Shesa's weekend Stock Market updates - 3|15|25

Welcome to the weekend's update

The stock market is going through chaos. None of the economic data were favorable last week. The U.S, Israel and Iran war is on its 17th day and no sign of abating.  The Oil price has pushed to $100 a barrel. You may be aware that oil prices had gone to about $125 on last Sunday night. For the week, Dow -2.0%, S&P 500 -1.6% to -2.0%, Nasdaq -1.3%. The economic numbers were bad this week but it may get ugly once we get the inflation numbers next month due to escalated oil prices. As we know, higher the oil price, higher becomes the transportation cost and correspondingly inflation. So, the future is looking gloomy. Having said that, there is one positive that I came across which gives some hope. I will write that later. 

Economic Report last week
  • The February consumer price index (CPI) a key inflation gauge was up 2.4% comparing to last year in-line with the estimates. 
  • Core CPI (- Food & Energy) : 2.5% vs Expected 2.5% (as expected)
  • Monthly: +0.3% (as expected)
  • PCE (Jan 2026, released Mar 13): 3.1% (highest in 2 years); MoM it was up 0.4%.
  • Q4 GDP: Q4 GDP was revised down sharply to 0.7%,  the weakest growth reading since Liberation Day tariffs crushed the economy a year ago. 
  • The consumer sentiment fell again, from 56.6 to 55.5.
  • Mortgage Rates: The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan hit 6.41% on Friday. Please note that it was 5.99% just two weeks ago.
Other News
NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference): It starts this week start March 16 - 19 at San Jose. This global conference focused on artificial intelligence (AI), accelerated computing, and related technologies, organized and hosted by NVIDIA. We have to wait and see what happens. 

Tesla (TSLA) said that its Tesla's China-made EV sales was up 91% in February. Sales of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles ‌made in its ⁠Shanghai plant, including exports to markets including Europe, totalled ⁠58,600 units last month, up 91% from a year earlier. There would be many catalysts for Tesla in next few months to year(s). This is a stock I will always keep and eye and keep accumulating.

Nabius (NBIS): NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in NBIS as part of a strategic partnership to develop hyperscale cloud infrastructure for the AI market. The shares were up 15% after the news.

HIMS: Novo Nordisk has dropped its legal case against telehealth provider Hims & Hers over patent infringement, after the two companies agreed Hims would sell Novo’s branded medicines through its platform. I will keep a close eye on this stock.

Oracle (ORCL) Q3 FY2026 Earnings

EPS: $1.79 (up 21% YoY) vs. $1.70.
Revenue: $17.2 billion (up 22% YoY vs. $16.9.
Cloud Revenue: $8.9B (up 44% YoY).
Guidance:
- FY2026 full year: Reaffirmed $67B revenue.
- FY2027: Raised revenue target to $90B vs $86.6B).
My View: It was a good quarter but for the year it was in-line with the estimates. However, for next year it provided better guidance. The stock may bounce back in the long term. But short-term it ma consolidate. But I will be cautious with the software companies. 

Economic Report this week
WED, 3/18: FOMC interest-rate decision ==> Nothing is expected to change
WED, 3/18: Producer price index (PPI)
THU, 3/19: New Home Sales

Stocks to watch
NVDA, TSLA, SOXL, GLD, SLV, HIMS, USO

What to expect?
As I said, the stock market is in a chaos. Higher oil prices, inflation fear, GDP is shrinking, consumer sentiment is going down. So, nothing positive to talk about at this time. Having said that, there are some positives. Whenever oil prices have a massive spikes > 40% in about 20 trading days, the stock market has gone up historically. This is surprising but the data from 1985 till date shows that's the case. The stock market has gone up from 1.8% in a month up to 31% after a year. So, whether the same history will repeat? We don't know but most of the time history repeats. I do not think the Oil price will stay above $100 for too long. Probably it may stay for a few days or few weeks but can't sustain in the long term. Hence, some hedging of oil stocks may not look illogical.  

Bottom line: It has not been a great investing environment, but let's not lose hope! Have a good evening and rest of the weekend!


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