Shesa's Weekend Report - 8|10|25

Welcome to my weekend report! 

We saw a volatile week but overall market did well. For the week, the S&P 500  went up 2.5%,  Nasdaq climbed 3.9% and Dow gained 1.6%. Nasdaq closed with new all-time highs. All the economic report came below expectations. However, the market Keeps going up with the hope of interest rate cuts as the future market is expecting a 96% probability of rate cut in September. This week we have some critical economic report CPI, PPI and retail sales. These data may further confirm about the interest rate cut and future direction of the stock market. It looks like we have to economies at this time, one being "AI economy" which is doing pretty well and the other one is rest of the economy which is having a lack luster performance. Hence, it all depends on where we are putting our money to work. Meanwhile, Trump fired the labor secretary last week for misleading job repots and last Friday he fired the commissioner of the Internal Revenue Services.


U.S vs. India Relationship - My view
Per Trump, the 50% tariff on Indian goods to the US, comprising a 25% base tariff and an additional 25% tariff, takes effect on August 27, 2025, unless India negotiates a trade deal or halts Russian oil purchases within 21 days from August 6, 2025. On Friday, Donald Trump said that he is not gong to negotiate until Tariff dispute is resolved, meaning if Indian oil Import from Russia. So, let me share my views. 

First of all, let me clarify that this is NOT a political view rather my personal opinion on how it could impact the Indian economy. The relationship between U.S and India has deteriorated in last few days/weeks. Both Trump and Modi seem to be adamant on their stand. Who wins and who loses is difficult to predict but India has higher probability of being hit harder economically. Why? Because India export more than double of what U.S exports to India. In 2024, U.S. exports to India was $41.75 billion and Indian export to U.S was $91.23 billion. Furthermore, India is a growing economy and now World’s 4th largest economy. If the tariffs prevailed then India may have more to lose. Because it may feel the impact to its labor market for the industries exporting to U.S viz. textiles, gems, jewelry, auto parts, seafood etc. It may also further weaken rupee, and reduced foreign investments (FIs). It’s expected to bring down India’s GDP by -0.2% to -0.5%. The souring relationship between these two countries is not a good sign. Please note that pharma, semiconductor or service industry like I.T. are not impacted by tariffs. Tariffs are put only for the goods/products exported to U.S and not for services. But I may not be surprised, if Trump put restraint on H1, B1, L1 Visas and restrict out-sourcing to India. All these may impact a growing economy like India. Modi is saying, it will stick to its stand and India is ready for that. The Indian stock market has not been impacted too much. But the pain may be felt after a few quarters when the tariffs impact will be felt. For U.S, it may lose a huge growing market and a reliable partner like India. Hence, let’s hope that a negotiation takes place and they do an amicable settlement. But as of now, it does not look like things are going in the right direction. Both government are adamant on their stand. So, we will see how it goes in next few weeks and months. For now let's keep our finger crossed..

Earnings Last Week
Advanced Micro Device (AMD)
  • EPS: $0.48 vs. 0.49
  • Revenue: $7.6 billion vs. $7.4 billion.
  • Q3 Guidance: Between $8.4 billion and $9 billion vs. $8.3 billion.
My view: The company had a beat on top line but a penny miss on the bottom line. But the company gave a better guidance for the current quarter. I felt it as a buying opportunity and took some positions when stock was hammered. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
The company had a disappointing earnings. Missed top line, bottom line and guidance. 
  • Earnings per share: $0.41 per share, vs. $0.44 estimated, $0.63 last year
  • Revenue: $5.76 billion vs. $5.91 billion estimated, $5.3 billion last year.
  • Guidance: earnings of 0.46 on sales of $6.5B. vs. 0.59 on sales of $6.63 billion.
My View: I got out of the stock. If I see opportunity in future then I may get in.

IonQ Inc (IONQ)
EPS: -$0.70 vs. -$0.13. Net income -$177.53M vs. -$55.4M. 
Revenue $20.69M vs. $17.2M. 

My View: If one has to invest in the future of Quantum computing then this should be the first choice. 

DoorDash (DASH):  
  • EPS $0.65 vs. $0.43. Revenue $3.28B vs. $3.16B. Total orders 761M, up 20% Y/Y. 
  • Q3 guidance: GOV $24.2B–$24.7B vs. $23.7B.
My View: The company has been doing well for last several quarters. I added little bit after the earnings dip. This stock has further growth opportunity. 

Tempos AI (TEM)
Revenue: $314.6 million vs. $297.8 million, up 89.4% YoY.
EPS: -0.22 vs. -0.25.
Guidance: $1.26 billion vs. $1.24B
My View: It did beat on top and bottom line and the company saw 90% revenue growth! This company specialize in AI-driven precision medicine. In my view, it's worth accumulating for future. 

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)
Revenue: $3.1M, up 42% YoY, beat estimate of $2.63M.
EPS: -$0.08, missed estimate of -$0.05.
Net Loss: $167.3M, widened due to operational costs.
My View: I will keep an eye on future deals. It's good but very speculative.

Economic Report last week
ISM Services PMI (Aug 2025): 50.1 vs. of 51.5 expected, down from 50.8 in June.
Initial Jobless Claims: 250,000, up from 227,000 prior week vs. 230,000. Continuing Claims: 1.88M, up from 1.85M.

WhatsApp Poll Results and my view
Do you think Wall Street Analyst do a good job?

Based on the poll result 50% of the respondents feel that "Analyst mostly see their own vested interest, hence can’t be trusted”. Well, if you attended my investment meets, I keep talking about it. I do not think all the Wall Street analysts are dishonest or bad guys. But their main objective is to see their own personal interest or their organizational interests. Hardly, I have seen an analyst who is truly honest with the intent of helping general public. There is no harm in hearing the analysts but my vote goes to “they mostly see their own vested interest, hence can’t be trusted”. I never buy or sell any stock because an analyst said so. Having said that, listening to them but doing our due diligence may be useful. But as far as trust is concerned, I do not trust them.


Economic Reports this week
  • TUESDAY, AUG. 12: Consumer Price Index (CPI) / Inflation
  • THURSDAY, AUG. 14: Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • FRIDAY, AUG. 15: Retail Sales
Stocks to watch this week
Nvidia (NVDA): After the close of market on Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department has started issuing licenses to Nvidia to export its H20 chips to China, reversing an April ban. This is a great news for Nvidia. However, Nvidia NVDA and AMD have reportedly agreed to share 15% of the revenues from H20 chip sales in China. But based on the latest news China says there is security risks. In my view, that's a negotiation tactics. 


Last week, I included CoreView (CRWV) in my blog portfolio and provided the details. I am very happy on the timing. It's nice to see that the stock is up 24% in one week. Please note that it will release its Q2 earnings on 8/12. I am upbeat on the revenue beat but we will see how it goes..

CRWV, NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, HOOD, AMD, DASH, NBIS, TQQQ, MSFT, HIMS, RGTI, QUBT, IONQ, CRCL.

Earnings this week on my Radar
CRWV, RGTI, QUBT, CRCL

That's all for this week. Have a good evening!

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