Shesa's Weekend Stock Market Updates - 8|17|25

Welcome to Shesa's Weekend Updates

The major stock indexes remained green territory last week, however. The Dow outperformed, up 2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained about 1% week for the week. For the year, Dow has gained 5.6%, S&P is up 9.6% and Nasdaq the champion with 11.97%. 

Economic Reports last week
Consumer price index (CPI): Inflation rose 2.7% on an annualized basis in July vs. 2.8% estimated by Wall Street. So-called core CPI, which takes away food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year over year, slightly more than the expected 3%. This data raised hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month on September 17. However, the PPI report reversed. Let's take a look.

The producer price index (PPI) 
The PPI which measures final demand goods and services inflation, or the costs for producers to make goods and services spiked to 3.3% in July. Wall Street was expecting only 2.5%. This was the biggest monthly gain since June 2022. It indicates that the inflation may go up as some of the producers pass cost of the prices to the consumers.

The Retail Sales in U.S. was up 0.5% in July vs. 0.6% expected. Retail sales are adjusted for seasonal swings, but not inflation. Consumers are spending but very cautiously.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 in August from 61.7 last month due to worries over inflation.

Trump and Putin Meeting: Donald Trump and Putin had a close door meeting at Alaska last Friday. They did not reach to any ceasefire but both said that the discussion was very constructive. Donald Trump to meet Zelensky tomorrow in Washington. If it goes well, Trump sas to meet with Putin and Zelensky by this Friday. So far, things are looking positive. The investors will be keeping a close eye though the market may not be too concerned too much. However, many times Geopolitical situation also impacts the market.

Federal Reserve: The Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook and the Fed's review of its policy framework next Friday at the Fed's annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The investors will be keeping a close eye about what he says.


Earnings Last Week
CoreWeave (CRWV)
Revenue: $1.212 billion vs. 1.08 billion.
EPS: -$0.60 (loss) vs. 0.49
Guidance: For Q3 2025 company projects $1.26–$1.3 billion.
For Full-Year 2025 Revenue: $5.15 - $5.35 billion

My View: The stock was hammered and lost about 30% after its earnings. The company expects Q3 revenue between $1.26 - $1.30 billion, slightly above expectations. It also raised its yearly revenue forecast from $5.15 - $5.35 billion, up from its previous forecast of $4.9 - $5.1 billion. CoreWeave reported a contracted backlog of $30.1 billion, a $4 billion jump from the previous quarter and twice the amount recorded at the start of the year. The lockup period ended on 8/14, so we may see some sell-offs and hence short term volatility. However, I have added this stock after it got hammered as I see long term prospects. This month I added this Stockton my blog portfolio ad was up more than 20% before it got slammed. Please read the details there. A note of caution: Investors who can't take volatility should be very careful.

Earnings this week
Palo Alto Network (PANW): Reports tomorrow - Monday, 8/18 after the close of Market. The stock has been slammed after its acquisitions of CyberArk for $25 billion. I think PANW has done the right move. I am optimistic about its earnings. We will watch how it goes.

Also, some of the Mega retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, Target, TJX, Ross stores etc. will release earnings this week.

The biggest earnings of the season will come next week as Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, 8/27.

Economic Report this week
WED, 8/20: Minutes of Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting
THU, 8/21: Existing home sales

What to expect in the Market?
We should keep an eye on the market. Usually, August is volatile and September is approaching which is the worst month for the Stock market. Historically, August sees lighter volumes due to summer slowdowns as lots of Wall Street folks go on vacation and no major catalysts. So, the market remains volatile. Hence, I will take a cautionary approach. I will discuss more on this during my forthcoming investment meet.

Stocks to watch
PANW, CRWV, NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, NBIS, HOOD, MSFT, AMD, DASH, TQQQ, SOXL, HIMS

Next Investment Meet
Planned for SATURDAY, AUGUST 30. Please do not miss it!! Something that I share on the Webinar can't be published.

Comments

  1. PadmakarAugust 17, 2025 at 8:11 PM

    Hi Shesa sir, Interesting read and had very similar views and perspectives. Would like to join on the next Invest. meeting scheduled on Aug30, please add me in. Thank you sir.

    ReplyDelete

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