx
• Continued expansion of the Robotaxi / Cybercab network.
• Progress on Optimus production. It seems to have already started in Fremont factory. If it works as expected, it may be a game changer. 
• Tesla Semi ramp and commercial orders. Already started delivering since last couple of weeks

The above could be meaningful catalysts depending on how they develop. I am expecting that 2027 would potentially be a major turnaround year for Tesla.

Why do I think Micron (MU) is still a great stock?

Micron (MU): Reported excellent results for Q2 2026, beating top and bottom line, raised guidance.

EPS: $33.42 vs. $31.61 expected, up 1000%.

Revenue: $54.23B vs. $51.07B expected, up 379%.

Q1 Guidance: Rev: $61.5B vs. $57B, EPS: $38.15 vs. $35.40.

My view: Despite this staggering revenue and profit growth, I believe the stock still looks surprisingly cheap. Wall Street continues to view the memory business through the traditional lens that memory is a cyclical industry. I agree that it was highly cyclical in the past, but I believe the industry is going through a structural change because of the growing demand for AI, high-bandwidth memory and data-center infrastructure.

Micron is also seeing customers commit to long-term supply agreements, while the company expects memory supply and demand conditions to remain much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028. Because of these changes, I don't believe Micron should necessarily be valued the same way it was during previous memory cycles. In my view, the company still has significant long-term potential if AI-driven memory demand continues to grow.

Now let me discuss the stock for this month in my blog portfolio.

Moderna (MRNA)

Moderna (MRNA) is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines and vaccines using its mRNA technology platform. The company is working to expand beyond COVID-19 vaccines into areas such as cancer, respiratory diseases and other infectious diseases.

The most important development is Moderna’s partnership with Merck on intismeran autogene, a personalized mRNA-based cancer treatment. In August, Moderna and Merck announced that their Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial in melanoma met its recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints. The stock surged more than 100% in a single day following the announcement. This is important because it provides additional evidence that Moderna’s mRNA technology may have applications far beyond vaccines. Detailed data from the trial will be important for investors, and I will be looking closely at the magnitude of the benefit, the safety profile and whether the results strengthen the potential for intismeran to become an important new cancer treatment.

Why do I Like MRNA?

I see it as a long-term mRNA platform company rather than simply a COVID vaccine company. The oncology opportunity is particularly interesting to me. Personalized cancer treatment using mRNA is still an emerging area, but the recent Phase 3 melanoma results were an important milestone. The Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival, with statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements compared with Keytruda alone. Following the announcement on August 19, Moderna shares surged approximately 159% in a single day, one of the biggest one-day moves I have seen in the stock.

The detailed Phase 3 data will be presented at the ESMO Congress on October 24, 2026. This will be an important event because I want to see the full results, including the magnitude of the benefit and safety profile. If Moderna can successfully develop multiple products using its mRNA technology, the company could eventually have a much more diversified and solid revenue base. Now let's see the financials.

Financials

Moderna generated $145 million in revenue in the 2nd quarter of 2026, compared with $142 million in Q2 2025. The company reported a net loss of $782 million, or $1.97 per share. The large net loss is mainly because Moderna's current revenue base is not yet sufficient to cover its operating expenses and significant investment in its pipeline. 

The trailing 12-month revenue was approximately $2.23 billion through June 30, 2026. It generated $1.94 billion in total revenue in 2025. Now it’s targeting up to 10% revenue growth for full-year 2026 and expects to end the year with approximately $4.7–$5.2 billion in cash.

The financial picture remains challenging, with the company still reporting significant losses, but the cash position gives Moderna the ability to continue investing in its pipeline while it works to develop new sources of revenue beyond COVID-19.

Strategy

MRNA is currently trading at $190.0 as of October 4, close to its 52-week high of $208.90. Usually, I am not too keen on chasing a stock after such a big move. Having said that, I believe the recent Phase 3 melanoma results could be an important turning point for Moderna and its mRNA platform. The upcoming detailed melanoma data will be important for me. I want to see the strength of the benefit, safety profile and whether the results increase the potential for intismeran to become an important cancer treatment.

As my blog readers know, I always buy in small quantities in a phased manner and keep accumulating. When the stock goes up significantly, I also like to take some chips off the table and book profits. MRNA is a high-risk and volatile stock, so I will remain disciplined and keep slowly accumulating when I see opportunities. If I see significant red flags or the company fails to deliver, I will not hesitate to get out.

Risks

MRNA remains a high-risk investment. Clinical trials can fail, regulatory approval is not guaranteed, and even approved products may take time to generate meaningful revenue. The company is still losing money, while declining COVID-related revenue puts more pressure on its newer products to succeed. The cash position gives Moderna runway, but the company still needs successful new product launches to return to sustainable profitability.

My Final Thoughts

I like Moderna as a high-risk, high-potential long-term investment. I am interested because of the potential for its mRNA platform to create a much broader business, especially in oncology.

The recent melanoma Phase 3 results make the story much more interesting to me, but I want to see the full data, additional clinical progress and eventually stronger financial performance. I am willing to take some calculated risk because I believe the potential opportunity is significant, but I also want to remain disciplined and be willing to change my view if the company fails to execute.

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of October 4, 2026) 

Equity	Suggested Price	Current Price	Suggested Date	% Change	My View
AAPL	12.90	333.69	1/25/13	🟢 2487%	HOLD
META	47.00	728.04	11/13/13	🟢 1449%	HOLD
MA	77.18	552.26	12/12/13	🟢 616%	HOLD
AMZN	15.58	251.52	4/12/14	🟢 1514%	HOLD
SHOP	13.48	151.39	11/25/18	🟢 1023%	HOLD
SPG	54.59	200.95	5/25/20	🟢 268%	HOLD
NVDA	23.90	234.23	2/13/22	🟢 880%	Buy on Dip below $210
TSLA	290.25	370.59	5/1/22	🟢 28%	Accumulate - Long term
SOXL	15.66	163.71	4/6/23	🟢 945%	HOLD
GOOG	123.25	340.05	5/21/23	🟢 176%	HOLD
PLTR	20.49	188.75	11/19/23	🟢 821%	HOLD
LRCX	76.16	347.49	11/11/24	🟢 356%	HOLD
RXRX	5.32	4.12	1/2/25	🔴 -23%	Accumulate
IONQ	37.46	43.91	2/18/25	🟢 17%	Accumulate
AVGO	203.64	355.14	4/5/25	🟢 74%	HOLD
APLD	11.18	25.38	6/15/25	🟢 127%	HOLD
HOOD	94.40	112.74	7/6/25	🟢 19%	HOLD
NBIS	65.47	242.90	9/7/25	🟢 271%	HOLD
AMD	214.16	633.91	1/1/26	🟢 196%	HOLD
VTV	196.99	217.23	4/4/26	🟢 10%	Accumulate - Long term
MU	542.21	1074.89	5/3/26	🟢 98%	Accumulate
DELL	420.91	562.52	5/31/26	🟢 34%	Buy on Dip
INTC	120.35	119.33	7/5/26	🔴 -1%	HOLD
MP	54.53	46.97	9/7/26	🔴 -14%	Buy on Dip
MRNA	190.01	190.01	10/4/26	0%	NEW ADDITION

Equity Sold since my Last Blog

None, but will dispose the mutual funds.

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.

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