Shesa's Weekend Updates - 09|01|25

Welcome to Shesa's Weekend Updates
We saw a reasonably good month of August for the stock market despite the pullback at the end of last week. The S&P 500 was up 0.23% for the week, despite hitting a record high of 6,502 on Thursday. It was the fourth winning month in a row. The Nasdaq  was down -0.6% and DOW was down 0.2% for the week. Last Friday, the technology stocks were hammered due to inflation fear, and that FED may not cut rates soon. Having said that, the month of August was reasonable. But now we are now in September. This month may become volatile due to low liquidity in the market because of institutional investors absence helps short sellers and hedge funds to take advantage. In addition, the September fear that market does not do well. We will have to wait for lots of data going forward that may determine market direction. Hence, it's better to be little cautions. Because September has been the WORST month for the stock market in last 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The job reports this week, followed by CPI and PPI numbers next week may create further volatility and determine market direction with no major earnings this quarter except Broadcom. 

How did the Stock Index do in AUGUST?
NASDAQ: up 1.6% for the month.
S&P 500: Up 1.53%, fourth straight positive month.
DOW: was up 3% for the month

Last week's economic report 
•  PCE Inflation (July 2025):
•  Annual: 2.6%, in line with expectations.
•  Core PCE: 2.9%
•  Consumer Spending (July): Up 0.5% month-over-month, slightly below estimates.
•  Unemployment Rate (July): 4.2%, steady but up from earlier lows.
•  Fed Funds Rate: 5.25–5.5%, unchanged; markets expect a 25–50 bps cut in September.
•  GDP Growth (Q2 2025): Annualized 3%, revised up from 2.8%.


Earnings Last week

Nvidia (NVDA) beats on top and bottom line, provides higher guidance

Revenue: Actual $46.74B vs. Expected $46.06B, up 56% YoY.
EPS: Actual $1.05 vs. Expected $1.01, up 59% YoY.
Data Center Revenue: Actual $41.1B vs. Expected $41.3B (small miss)
Guidance $54.0B (±2%) vs. Expected $51.46B.

My view: another solid quarter despite a small miss on Data Center revenue. As I said during my investment meet, any pullback could be a chance to accumulate for long term. AI is still the best and has a long way to go. There may be some pullbacks but in the long run, I guess we may still see better ROI in AI and Nvidia.

Snowflake (SNOW) Q2 2026 earnings, reported August 27, 2025:
• Revenue: Actual $1.09B vs. Expected $1.09B
• EPS: Actual $0.27 vs. Expected $0.26
Guidance: $4.40B vs. $4.33B.
Also customer retaining rate was higher than Street expectations.

My View: SNOW earnings was OK but guidance was better. Added a small position.

Earnings this week
  • One key earning that I will be looking is Broadcom (AVGO) The company reports on Thursday, 9/4 after the close of Market. I am optimistic on this. But we will see how they guide for next quarter. This stock has been doing great despite some volatility.
  • 9/3: Salesforce (CRM) => I will believe this company only when they show the earning and forecast. It's one of the most lethargic stock for now. 
Economic Report this week
TUE, Sep 2: ISM Manufacturing
WED, Sep 3: Job Openings
THU, Sep 4: ADP Employment, ISM Services
FRI, Sep 5: U.S Job/Employment Report ==> VERY IMPORTANT

What to expect in the stock market?
The job report on Friday will be extremely important for FED's future action. So, we must keep an eye on this. In addition, as I keep saying, September is the worst month for the stock market and we are already there. We may see a small summer rally in next few days but then it may start becoming rocky based on historical evidence. Hence, a cautious approach is warranted. I discussed at length in my last investment meet and may write in my next blog. So, better to be mentally prepared and have a strategy. I also discussed the strategy earlier. 

U.S - India Tariff
Based on the latest news from X - President Trump told on September 1, 2025, via Truth Social that India offered to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero, but India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar disputed this, stating talks are ongoing and “nothing is decided till everything is.” No official confirmation of a zero-tariff offer exists from India. Trump’s claim followed U.S. imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods, partly due to India’s Russian oil purchases. We will see how it goes...I won't take it until confirmed!

Stocks to watch
AVGO, NVDA, AMD, TSLA, NBIS, CRWV, ALAB, HOOD, OPEN, SOXL, TQQQ, META, RDDT, FAS, MSFT, ORCL, CRM

My next blog: Possibly next weekend. Stay tuned!

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