Shesa's weekend Stock Market updates - 8|24|25

Welcome to my Weekend updates

The week started with a lackluster performance by technology stocks. But last Friday, market had a strong rally, driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaling potential September rate cuts. The S&P 500 rose 1.52% to 6,466.91, the Dow surged 846.24 points to a record 45,631.74, and the Nasdaq gained 1.88% to 21,496.53. The volatility started from tech sell-offs and inflation concerns from the Philadelphia Fed Index and S&P Global PMI. Retail earnings showed some consumer strength despite a cooling labor market. The U.S. government’s 10% stake in Intel lifted some of the chip stocks.

Why did stock reignited rally last Friday? 
The FED Chair Jerome Powell stunned Wall Street as most of the Wall Street folks were expecting hawkish view in his Jackson Hole speech last Friday. He signaled that the Federal Reserve is ready to cut interest rates in September, stating, “The time has come for policy to adjust.” He expressed confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2% and noted the labor market’s cooling, suggesting rate cuts to support economic growth. This dovish outlook, indicating lower borrowing costs, sparked optimism, driving the market rally. This surprised may Wall Street folks and I was surprised too because most folks thought for quite a hawkish view from the FED chair.

Earnings Last week
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
• Revenue: $2.54B vs. $2.50B estimated (beat by 1.6%)
• EPS: $0.95 vs. $0.89 estimated (beat by 6.7%)
Guidance (Q1 2026):
• Revenue: $2.45B–$2.47B vs. $2.43B estimated
• EPS: $0.88–$0.90 vs. $0.85 estimated.

My View: The company has a good quarter and good forecast than the street expected. Any pullback on this stock could be a good long term buying opportunity. 
  • Walmart: Reported $0.68 EPS, missing the $0.74 estimate, with $169.34B revenue below the $174.02B forecast. Sales grew, but tariffs impacted margins.
  • Lowe’s: Beat earnings with $4.24 EPS, met revenue at $24B, up from $23.6B last year. Positive comp sales driven by pros and DIY.
  • Home Depot: Missed earnings slightly at $4.68 EPS vs. $4.72 expected, with $45.28B revenue vs. $45.41B forecast. Affirmed yearly guidance.
  • Target: Missed earnings expectations, with a 0.9% sales drop and a CEO transition announced. Same-store sales fell 1.9%, reflecting weak consumer demand.
My view: I am not a big fan of retail stocks. However, one stock I would stay away is Target. This company has failed time and again in last few years. 

Economic report this week
TUE, AUG. 26: Consumer Confidence.
THU, Aug 28:   Q2 GDP
FRI, Aug 29:     Fed’s preferred PCE report => This report is a market moving event

Earnings this week
Wednesday, August 27: Nvidia (NVDA), Snowflake (SNOW), Crowdstrike (CRWD)

What to expect in the stock market this week?
Next week the biggest earnings of the season - Nvidia (NVDA) reports earning on Wednesday, 8/27 after the closed of market. If NVDA earnings are good and better guidance then it may set the tone for the technology stocks, particularly AI related stocks. The Analysts expect Q2 2026 EPS of $1.00 (47% YoY growth) and revenue of $45.91B (52.8% YoY growth). Strong AI chip demand should continue. I am optimistic about NVDA results. Let's hope that the company comes with another solid quarter. Furthermore, there will be couple of very important economic reports - Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report which give further clarity about inflation and FeD's move. Also, Q2 GDP growth and Consumer confidence. Hence, it's expected to be an eventful week. If these data go positive we may see a good week otherwise we may see volatility. We will see how it goes. I will still be cautiously optimistic before jumping in and buy with both hands..

Stocks to watch this week
NVDA, AVGO, TSLA, HOOD, META, NBIS, CRWV, ALAB, DASH, OPEN, RKT, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, OPEN, TQQQ, SOXL.

Next Investment Meet: SATURDAY, 8/30. We have 56 attendees. More on this later..Stay tuned!

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