Shesa's APRIL 2025 Investment Blog

By Shesa Nayak

U.S. Stock Market Update 

The U.S. stock market has been decimated with the scare of Trump tariff. Since February 19, the market has been on a free fall except a couple days baring the week of March 20. Today we saw some big relief rally in the morning but it evaporated within a couple of hours. The investors agony continues.. This is one of the irrational news driven stock market that probably we are witnessing. Yesterday, we saw DOW fluctuated almost 2600 points within a span of about 40 minutes!! Well, going forward there are lots of economic news and Trump tariff to be published where he says 103% tariff for China. So, we are in an unprecedented time. 

Market Recap: On Monday, 4/7, all the major stock indexes plunged and hit 52-week low intraday before bouncing back. This year alone Dow is down -16.2% (-18.8% from all-time high), S&P is down -21.65% and Nasdaq is obliterated with -33.3% in 2025. Both Nasdaq and S&P 500 were in the bear market territory before bouncing back from intra-day low. To give the readers some perspective, the stock market has wiped out about $10-11 trillion after Donald Trump took over office on January 20 as of Monday morning, 4/7/25. Almost the size of India, Japan and Germany economy combined! This is simply unprecedented!! We all are the on the same boat to take the hit! Last week VIX (volatility index or fear gauge) spiked to 45.31, its highest since April 2020. Today VIX further went up to 48.14 before closing at 39.75. Last week VIX had one of the highest weekly closes in history of the stock market. And Friday alone it was up 50%. Each day, it takes a a step closer to the path of recession, hence every move is important under such circumstances. 

The pain is not limited to index being down significantly. Some of the solid technology stocks  and many blu chip stocks have been obliterated and down -20% to -50%. Most investors can see the pain as the portfolio shows dark red and money keeps evaporating. The people in retirement or closer to retirements expected to be in more trauma because of the market free fall.

The magnitude of stock market fall seems to be comparable to COVID pandemic. During  that time the market fell fast causing bear market at a record 17 days. However, the market also bounced back hard and fast as Federal Reserve came to the rescue by cutting the interest rate substantially. And the market took a V shape recovery. But in the current environment, nothing seems to be positive. Market is grappling with day-to-day tariffs with varying statements from the Trump administration. All inflation numbers are going up, consumer confidence and sentiment is shattered, ISM manufacturing and ISM services are flashing economy contraction. The unemployment rate has gone up to 4.2%. So, all in all almost nothing seems positive. The mortgage rates have come down a little but that doesn't make too much difference in such a chaotic environment. In addition, the administration and Federal Reserve do not seem to align. Hence, chances of FED cutting interest rates are slim unless the job numbers get too bad or inflation comes though there is no such indication at this time. The tariff but more 

Economic Context and FED: Despite a stronger-than-expected March jobs report 228,000 vs. 140,000 forecast, recession fears overshadowed the data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the tariffs “larger than expected,” hinting at higher inflation and slower growth ahead. Though, the market is now pricing in more rate cuts, 110 basis points by year-end, I doubt about so many rate cuts unless economy deteriorated severely. I hope and wish that the Wall Street experts are right and I am wrong! The stock market is terrified with so many uncertainties - tariff fear, lackluster economy, inflation is rising, FED is on the sideline, and so also the recession odds are rising.

So, how long will this doom and gloom continue? As there is a saying, “there will be light at the end of the tunnel”. But the question is how long is the tunnel? Well, I will share some of my thoughts but before that let’s take a look at the Indexes.

Indexes	Close TUE 12/30/24	Close TUE 4/8/25	Change in 2025	% Change in 2025	All Time High	From All Time High	% from All Time High
DOW	42,544.22	37,645.59	-4,898.63	-13.01%	45,073.63	-7,428.04	-16.48%
S&P 500	5,881.63	4,982.77	-898.86	-18.04%	6,099.97	-1,117.20	-18.31%
NASDAQ	19310.79	15,267.91	-4,042.88	-26.48%	20,204.58	-4,936.67	-24.43%
Russel 2000	2,230.16	1,760.71	-469.45	-26.66%	2,466.49	-705.78	-28.61%
SOX (Semi)	4,979.93	3,562.94	-1,416.99	-39.77%	5,931.83	-2,368.89	-39.94%

Economy News

• Interest Rate: 4.5% 
• GDP Annual GDP: 2.5%. Dec: 2.4%
• Inflation: 2.8%, previous: 2.9%; PPI: 3.6% vs. 3.3%
• NonFarm Payroll: 228K (March) vs. 117K. Unemployment: 4.2% 
• Retail Sales: down -0.2% vs. -1.2% expected
• PCE: 2.8% (Feb) vs. 2.6% (Jan)
• Consumer Confidence Index: 57 (March) vs. 64.7% (Feb)
• ISM Manufacturing: 50.2 (Mar), vs. 52.7% (Feb)
• ISM Services: 50.8 (Mar), vs. 53.5% (Feb)
• Key Report next week: CPI: 2/12, PPI (2/13), Retail Sales (2/14).
• US Mortgage Rate: The 30-year fixed around 7.5%

Q1 earnings 

The Q1 earnings will start this week with some big banks JPM, WFC reporting on Friday, 4/11. The banks and financials institutions will continue and then first tech earnings will kick-off with Netflix (NFLX) on April 17. Subsequently more tech earnings to continue after 3rd and 4th week of April. My feeling is, these tech companies may come with reasonable earnings for Q1 but I doubt any CEO/CFO will provide good guidance visualizing the current tariff and uncertain environment. The reason is quite obvious “total uncertainty”. Most of the companies may use a very, very cautious approach. The worst thing is that the analysts community have not reduced much of the earnings expectations so far. Unless they do, many companies may miss revenue and earnings expectations. So, I personally do not expect a great earnings season.

The Current Market environment

Frankly, this is a terrible environment to be an investor. One of the most news driven chaotic environment that we have seen in the stock market history. Over the century stock market saw significant downturn or crashes. I have seen multiple decades of stock market and so many downturn from .com bust, 911, financial crisis, COVID crisis etc. One thing I have realized is that, Wall street always finds something new to surprise retail investors to trap them. Unfortunately, the retail investors do not have billions, or access to high-frequency algo-based trading capabilities or mediator or any cartel. Furthermore, we do not have tons of money on the sidelines to take advantage of the situation. Here are some possible scenario on tariff.

• The worst-case scenario: There could be retaliation by the other countries and market may further drop. However, I do not think this should be the case though nobody can predict. Probably most of the country-specific tariffs may get walked back through deals because U.S is still the largest economy in the world and most of the countries would not like to lose their business. If they do, they may suffer even more. Having said that, if the countries will not come forward to negotiate then this may result in a global recession. I do see China as the riskiest!
• It’s possible that the 10% universal tariff may still exist but I guess that’s very manageable as many companies would try to digest rather than passing to the customers. Or a small increase in prices may be acceptable to the customers. 
• As the negotiations continues and market sees some positive results, the market sentiment would start recovering and so also the stock market. But it may take weeks or possibly months. 
• Most of the bad news seems to be front-loaded by Trump administration. 
• As I wrote to my WhatsApp group a few days ago, the Q1 earnings are coming. In addition, there are few very critical Economic report this week. We will see how it goes but tariff + economic news makes it even more important.
• Wednesday, 4/9: FOMC minutes
• Thursday, 4/10: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Friday, 4/11: Producer Price Index (PPI)

So, how long this Doom and Gloom will continue?

As I wrote in my January blog and had told many times in the investment meet and radio show, this year is going to be highly volatile and news driven. But the magnitude of volatility and the time was even beyond my imagination. And nobody knows what’s coming next how much the market could fall. This is one of the most chaotic environment that I have experienced in multiple decades. I will be fool to say “I know it!!”. It would best be my guess work. Not only mine, probably most Wall Street folk’s imagination. So, is there anything there to feel better? I think so..

• Tax Cuts and Deregulations are on the pipeline. Republicans are already working on this and possibly it may come sooner than we expect. They may push harder visualizing the chaotic environment and bloody market. But deregulation may happen gradually. Please refer to my January and February blog.
• Historical significance of VIX indicates huge long term gain. So, what does this VIX signify? Here is what the history says “The VIX ended last week at 45.3, among the highest weekly closes in history”. Whenever such incidents happened in the past, the stocks rallied 100% of the time over the next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years with returns for S&P 500 far above historical averages. The lowest one year returns of 18% and highest one year return of 73%. After 5 years, the lowest return was 103% and highest return was 205%. 

• Let’s see another metrics. The S&P 500 fell -10.5% over the last tow consecutive trading days (THU, 4/3 and FRI, 4/4), which was the 5th biggest 2-day decline since 1950. So, what?? Historically, stocks were substantially higher over the next 1, 3, 5 years every time. The lowest one year return of 9% in 2008-09 and highest one year return of 62% in 2021-21 (Covid year). The lowest 5 years return of 88% and highest 5 years return of 164%.

I will discuss more on these during my next investment meet. So, what do we do now?

My Strategy

Please remember most strategy fails in such environment. So, too much strategy may be overthinking at this time. Well, as most of my reader may be aware that I am a bull and a growth investor. The growth stocks have been decimated. So, we all feel the pain because it’s our hard earned money. There may be gain and correspondingly there may be pain. But that’s part of the investment life. In spite of all the contemporary phenomena, I still see long term prospects. So, I am really disappointed but not hopeless. Here are some facts that may see light at the end of the tunnel. So, let’s start..

• I would like to very carefully watch the market and the trend on some of the key stocks and determine quickly what to do. What to buy, when to buy, what to trim, which one to get out.
• Visualizing the chaotic environment I would like to have some cash because the market is falling like stone and short sellers seem to be in complete control.
• We can’t do much on what’s already lost. But patience and thoughtful execution may should bring back some return over the long-term. So, we should plan something for the future to take the opportunity and recoup some of those losses. If we sold at the wrong time and remain on the sidelines then that may be the worst mistake in my view. Because market will bounce back sooner or later and historically stock market has alway returned 9-10% in the long term. So, if we remain with cash then whatever is lost remain lost. 
• Though safe havens (bonds, gold) may be good to weather volatility but I will rather hold cash to take opportunity for the right time. Of course, some gold is good. I will consider small, opportunistic buys in oversold tech sector, when I feel right time to jump in.
• It would be extremely dangerous to jump with lots of buying until the storm is over and avoiding big moves until there is more clarity on tariff policies.
• Short Term: Some great tech stocks are oversold.  I have listed some stocks later that I like. One classical example is NVDA - strong fundaments and still AI high growth prospect looks  very promising. This type of solid oversold stocks potentially offering quick bounce opportunity when the market rout is over and rebound faster and stronger once market turns around. 
• The markets may see an early bounce as bargain hunters step in, but uncertainty over global trade retaliation and economic fallout could cap gains or trigger more declines. A stronger-than-expected jobs report might ease recession fears, but tariff escalations, economic data and FED policy remain uncertain.
• A few things must be kept in mind: Just by seeing that some stocks have come down significantly does not mean that they will have the biggest bounce. We have to identify which are the great stocks that we love (not just like) that may have strong fundamentals, future growth prospects and momentum. These are the type of stocks money should be invested to leverage the bounce. Approach: Short term trade as well as long term accumulations.
• A tactical buy for a bounce, but caution for holding long. Pick based on your risk tolerance, timeline and comfort level

 

• Judicious Decision: In such a chaotic environment if we jump in too early and market turns further down then we may lose too much in addition to what we might have already lost. On the other hand, if we wait too long and jump too late then we may lose the key gains and by the time we realize it may be too late. So, the genius wall street sharks will pack our bags. I keep saying this because lots of institutions have lots of visibility on what we hold in our accounts and they keep waiting like Falcon bird to catch. So, better to have a list - decide fast and act fast.
• We can hold on to some of my core positions. But if we are worried and that’s keeping us up at night, “it’s better to trim/sell” those positions which we are not comfortable. That way, we don't panic if the market drops precipitously. If someone is trading then it’s worth considering stop losses. But I do not do that, I rather follow trimming or selling. 
• As the facts and situation change, it’s extremely critical to adjust our portfolio accordingly and not sticking with our thoughts or ego.
• More importantly, not to get too much panicked, act with patience, act with our own due diligence on what we love/like, not based on what others are telling or speculating. Let’s not forget that we have to take care of our own portfolio not others!
• Long-Term: Keeping an eye on those sectors who may not be hit hard from tariff viz. biotech, healthcare, utilities. It may be worth considering to diversify from tariff-exposed stocks (e.g., some tech, retail); possibly focus on domestic-focused firms who does not export much. The companies highly impacted by tariff will have tough time. 
• It would be important to think about diversification into other asset classes.
• Very critical: It’s extremely important to hedge the portfolio because of the volatility. Hedging is insurance, so if the market goes up, we may lose some money, but I am willing to take that risk to protect at least some part of my portfolio. 

Some Growth that I will look opportunity to add

If you missed my January blog then I am re-publishing my list of stocks that I like for 2025. But I will also watch the earnings which would come in next 2-3 weeks. If the earnings do not go well then I may remove it. Many of these may look aggressive so caution is warranted. This is not a recommendation or suggestion to buy/sell. This is simply personal choices. I will discuss more during my investment meet on Sunday, 4/13.

• Nvidia (NVDA)
• Broadcom (AVGO)
• Facebook (META)
• Netflix (NFLX)
• Tesla (TSLA)
• IONQ
• QQQ -or- TQQQ
• SOXL 
• Rocket Mortgage (RKT)
• Financials (FAS)
• Palo Alto Network (PANW)
• Robinhood (HOOD)
• Recursion Pharmaceutical (RXRX) => Biotech is risky but longterm promising. 
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Celsious Holding (CELH)

Some of the stocks who do not export may be good. For example, some of the healthcare companies like United HealthCare, some insurance providers, CVS, Eli Lilly etc.

These may need further revisions as Analyst reset their targets. 

S&P 500 Earnings projections for 2024-2025

Q4 2024: 16.9%, revenue growth of 5.9% last week

Q1 2025 (projected): 12.7%, revenue growth of 5.3%

Q2 2025 (projected): 11.9%, revenue growth of 5.5%

FY 2024 (projected): earnings 9.4%, Revenue growth: 5.1%

FY 2025 (projected): earnings 14.8%, Revenue growth: 5.7%

Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 19.7.

Stock Market TOP sectors for 2025

Sector	YTD Performance in %age
Consumer Staples	-0.58
Healthcare	-2.26
Utilities	-3.07
Real Estate	-6.70
Energy	-7.98
Matrials	-8.66
Information Technology	-22.51

Please note that every sector is Red Year to Date. You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:

Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd

Now let me discuss this month’s hedging pick for my Blog Portfolio.

Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY)

VIX (Volatility of Fear Index): I added this position to volatility/fear index on Sunday night. Again clarifying that this is extremely risky and may lose significant values when there is no fear or uncertainty in the market. But when there is fear in the market it may go like fire. So, please understand the HIGH RISK before putting money in this ultra VIX. Again, this is NOT an investment, it’s a short term hedge/protection or I can say insurance which may go to ZERO.

Last week VIX spiked to 45.31, its highest since April 2020. The $VIX ended the week at 45.3 which is one among the highest weekly closes in history of the stock market. Only on Friday, 4/4, the VIX rocketed 50% with the news that China will be imposing 34% tax on U.S goods current uncertainty surrounding the market. This was one of the market’s worst weeks since the COVID-19 crisis. Uncertainty lingers as global responses and tariff negotiations unfold. If you attended my investment meets then I use to keep talking about UVXY. So, I had some position but I have added some more of UVXY to hedge my portfolio. Today, Tuesday, 4/8/25, the VIX closed at 47.69 with an intra day low of $34 and high of $53. I do understand that it has gone up significantly. But this is only for some protection, and NOT an investment. It’s just a risk mitigation strategy. It should be bought and sold, completely for trading to mitigate such huge collapse in the market which instill fear among investors. More the fear, more it goes up like rocket and when there is no fear, it simply will CRASH. Hence, it should be traded based on the market situation. This is extremely volatile and may go up or dow 20-30 or 40% on a single day depending on investors’ fear. Basically, this is an insurance against the portfolio. But I would not put more than 2-3% of my portfolio depending on the situation.

Strategy and RISK: I will add during uncertainty and get out as soon as the fear recedes. However, in the current market situation, even if I lose some money, it may be sensible to keep some as an insurance policy. Because market behaviors are changing so fast and so hard that it’s worth hedging the portfolio thinking it as the cost of insurance. One can also hedge by selling short, or buying puts. I do not feel comfortable of selling short. My strategy is to use UVXY and/or buying put options. Those who are not comfortable should not venture into this space. As I said before, it’s important to understand the HIGH RISK before putting any money in this ultra VIX or UVXY. Again, this is NOT an investment, it’s a short term hedge/protection or I can say insurance which may possibly go down to almost ZERO. That’s the reason, one MUST be very thoughtful on how much money to put on such instruments. 

My final thoughts

In today’s chaotic and uncertain environment where there is blood bath it makes sense for me to add to this. Once things stabilizes, I may remove it or keep some position holding because you never know when we wake up one day market might have crashed!! 

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of APR 8, 2025)

Equity	Suggested Price	Current Price	Suggested Date	% Change	My View  (see disclaimer)
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
AAPL	12.9	172.42	1/25/13	1237%	HOLD
META	47	510.45	11/13/13	986%	Small accumulation on dip
MA	77.18	479.92	12/12/13	522%	HOLD
AMZN	15.58	170.66	4/12/14	995%	HOLD - trimmed
SHOP	13.48	77.09	11/25/18	472%	HOLD
SPG	54.59	140.37	5/25/20	157%	HOLD
NVDA	23.9	96.3	2/13/22	303%	Small accumulation on dip
TSLA	290.25	221.86	5/1/22	-24%	Small accumulation on dip
RDFN	8.87	8.85	4/6/23	-0%	Company is SOLD
SOXL	15.66	8.25	4/6/23	-47%	Small accumulation
GOOG	123.25	146.58	5/21/23	19%	Trimmed
PLTR	20.49	77.32	11/19/23	277%	Trimmed
MSFT	376.04	408.43	1/1/24	9%	SOLD
PANW	142.06	152.53	3/31/24	7%	Buy
SMCI	85.74	31.71	4/28/24	-63%	Trimmed
ENVX	10.48	5.46	4/28/24	-48%	HOLD - Trimmed
DELL	138.96	114.38	7/6/24	-18%	SOLD
Z	51.92	60.89	8/11/24	17%	HOLD - Trimmed
CRM	254.57	326.54	9/14/24	28%	SOLD
LRCX	76.16	60.25	11/11/24	-21%	HOLD - Trimmed
RXRX	6.76	3.97	1/2/25	-41%	Small accumulation on dip
IONQ	37.46	21.28	2/18/25	-43%	Small accumulation on dip
UVXY	39.79	47.69	4/6/25	20%	NEW ADDITION - Hedging
	ETF
IHF	27.82	52.11	8/16/15	87%	HOLD
MUTUAL FUND
PRMTX	59.45	135.21	12/20/14	127%	HOLD
FSRPX	9.05	17.04	1/15/16	88%	HOLD
FSMEX	43.66	54.82	9/24/17	26%	HOLD

A few Key Economic report this week (2/17 - 2/24)

Nothing very critical except Existing Home Sales

Equity Sold since my Last Blog

Microsoft (MSFT)

Salesforce (CRM)

Dell 

Here is my YouTube channel link:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCt7oLVUMG3NkJUzAVUzl4Tg

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.

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