Weekend Update - 4|19|25

The U.S. stock market remains chaotic and blood bath does not seem to stop. During my last investment meet last Sunday, 4/13. We also discussed about what is causing these turmoil in the market, my perspective, some strategies, optimism and of course some of the stocks that I like.

During the week, The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% this week, Dow was down 2.7% and  Nasdaq lost 2.6%. So far this year, S&P 500 is down 11.34%, and Nasdaq is down 18.57% - almost in the bear market territory. The market sentiment is remains terrible. So, it makes sense to be vigilant and judicious in deciding which equity to buy, sell, accumulate. Well, let's take quick look to last week market. Investors rotated to defensive sectors (e.g., utilities) and safe-havens like gold has gone to $3341 per ounce. 

On Thursday, 4/17, Trump pinged saying that Fed chairman J Powell is always too LATE and WRONG! The EU has already cut interest rates for 7th time. He should cut the interest rate. Unfortunately, that's a function of how the Fed works with its backward-looking data. And of course, FED has done many mistakes in the past.

ECONOMIC
• Retail Sales (March): Up 1.4%, vs. 1.2% expected, driven by pre-tariff auto sales (+5.3%). Signals consumer resilience but raises inflation concerns. However, in my view, the consumers are front loading some items with the fear of rising prices due to tariffs and further inflation. So, we will see how the retail sales will go next month!!

Housing Starts (March): Fell to 1.324M, below 1.42M forecast, reflecting continued pressure on home market due to high interest rate.

EARNINGS
Tesla (TSLA) plans to report on Tuesday, 4/22 after the close of market. Frankly, I am not too optimistic about its earnings but what I am looking is what Elon Musk says about its full self driving car, the humanoid robots, the cheaper version of Tesla car, and of course robo taxi (Cybercab). I will provide more update next week.

Netflix (NFLX)

  • Earnings per share: $6.61 vs $5.71 expected.
  • Revenue: $10.54 billion vs $10.52 billion expected.
  • Guidance: $11.04B vs. 10.98B.
My view: Netflix has been going strong despite very challenging and uncertain environment. I do feel that it should maintain the momentum and may bounce fast when the market turnaround.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) missed earnings and cut guidance causing the stock to plunge -22.4%. The company cut 2025 EPS guidance to $26–$26.50 from $29.50–$30. This resulted in a second worst single day down in the history of this healthcare giant.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): The company reported a strong Q1 results beating both top and bottom line despite chip export restrictions. More importantly, the company provided strong guidance for Q2 2025, signaling confidence in continued AI demand.

Banks: JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock beat Q1 estimates, but bank CEOs warned of tariff that may slow the economy. Aggregate S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth expected at 7.2%, down from 12.2% previously forecasted.

Economic Report this week
We will see a few reports - new home sales report on April 23, existing home sales on April 24 and themes important final Consumer Sentiment report on Friday, April 25.

Stocks to watch this week: The most important would be Netflix (NFLX). It came with solid earnings, so the stock may see some upward momentum unless market tanks. 
TSLA: Earnings on Tuesday.
Other Equity to watch: META, NVDA, QQQ, SOXL

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