Shesa's October 2025 Investment Blog

By Shesa Nayak

Welcome to Shesa’s Investment Blog

I will have a shorter version of my blog this month. 

U.S. Stock Market Update 

September happens to be the worst month of the year but we saw an exceptional September with S&P 500 up 3.5%, Nasdaq up 5.6% and Dow rose 1.9%. The market further gained momentum in October but last week the U.S. stock market saw significant volatility. The S&P 500 fell -2.4%, the Nasdaq dropped -2.5%, and the Dow declined -2.7%, marking their largest single-day percentage drops since April 10. Despite hitting record highs earlier in the week, driven by AI optimism and a tech rally, markets took a U turn on last Friday after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1 or sooner in response to China’s response on rare earth exports on port fees on U.S. vessels sparking trade war fears. The S&P 500 closed at 6,553 points, down 2.71% on October 10, while the Nasdaq lost 3.6%. I used such opportunities to accumulate. The government shutdown, entering its second week, delayed key economic data, increasing uncertainty. So far, approximately 4,000 federal employees have been laid off due to shutdown. Investors turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which surpassed $4,000 per ounce, and bitcoin, hitting $126,000.

No Economic News - Govt. Shutdown

As you may be aware, there is no economic news are being published due to government shutdown. Per Trump administration the lay-offs of federal workers have already started. The labor market is already in a downward spiral. The latest ADP report was terrible. The private sector lost -32,000 jobs vs. adding 150,000 jobs expected by Wall Street.

Federal Reserve

What does the above mean? Despite some spikes in the inflation numbers, CPI, PPI, PCE; the FED may not have much choice but cut interest rate further. As we all know, jobs are the most important thing where consumer spending takes place which is about 70% of U.S GDP. Consumers spend more when they have a job and they feel secure about their job. But the current environment unfortunately is different. There are more job losses than job generation.

Q3 Earnings

Banks starts reporting this week starting Tuesday, 10/14, followed by big tech earnings next week - NFLX (10/2), TSLA (10/22). On the weeks of 10/26, we will see marathon of big tech earnings.

Stock Market 

Now that the U.S stock market is almost at the peak barring last Friday’s pullback, should we be invested, take profits, get out of the market, remain on the sidelines or what an investor should do? I will briefly share my views but before that let’s see the stock market indices.

Indexes	Close TUE 12/30/24	Close FRI 9/5/25	Change in 2025	% Change in 2025
DOW	42,544.22	45479.6	2,935.38	6.90
S&P 500	5,881.63	6552.51	670.88	11.41
NASDAQ	19310.79	22204.43	2,893.64	14.98
Russel 2000	2,230.16	2,394.59	164.43	7.37
SOX (Semi)	4,979.93	6,407.60	1,427.67	28.67

General Market Trends in October

Usually October is not the worst month of the year rather it’s September. However, this year we saw a fantastic September. In general October is not as bad as September. Since 1928, S&P 500 has returned +0.51 in the month of October. Having said that, October is on of the most volatile month. There are many major market crashes in the past which took place in October. Let’s have a quick look. 

• 1907 Bank Panic: In mid-Oct NYSE crashed -50% from its peak the previous year. Pls note it’s not a typo..
• Oct 28 and Oct 29, 1929: DOW crashed -12,82% and -11.73%, 24% in two days due to overvaluation of stocks, excessive speculation, and a faltering economy
• Black Monday October 19, 1987: Dow plummeted -22.6% in a single day. This was the biggest stock market crash in history in a single day. Reason: rising interest rates, a large US trade deficit, a declining dollar
• 2008 Subprime Mortgage Financial Market Collapse. Reason: Housing bubble, Risky Loan, widespread defaults and foreclosures

Should we be invested in this market?

• Negatives
• The market is almost at its peak
• October is one of the most volatile month
• Economic numbers are not good: higher inflation, lower employment
• Consumers confidence is down
• Now federal government shutdown
• US vs. China trade war continues

As we can see above, most of the things are negative, so why does market still going up? Are the investors crazy?

So, why invest?
Should we remain on the sidelines? Is it not hype? Why invest when market has gone up so much? Why not preserve our savings? Many such questions come to our mind, particularly for the retail investors. When I wrote it in the WhatsApp group, I did not see much response. What does it mean? It most likely means many of the retail investors are apprehensive about the stock market. And that’s one of the good sign that there is some apprehensive. When people become irrationally exuberant, that’s the real time to be worried. In this case, if the readers were excited then there could have been larger response. 

But am I bullish? Absolutely. When overall economic situation is not great (see negatives). But there are many reasons to be bullish.

The most important thing to remember as an investors is “what’s the trend?”. The current trend is AI. Most of the companies who are related to AI or AI related infrastructures are doing quite well and others are lackluster. Off late, some other stocks have started picking up which is a welcome news for the stock market. But are the AI stocks alike .com bubble? Nope, they are not. Look at the explosive earnings (revenue and profits) from the AI giants like NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN, TSLA, PLTR, TSM etc. According to Gartner, global AI spending is expected to be $1.5 trillion this year. Only the big tech companies like MSFT, META, GOOG and AMZN plan to spend $364 billion in 2025. In addition, over $100 billion by OpenAI, Arabian countries, EU countries and so on. I read that it could be a Ponzi scheme. I don’t agree to such thesis. Let’s say, if OpenAI needs GPU why not buy from the leader NVDA rather than go and buy from other sources or other countries? If OpenAi needs the data center or some models, why not use Oracle or CoreWeave. It’s about partnership and sharing the resources based on their strength and weaknesses. Ultimately, no one can do everything. Can NVDA alone build 100s of Data Centers with all expertise within the timeline and in different geographies? Absolutely not! The only risk is I can see is “hopefully these AI companies are not over spending!!”. Only time will tell depending on their return on investment (ROI) in future. During .com bubble the stocks were going parabolic by adding .com to their names and opening a website. Most of the companies did not have much revenue or in many cases no revenue at all. It was a bubble. Remember pets.com, space.com, Ariba, CommerceOne, JDS Uniphase, Lucent, Exodus communication etc. which were being hyped and the stocks used to go parabolic on news in a given day. And most of the companies do not exist any more. But the difference now is, most of the AI companies are generating substantial revenues and profits particularly big tech companies. The Data Center companies like CRWV, NBIS, APLD have not much revenue  at this time but significant percentage of revenue growth is expected and it has already started showing in their quarterly results. They will generate significantly more in the foreseeable future. I can write a few pages on this but let me stop here.

Bottomline: As I wrote in my WhatsApp group - if we are not invested since last few months in the right stocks then we may be missing one of the biggest AI BULL RUN in the stock market history. In this market mostly AI and AI related infrastructure stocks - data center, industrial,  utilities, financials are working. Follow the trend, follow where the money is being invested by institutions, mutual funds, corporations. If we are not invested in this market and keep taking some profits then the huge AI BULL RUN is missed. I have been telling this since last couple of year that “AI is not a hype!”. If we think, the “market is going up for no reason”, “It’s all hype”, “market is scary” and not feeling comfortable to trade/invest then that’s our choice. If we don’t invest in the upturn then what happens when that downturn comes!! So, when time is better leverage it, good times does not last for ever. Stock market is very brutal!! Let’s not forget that. Some trading and recycling the money is so important to get better return on investment (ROI). A time will come when market may end up in a significant downturn or possibly a market crash. That time may come but probably we are not there yet! But I may be totally wrong!! It’s our hard earned money, so we should invest or not invest is our own decision. But let’s not regret in future that “I missed the boat, I missed the opportunity”. In general, October tends to be volatile particularly in the first half until the big tech earnings comes. After that, if earnings are good then we may see uptick to the end of the year but not on a straight-line. We can read tweets and news but that should not be a determinant for investments. Rather, I will welcome such opportunity to accumulate the stock of my choice trim as needed.These are just my opinion not any kind of recommendation. Every investor must access their own investment opportunity and risks.

My Strategy in current market environment

There is no change in my strategy. In fact, it’s working well so won’t change anything at this time. But possibly focussing little more on hedging makes sense since market is almost at the peak . If you want to read my strategy, please refer to my September blog. 

Stock Market TOP sectors for 2025

Sector	YTD Performance in %age
Information Technology (TOP)	19.71
Communication Services	19.53
Utilities	18.95
Industrials	13.73
Financials	7.87
Energy	-0.28

You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:

Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd

Now let me discuss this month’s stock for Blog Portfolio.

Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS) 

Hims & Hers Health operates a telehealth platform that connects consumers to licensed healthcare professionals in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company provides prescription medication on a recurring basis and ongoing care from healthcare providers, over-the-counter drug and device products, cosmetics etc. It primarily focusses on general wellness, sexual health and wellness, skincare, and hair care. 

Why do I like HIMS?

HIMS operates a one of the most important area of direct-to-consumer telehealth platform, initially focused on men’s health issues like erectile dysfunction, hair loss, and mental health, while expanding into women’s health and broader wellness categories. The company has diverse opportunities in telehealth consultations, proprietary medications, and subscription-based services. HIMS has been doing excellent and has emerged as a front runner in the area of telehealth and wellness sector. The company’s growth is fueled by increasing consumer adoption, particularly among younger demographics who value convenience and discretion. The company has robust revenue growth, improving profitability, and a scalable platform that is out performing. The company has capitalized on the AI trend, leveraging AI for personalized treatments and a seamless user experience to build a loyal customer base. As of Q2 2025, the company had 2.4 million subscribers. Its subscriber count grew to 1.5 million in Q2 2025, up 50% year-over-year, with average revenue per user also rising due to expanded offerings like mental health services and women’s health products under the HERS brand. Strategic partnerships, such as with pharmacies and healthcare providers, further enhance its market reach and operational efficiency.

Please note that Healthcare leads AI adoption comparing to any sector in the market, driven by diagnostics, drug discovery, and personalized medicine. Over 60% of healthcare firms use AI, with $14B invested in 2024 alone. Key players like Tempus AI (TEM) and HIMS leverage AI for data analytics and telehealth, boosting efficiency and growth.

Financials

• In Q2 2025, HIMS reported 73% year-over-year revenue growth reaching at 2.01 billion,  and profit growth of 219%. 
• Current Quarter: Company projects revenue of $570 - $590 million in the current quarter
• Full Year: It projects and $2.3B - $2.4B for 2025. If that projection hold true then it would be more than 100% revenue growth. 

Strategy

The stock is currently trading at $53.95. The 52-week high for this stock is $72.98, down about  -27% from its high. The stock has gone up significantly from $18.33 to $53.95 in last one year. The forward P/E is 82 which is not cheap. The company is selling with a forward P/E of 82 which is quite high. But if we see the Price to Sales which is a better way to judge an early statge growth company is only 7. 

Despite the higher valuations and Risks (pls see below), it’s one of the best growth stock in the market visualizing its current growth and future potential . I have been accumulating this stock since last few months. I will keep accumulating strategically to my current position or keep trimming as the situation demands. As most of my blog readers know, I am  a growth investor and usually I never buy any stock at once. I always buy in small quantities in a phased manner. I use such opportunity to accumulate and build my portfolio. I also add some Options based on its prospects. When the stock goes up, it’s extremely important for me to take some chips out of the table and book some profits. That’s part of my strategy. Also, HIMS is a growth and volatile stock, hence some hedging is important to mitigate/protect from any significant downside. The company’s next quarter result is expected on November 3, so one can wait to get more clarity. But I may slowly keep accumulating if the stock pulls back further.

Risks

As I said above, obviously it’s not a cheap stock. Also, there could be regulatory risks, such as changes in telehealth prescribing laws or compounded GLP-1 drug regulations, pose challenges.  But HIMS has diversified its portfolio to mitigate these concerns. Its cash flow positivity and debt-free balance sheet provide resilience against market volatility. This stock is advisable only for the growth investors who can absorb volatility and do not panic. Otherwise, better to stay away.

My final thoughts

HIMS is a growth company in the Healthcare sector. Though the sector is not doing great there are few companies who doing exceedingly well in this sector and HIMS is one of the top performer. There is another compelling one but I thought this has better stability and growth combined. It’s also an expensive stock by any measure but growth stocks are always like that because they are valued not based on their past performance rather future potential. Wall Street loves that. Having said that, if I see any red flag on any of my holding, then I don’t hesitate to pull the trigger irrespective of how great the company/stock may be. I do NOT fall in love with any stock. So, emotions should not impact my investment decision. At this time, I feel HIMS has a great potential, hence I am invested.

Some other news

Applied Digital (APLD): The company released another strong quarter. Revenue $64.2M (up 84% YoY, beat $50M est.). EPS -$0.11 (beat -$0.14 est.). Net loss $27.8M. The contracted revenue increased to $11 billion. The stock has gone up 204% since I added to my blog 3 months ago!

NBIS: This has been a solid AI infrastructure stock up 98% since I added to my blog last month. 

Tesla (TSLA) has launched new affordable model Y and model 3. I will say $5K less with some configuration changes. So, nothing exciting! It also released latest major updates of FSD Version: 14.1 which has some nice features. Nvidia (NVDA) to invest up to $2B equity in Elon Musk’s xAI.

AMD: Yesterday AMD and OpenAI had a multi-year deal to supply AI chips starting 2026 for tens of billions in revenue, plus OpenAI’s option for a 10% stake in AMD. This sparked the rally in AMD stock.

A few Equity/Stocks to watch (not a recommendation)

• NBIS
• APLD
• NVDA
• CRWV
• TSLA
• AVGO
• TEM
• ALAB
• SOXL
• TQQQ
• ORCL
• RDDT
• META
• MSFT
• DASH
• ENVX
• GOOG
• AMZN
• CVNA
• RXRX
• SNOW
• OPEN

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of OCT 12, 2025)

Equity	Suggested Price	Current Price	Suggested Date	% Change	My View  (see disclaimer)
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
AAPL	12.9	245.27	1/25/13	1801%	HOLD
META	47	705.30	11/13/13	1401%	Accumulate
MA	77.18	557.48	12/12/13	622%	HOLD
AMZN	15.58	216.37	4/12/14	1289%	Accumulate
SHOP	13.48	151.02	11/25/18	1020%	HOLD
SPG	54.59	175.3	5/25/20	221%	HOLD
NVDA	23.9	167.02	2/13/22	599%	Accumulate
TSLA	290.25	413.49	5/1/22	42%	Accumulate
RKT	14.24	16.39	7/6/25	15%	Accumulate
SOXL	15.66	34.21	4/6/23	118%	Accumulate
GOOG	123.25	237.49	5/21/23	93%	Accumulate
PLTR	20.49	175.44	11/19/23	756%	Accumulate
PANW	142.06	208.55	3/31/24	47%	Accumulate
ENVX	10.48	12.07	4/28/24	15%	Accumulate
Z	51.92	69.69	8/11/24	34%	HOLD
LRCX	76.16	131.37	11/11/24	72%	Accumulate on dip
RXRX	5.32	4.61	1/2/25	-13%	Accumulate
IONQ	37.46	70.65	2/18/25	89%	Accumulate
AVGO	203.64	324.63	4/5/25	59%	Accumulate
APLD	11.18	33.99	6/15/25	204%	Accumulate
HOOD	94.4	138.96	7/6/25	47%	Accumulate
CRWV	104.14	138.43	8/3/25	33%	Accumulate
NBIS	65.47	129.58	9/7/25	98%	Accumulate
HIMS	53.95	53.95	10/12/25	0%	NEW ADDITION
	ETF
IHF	27.82	40.81	8/16/15	47%	SOLD
MUTUAL FUND
PRMTX	59.45	171.19	12/20/14	188%	HOLD
FSRPX	9.05	19.13	1/15/16	111%	HOLD

Equity Sold since my Last Blog

IHF

Here is my YouTube channel link:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCt7oLVUMG3NkJUzAVUzl4Tg

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.

Note: Click on Blog archives to read all my Blogs and updates.