Shesa's March 2026 Investment Blog

By Shesa Nayak

Welcome to Shesa’s investment Blog!

U.S Stock Market Update

The stock market in February was a horror for the technology investors. Nasdaq was hardest hit dropping -3.3% for the month and Dow +0.17% (9-month win streak), S&P 500 -0.86%. The stock market markets fell on hot inflation data, AI disruption fears of job cuts, private credit risks, and geopolitical scare. U.S., Israel and Iran war tensions are expected to push oil higher and thus inflation. The January’s producer price index (PPI) which is a measure of wholesale inflation was up 0.5%, much above 0.3% expected . The core PPI reading, which excludes food and energy prices, recorded huge 0.8% gain, much more than the 0.3% expected. The software companies stocks got obliterated and lost 20, 30, 40% in last few weeks after Anthropic launched  automation AI tools for Code, legal, finance, software models etc. 

Earnings: Most of the earnings for Q4 2025 are over now. Despite Nvidia’s (NVDA) great earnings and stellar guidance, it could not revive technology stocks. Earlier we many big tech companies also came with good earnings but it did not ignite investors interest.

Tariffs: On Friday, 2/20; the U.S Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s broad emergency tariffs. Now it’s expected that more than $175 billion in U.S. tariff collections are subject to potential refunds after the ruling. In turn, president Trump slapped 10%  global import tariffs and announced that it intent to raise it to 15%.

U.S, Israel vs. Iran War: Meanwhile, the war erupted on Friday night (U.S time). U.S. and Israel hit Iran with joint air strike killing supreme leader Khamenei. Iran retaliated and hit air bases of Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Dubai etc. Some of the airports including Dubai were hit by drones. Families are stuck. It has been a very chaotic situation. The oil prices are expected to jump big in the short term. Also, watch for Gold and Silver which should further shoot up due to the current Geopolitical situation, growing inflation and dollar devaluation. As I write this blog, Nasdaq future is down -0.93%. We will see how the market opens and sustain tomorrow. 

Overall, this is not a great market to be an investor, particularly in technology investor. So, what should we do? I will share my views but I will discuss it later but first let’s see the stock market index:

	2026
Indexes	Close FRI 12/31/25	Close FRI 2/27/26	Change in 2026	% Change in 2026
DOW	48,063.99	48,977.92	913.93	1.90
S&P 500	6,845.5	6878.88	33.38	0.49
NASDAQ	23,241.99	22,668.21	-573.78	-2.47
Russel 2000	2,481.91	2,632.36	150.45	6.06
SOX (Semi)	8,083.13	8,098.37	15.24	0.19

Economic news

•  Consumer Confidence: Rebounded to 91.2 vs. 87.

•  Inflation: January CPI/Inflation was down to 2.4% y/y (from 2.7%); core 2.5%; disinflation trend confirmed, but upside risks from tariffs remain

•  GDP Outlook: Q4 2025 growth revised/slowed to 1.4%, full 2025 2.2%, IMF/Fed forecasts 2026 growth at 2.1–2.4% (acceleration expected).

•  Labor Market: Weak job creation persisted unemployment 4.3%

• Other: House prices up modestly; tariff impacts raised inflation concerns; value stocks led market rotation amid policy shifts.

Economic Report next week 

• Mon, March 2: ISM Manufacturing
• Wed, March 4: ISM Services
• Fri, March 6: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment 

Current Market Situation

As I said in my opening remarks, current market situation is little scary particularly to be a technology investor. Many tech companies came with solid results and guidance were good but stocks pulled back or smacked rather than going up. The money is rotating from technology stocks to the defensive stocks, gold, silver etc. I love technology stocks and many of you would be loving too. But I think it’s time to re-think. Because tech stocks are stinking to Wall Street. Let me give you a quick example, NVDA which has 70%+ revenue growth and earnings growth is trading future earnings of 22, and Walmart (WMT) which has revenue growth has 5.6% and profit growth of -19.4% trading at future earnings of 43 which is almost double of NVDA!! BTW: Costco (COST) trades at 50 times next year’s earnings. This tells me that for Wall Street Fundamental does not matter at this time. I am not saying WMT or COST are bad companies or bad stocks, but what it means is, investors want to rotate to conservative stocks possibly because they feel them as less volatile and safe. I do not see any other investment logic..

Overall, Nasdaq is down only -2.5% for the year but a large number of tech stocks have been decimated 20,30, 40, 50%. Many of them seem like catching a falling knife. It’s better to be invested but it’s also very important to have some cash. Furthermore, diversifying into some defensive stocks, gold and silver ETFs may be extremely useful at least in the short term, till we see sign of money start rotating back to technology stocks. The software stocks have been obliterated due to the news of Anthropic automation and modeling tools. Many of these software stocks may never see all-time high again. If some tech stocks were the king of their own space earlier viz. software, does not mean that they will bounce back hard, unless there is any major changes in the trend. It’s hard to say but I doubt it may happen in the foreseeable future. As an investor, we need to acclimatize to the changing market situation. It’s little late but it’s never too late.. 

Since U.S is directly involved in the current War (U.S, Israel and Iran), we do not really know how it will go and how long it will continue. Longer the war, the oil price will remain escalated causing more inflation and chances of future rate cuts recedes.  I have trimmed many of my tech stocks and possibly eliminate some speculative ones. The time and situation demands that. So, giving a thought about defensive stocks or commodities like gold and silver may be logical at the very moment. Probably, looking into some good ETF value fund, defense, energy, utilities may not be a bad options. This year, some of the small cap stocks are also doing well - Russel 2000 index is up 6% in 2026. So, it makes sense to look into that area too. These are just my personal opinion and every investor should analyze what is best for them. 

Should we abandon Teach Stocks? Based on my aforesaid facts, one may think that I am suggesting to abandon tech stocks. No, absolutely not! In last few decades growth stocks have outpaced value stocks. So, in the long run growth tech stocks should potentially still win. If you see best stocks based on ROI in last 10, 20 years then, mostly you will find tech stocks. I still like /love some tech stocks which I think have great long term potential. If they go down, I do not panic. Bottomline: we need to diligently decide what to hold, what to sell, what to trim and what to accumulate. We should invest on what we are comfortable. It’s purely our personal decision. 

Stock Market TOP sectors for 2025 (as of 3/1/26)

Sector	Performance in 2026 in %
Energy (TOP)	24.41
Materials	15.98
Consumer Staples	17.23
Industrials	14.05
Utilities	11.32
Real Estate	9.14
Information Technology	-5.60
Financials (WORST)	-6.34

You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:

Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd

Now let me discuss this month’s pick for my Blog Portfolio.

iShare Silver Trust (SLV) 

SLV is the ETF that tracks the price of physical silver bullion. It provides easy exposure to silver prices without owning the metal directly and has a very less expense ratio: 0.50%. It enables the investor to hold silver without physically owning it. Here is why I like silver in addition to Gold ETF that I wrote last month.

Why do I like SLV?

• Geopolitical tensions: As I wrote earlier, the war between US-Israel and Iran strikes and other geopolitical situations, investors prefer safe-haven assets like gold and silver. And we know gold and silvers have been on fire since last year.
• Inflation Hedge: Gold and silver are good inflation hedge as we keep seeing a big uptick in PCE data which was significantly higher than expected
• Industrial and Other demands: About 60% of total solar PV, EVs, AI/data centers, electronics, silver coins, ornaments etc.
• Persistent supply deficit: Silver has 6th consecutive year of structural shortage based on current demand
• Investment flows rebounding amid uncertainty, tariffs, inflation concerns, lots of institutions are taking positions in the metal causing the Silver price to rocket.

Performance

Silver has been on fire. Let’s take a look to its Return on Investment (ROI)

• Year To Date: 27%
• 1 Year: 202%
• 3 Years: 64%
• 5 Years: 234%

Strategy

Currently, the SLV is trading at $85.27 as of last Friday. The 52-week high for this ETF is $109.83, down about -22% from its all-time high. In the current volatile market, it may be sensible to have some position on Gold and Silver. Last month, I added GLD. I also added some SLV, but I thought its time to add SLV to the blog portfolio visualizing the current situation. Having said that,  one should not over-do because if the geopolitical situation calm or inflation expectations come down then the commodities prices like gold and silver may take a hit in short term. Though, I do not emphasize too much on analysts target but they say Silver prices to range from $90 - $150 in 2026. If that’s true, it will undoubtedly a good investment. Because when silver price goes up, SLV may see substantial appreciations.

Risks

As we could see above, SLV has gone up significantly. If geopolitical calm or inflation expectations come down or industrial demand subside then Silver prices may take a hit. In case, the economy gets into deflationary situation or institutions start selling then it may be hit hard. So, caution is warranted!

My final thoughts

Silver prices have been on fire for little over a year. Visualizing the current market uncertainty,  geopolitical situation, volatility, sticky inflation, diversification to commodities like gold and silver makes total sense to have some positions. SLV offers easy, efficient exposure to silver with long-term upside. Probably 5-10-15% of portfolio in metals like Gold and Silver is not a bad idea. I see the opportunity now, so invested little bit but I may keep adding on any pullback.

A few key earnings update

NVIDIA (NVDA) - Fiscal Q4 2026

• EPS: $1.62 vs. est. $1.53)

• Revenue: $68.13B (beat est. $65.8–$66.2B), +73% YoY

• Data Center revenue: $62.3B (beat est. ~$60.2–$60.7B), +75% YoY

Guidance (Fiscal Q1 2027):

• Revenue: $78B ±2% (~$76.44–$79.56B), beat est. $72.8B (+77% YoY implied)

• No China data center revenue assumed in outlook.

See the revenue growth since 2014 till date below, it’s phenomenal.

2026: $215.9 billion

2025: $130.5 billion

2024: $60.9 billion

2023: $26.9 billion

2016: $5 billion

2015: $4.6 billion

2014: $4.1 billion

My view: It was very good quarter and guidance was fantastic still the stock went down and could not review tech stocks. Despite the pullback, if one tech stock which is really very cheap based on its fundamentals and future growth then that’s NVDA. Hence, I still like to add on pullback.

IONQ (IonQ) - Fiscal Q4 2025 (ended Dec 31, 2025; reported Feb 25, 2026):

• Adj. EPS: -$0.20 (beat est. -$0.48 to -$0.51)

• Revenue: $61.9M (beat est. $40.4M), +429% YoY

• Full Year 2025 Revenue: $130M (+202% YoY, beat own guidance midpoint by 20%)

Guidance (2026):

• Revenue: $225M–$245M (midpoint $235M, above est. $196M)

• Q1 2026 Revenue: $48M–$51M (above est. $37M)

My view: It was a very good quarter. The stock was up 21% after the results. Short term there will be volatility in the tech stocks but this is a good one for the longterm in the space of quantum computing. 

CoreWeave (CRWV) Q4 2025 Actual vs Expected:

• Revenue: Actual $1.57B vs Expected $1.55B (beat)

• Adjusted EPS: Actual -$0.56 vs Expected -$0.49 (miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA: Actual $898M vs Expected $929-936M (miss)

• Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance: $1.9-2.0B vs Expected $2.29B (below)

My view: I felt CRWV results and future guidance was very disappointing. I will reduce position at this time.

TEM (Tempus AI) - Q4 2025 (latest, reported Feb 24, 2026):

• Adj. EPS: -$0.04 (beat est. -$0.05 to -$0.14)

• Revenue: $367.2M (beat est. $362–363M, +83% YoY)

• Guidance: FY26 rev $1.59B (25% growth), Adj. EBITDA $65M

My view: I am holding this as I still see potential for long-term

HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) - Q4 2025 (latest, reported Feb 23, 2026):

• EPS: $0.08 (beat est. $0.03–$0.04)

• Revenue: $617.8M (miss/in-line est. $619M)

• Guidance: Q1 2026 rev $600–625M (below est. $654M); FY26 rev $2.7–2.9B (in-line est. $2.74B), EBITDA $300–375M

My view: I am holding this as I still see potential. I would like to wait on this with patience.

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of March 3, 2026)

Equity	Suggested Price	Current Price	Suggested Date	% Change	My View  (see disclaimer)
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
AAPL	12.9	264.18	1/25/13	1948%	HOLD
META	47	648.18	11/13/13	1279%	HOLD
MA	77.18	517.21	12/12/13	570%	HOLD
AMZN	15.58	210	4/12/14	1248%	HOLD
SHOP	13.48	120.73	11/25/18	796%	HOLD
SPG	54.59	203.85	5/25/20	273%	HOLD
NVDA	23.9	177.19	2/13/22	641%	Buy on Dip
TSLA	290.25	402.51	5/1/22	39%	Accumulate - Long term
RKT	14.24	18.19	7/6/25	28%	HOLD
SOXL	15.66	62.77	4/6/23	301%	Buy on Dip
GOOG	123.25	311.43	5/21/23	153%	HOLD
PLTR	20.49	137.19	11/19/23	570%	HOLD
ENVX	10.48	5.27	4/28/24	-50%	Trimmed, may Sell
Z	51.92	44.62	8/11/24	-14%	HOLD
LRCX	76.16	233.89	11/11/24	207%	Buy on Dip
RXRX	5.32	3.67	1/2/25	-31%	HOLD
IONQ	37.46	38.37	2/18/25	2%	Accumulate - Long term
AVGO	203.64	319.55	4/5/25	57%	HOLD
APLD	11.18	27.27	6/15/25	144%	HOLD
HOOD	94.4	75.85	7/6/25	-20%	HOLD (Trimmed)
CRWV	104.14	79.56	8/3/25	-24%	HOLD (Trimmed)
NBIS	65.47	91.19	9/7/25	39%	HOLD (Trimmed)
HIMS	53.95	14.52	10/12/25	-73%	HOLD
TEM	71.56	53.25	11/9/25	-26%	HOLD
AMD	214.16	200.21	1/1/26	-7%	HOLD
GLD	455.46	483.75	2/8/26	6%	Accumulate
SLV	85.27	85.27	3/1/26	0%	NEW ADDITION
MUTUAL FUND
PRMTX	59.45	129.75	12/20/14	118%	HOLD
FSRPX	9.05	18.48	1/15/16	104%	HOLD

Equity Sold since my Last Blog

None

Here is my YouTube channel link:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCt7oLVUMG3NkJUzAVUzl4Tg

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.

Note: Click on Blog archives to read all my Blogs and updates.