WEEKEND UPDATE - 4|27|25

So finally, we saw a good week for the stock market since January 2025. This week will be full of big tech earnings. But before I discuss further, let’s see how did the market do last week.

The U.S. stock market posted strong gains, with the S&P 500 up 4.6%, closing around 5,485, and the Nasdaq Composite up 6.7%, closing near 17,166. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5%, ending around 40,093. This marked the second positive week in three, driven by tech sector rallies and easing trade concern.

Economic: Economic indicators showed resilience despite tariff uncertainties. New orders for durable goods beat expectations, and weekly jobless claims remained stable at 222,000, signaling a steady labor market. However, consumer sentiment dropped to a 2022 low (50.8 on the University of Michigan index) due to fears of tariff-driven inflation, with one-year inflation expectations spiking to 6.7%. The IMF cut its 2025 U.S. growth forecast to 1.8%, citing tariff impacts. 

This week we will see Consumer Confidence on Monday, PCE report and Q1 GDP  on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing on Thursday and important Payroll report on Friday.

Last Week Google (GOOG) reported the Q1 results yesterday beating both top and bottom line.  

Revenue: $90.23 billion vs. $89.12 billion expected, up 12% YOY. 

EPS: $2.81 vs. $2.01.

GC Revenue: $12.26B vs. $12.27B.


The company also announced a $70 billion stock buyback and a 5% dividend increase to $0.21 per share. Overall the results were good but we do not know the impact of AI on Google search and hence Investors are cautions.


Trade Talks and Tariffs: Hopes of de-escalating U.S.-China trade tensions fueled market gains. Reports suggested the U.S. might cut tariffs to 50–65%, and China granted exemptions on some U.S. imports, lifting Asian markets. However, conflicting statements persisted—China denied high-level talks, while Trump claimed progress. The 90-day tariff pause (except on China’s 145% tariffs) provided relief, but volatility remained high due to uncertainty. SO far in the earnings calls Tariffs were cited in over 90% of S&P 500 earnings calls, with 44% mentioning recession risks.

Market Sentiment: Investors welcomed signs of trade stabilization and Trump’s assurance that he wouldn’t fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, easing fears about Fed independence. The VIX volatility index fell to 30 from a high of 60 earlier in April, reflecting cautious optimism. Tech and consumer discretionary sectors led gains, while energy and consumer staples lagged

Positive Sign for the Market: The market look strong from both fundamental and technical point of view. The market rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday, more than 1.5% on Wednesday, and more than 1.5% on Thursday. That is a pretty rare action to get the stock market up more than 1.5% in three consecutive days. But every time it has happened since 1950, let's see what happened next. The stocks rallied over the next 12 months every time. Oftentimes, those forward 12 month returns were in excess of 20%, including the three most recent times the signal was triggered (late 2020, early 2016, and late 2011). Hence, I believe it may be worthwhile to put some money into the market slowly. But always having some cash is very important as we do not know when and which direction the market may take. 

Major EARNINGS THIS WEEK
Monday, April 28:
  • NXP Semiconductors (NXPI).
Wednesday, April 30
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Analysts expect EPS of $3.09 on revenue of $64.5 billion.
  • Meta Platforms (META): Analysts forecasts around $5.22 on $38.3 billion in revenue.
  • Enovix (ENVX)
  • Robinhood (HOOD): Expected to have good earnings.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): A semiconductor and wireless tech company, expected to discuss 5G and automotive chip demand.
Thursday, May 1
Amazon (AMZN): Analysts are forecasting Q1 EPS of $1.36 on revenue of $155.1 billion, with focus on AWS growth and potential tariff impacts.

Apple (AAPL): Expected to report after Thursday’s close, with aAnalysts anticipating tariff-related sales impacts and AI feature updates. EPS is projected at $1.52 on $90.6 billion in revenue.

Airbnb (ABNB): A travel platform, with attention on booking trends and pricing strategies.

EQUITY TO WATCH THIS WEEK
META, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, HOOD, SOXL, TQQQ, AVGO, NFLX, PANW.

Have a good rest of the weekend!

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