Stock Market Weekly Updates 9|21|25

Welcome to Shesa's weekly Stock market updates

This September has been fabulous thus far reversing the trend of the worst month. Last week, the indexes posted strong gains. The S&P 500 and Dow are up 1.2% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq is up 2.2%. The Russell 2000 gained 2.2%, notched its seventh weekly advance all-time high first time since 2021. The Nasdaq has gone up 5.48% and S&P has gone up 3.16% this month. 

Why did the market go up? 

On Wednesday, 9/17, the Federal Reserve did cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the first time since December, targeting labor market weakness like rising unemployment. The Fed fund rate stands at 4%-4.25%. Also Fed Chairman indicated that more cuts expected in 2025; economy growth forecast up to 1.6%; one dissent on policy; signals easing cycle amid steady inflation.

Intel (INTC) shares rallied about 26% after Nvidia (NVDA) said it will invest $5 billion in the chipmaker to co-develop data center and PC chips. Shares of Nvidia jumped more than 3%. Tesla has a fantastic run contributing to the indexes surge. A few selected AI related stocks and Quantum computing stocks were on fire! The government departments like Department of Energy, Air Force awarded contacts to IONQ, RGTI. This is a very good sign for Quantum Computing stocks as the government emphasize to be ahead on the technology. As I have been saying, Quantum Computing is the next growth area. But one must invest carefully and take profits when needed. Apple (AAPL) sales of iPhone 17 seems to have taken a good start last week. However, it's now almost as expensive as Nvidia (NVDA). Apple has 10% revenue growth and 12% profit growth but NVDA has 56% revenue growth and 84% profit growth. So, one must think diligently.

A few key news

Tesla (TSLA) shareholders must vote by October 27, 2025, for the 2025 Annual Meeting on November 6, 2025. The record date is September 15, 2025. If you are a Tesla shareholders, please don't forget to vote. Because this is extremely critical for the company and stock. Elon Musk is the KEY to the success of Tesla. By the way, Elon’s net worth has gone past $500B, richest on the planet!!

Trump administration has enacted a new immigration law to pay $100,000 fee for H-1B worker visas. It will be applicable only for the new H1 Visa application. The change of rule would critically impact Indian IT companies like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL etc..

Indian IT companies earned $139 billion from U.S outsourcing in FY2025, 62% of total $224 billion total IT services export revenue. With the incorporation of new H1-B fees, the IT Sector would face about $2-3B cost increase, impacting 5-7% of $50B US-driven revenue. In addition, there may be less inflow of money to India because of less H-B holders. Overall, it may impact the Indian IT job market and so also consumer spending. Furthermore, it won't be surprising if the renewal fees for H-B, and B1 visa increases in future and more restrictions on offshoring. So, India and U.S confrontation rather than negotiation may create a difficult business environment. I would not like to write more in the weekend updates. today, Donald Trump said that Rupert Murdoch (Fox news Owner) and his son may be involved in TikTok deal in the U.S. Oracle and Dell are also expected to be involved in the deal.

Should we be invested now?

Absolutely. When economic is reasonably strong and the interest rate cut happens, stock markets tend to do well. That’s the reason this September has been one of the best month even though September happens to be the worst month for the stock market. Having said that, most of the stocks and the stock market has gone up significantly. So, we can expect some small pullbacks now and then, hence better to take some chips out of the table. This is a good time to be invested rather than sitting on the sidelines and not to miss the opportunities. Having said that,  and accumulate some CASH to leverage any pullback. Also, with the euphoria, let'a not forget to have some hedging to protect the portfolio. Whenever there is a dip it may bring good trading opportunities. On June 23rd, I have sent a message to my WhatsApp group that it's better to be remain invested. Since then market has gone up about 15%! Having said that, one must diligently analyze what is good to buy rather than chasing any given stock. Because sometime chasing may be dangerous. That's just my view. However, every investor should decide based on their own comfort level. 

Economic news this week

WED, 9/24: Existing Home Sales

THU, 9/25: GDP (third estimate), Existing home sales

FRI, 9/26: PCE index (Fed's preferred Inflation gauge)

What to expect going forward?

I have written above under "Should we be Invested now". The interest rate cut provides momentum to the market when it's a good cut. What do I mean good rate cut? It means, when economic is doing well and Federal Reserve cuts rate the stock market tends to do well. Under such environment small cap stock do well because of cheap landing rates to brood money for business. This also helps interest sensitive stocks like Real Estate, technology, consumer discretionary, financials etc. It also increases the liquidity in the stock market, hence equities do well. But market never goes up on a straight line, so there may be dips and that may be good buying opportunity.

Stocks to watch

ORCL, TSLA, NVDA, AVGO, CRWV, NBIS, IONQ, ALAB, RDDT, META, HOOD, CVNA, TEM, OPEN, APLD, QS, ENVX.

Have a goos rest of your weekend!