Shesa's MAY 2020 Investment Blog
May 2020 - INVESTMENT BLOG
By Shesa Nayak
Wishing a Happy Memorial Day to all my readers!
U.S. Stock Market Update
Finally, the storms in stock market seems to have settled a bit. We still see some volatility but that's expected to continue for a foreseeable future. At least for now, we are no more on a roller coaster ride. First quarter earnings are almost over, so far 95% of the S&P 500 companies have already reported their earnings. The pandemic continues all over the world but some businesses across the globe have started reopening to avoid further economy disaster. After a couple of rounds of stimulus, there are further talks among political parties for next round of multi-trillion-dollar stimulus. Democratic party came with their proposal for $3 trillion package that aims to push funds to people, localities and institutions hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Republican wants their own version of the package. As we are aware, this is the year of U.S presidential election. So, each party wants to show their own credibility to garner voters. Not to mention, Donald trump’s position has deteriorated after the economy downturn and unprecedented 43 million people filing for unemployment benefits since the pandemic spread across the nation. The official unemployment rate now stands at a staggering 14.7%, which probably is the highest ever in USA. The total unemployment has surpassed 43.2 million people in U.S, which is 27% of the labor force. Some of these jobs may return but it may take months and years, and many jobs may never come back. The U.S stock market has bounced back hard and fast after it got decimated in March. I will discuss all these and provide my perspective, but before that let’s take a quick look to the stock market indexes:
| Indexes | 1/2/20 | Close FRI (3/13/20) | Change in 2020 | % Change in 2020 | All Time High | From All Time High | % from All Time High |
| DOW | 28,538.44 | 24,465.16 | -4,073.28 | -14.27 | 29,408.05 | -4,942.89 | -16.81% |
| S&P 500 | 3,230.78 | 2,955.45 | -275.33 | -8.52 | 3,347.96 | -392.51 | -11.72% |
| NASDAQ | 8,972.60 | 9,324.59 | 351.99 | 3.92 | 9,575.66 | -251.07 | -2.62% |
| BTK | 5,067.45 | 5,621.89 | 554.44 | 10.94 | 5681.89 | -60.00 | -1.06% |
| NBI | 3,786.54 | 4,190.01 | 403.47 | 10.66 | 4273.52 | -83.51 | -1.95% |
Next Investment Meet: will be held on Saturday, 5/30 virtually. Those who are interested to join, please contact me ASAP.
Major Economy News
Earnings Report: For Q1 2020 about 95% of the S&P 500 have reported their earnings, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 57% companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Earnings Growth: The earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -14.6% vs. projected -6.9%. It will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009 when it reported
-15.7% earnings decline.
Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.0. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.8) and much above the 10-year average (15.1). It means that the stock market has become more than 20% expensive.
The next quarter (Q2) is expected to be the worst because of closure of many businesses due to unprecedented Coronavirus impact. It’s highly likely that we are going to see global recession all over the world. Just to remind, where there are two consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth it’s termed as recession. During a recession, there is a period of economic decline, signaled by an increase in unemployment, a drop in the stock market, and a dip in the housing market.
- China said it won’t set GDP target for 2020 as Coronavirus impact of their economy.
- Trump said not to close the economy if there is second wave of Coronavirus
- Unemployment: Weekly jobless claim rose 2.438 million vs. 2.4 million expected. The national unemployment rate bumped to 14.7%. The total number have surpassed 43 million.
- Home Sales: In April Home Sales dropped 18%. Existing home sales dropped 17.8% which was 17.2% lower than same time last year. However, the prices were high due to lack of home inventory.
- Housing starts: Plunged to 891,000 vs. 927,000 expected in April.
- GDP Growth: -4.8% quarter over quarter and 0.3% year over year.
- U.S Interest Rate: 0.25%
- U.S Inflation rate: 0.30%
What may be in store for the stock market?
I have been bullish on this stock market recovery for last couple of months and it has turned better for our portfolio. But let’s not forget the fact that, the stock market has got a big jump in last few weeks. For example, DOW has recovered more than 30%, S&P 500 recovered more than 32% and Nasdaq has recovered more than 35% from its low on March 23. As we know, when stock market falls it falls like a stone but when it goes up it goes up it goes on a staircase. But this time, possibly it has taken an elevator to go up.
As of this writing, Nasdaq has already gone to positive territory for this year and just about 3% away from its all-time high. We can see that many of the high-quality tech growth stocks are right back to their pre-Covid-19 highs or have reached to their all-time highs like Amazon, Facebook, Shopify (SHOP) to name a few. Despite so much of trouble with the pandemic and so many businesses being closed, stock market is behaving as if nothing has really happened! But the question comes to mind, “is the pandemic really over and we are back to business as usual”? The answer is a big “NO”. So, why is the stock market and particularly the leading stocks have been going up and up? The man reason could be attributed to huge stimulus by federal government and Federal reserve cutting down interest rate to almost ZERO followed by Fed buying risky assets. The Fed has started purchasing “risk assets” or securities. The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility has been buying corporate bond ETFs in the open market. Also, Fed is buying commercial paper and corporate debt directly from businesses. The Fed can't legally do this by itself, but it’s making it happen through their creative financial engineering idea. The Treasury is officially making the purchases with the help of BlackRock via special purpose vehicles (SPV) that are financed by the Fed. Please note that while buying bonds it does not only bring liquidity to the market but some part of the money also goes to buying equity, that helps stock prices to increase.
The economy is really going through the crisis right now, however, stocks are broadly priced for a smooth economic re-opening in May assuming of a business as usual.
The re-opening of the economy in this month is going to be choppy. Because consumers will remain hesitant to travel, go to restaurants, movies, malls, shopping, vacationing etc. Secondly, when people go out of social distancing the cases COVID-19 cases could potentially rise which may further setback the re-opening process. So, obviously it won’t be a smooth process. However, as aforesaid, the stock market is behaving as if everything is smooth. So, to conclude, I expect more volatility and pullback in the stock market for next several weeks, though I may be wrong!
Consumer Spending is KEY
There is a strong huge unemployment at this time 43 million of unemployed Americans. So, obviously people will be very careful on spending money unless something is very, very essential. We know that 70% of the GDP is dependent on consumer spending. Hence, till we see s bounce in spending the economy will suffer. But as we go and situation changes, the businesses will start getting normal. As businesses re-open some of the unemployed people will re-join their work. So, they will start spending. In addition, folks who were employed but not spending because of uncertain environment will start opening their wallets. All of these should contribute to bump in spending. When that happens, corporate profit growth should be back, capital spending will resume, further employment will be generated. The business trend will start getting better and better. Moreover, election is coming in December, so politicians will do whatever it takes to come to power. So, we may see a gradual recovery in the second half of 2020 and going into 2021. With vaccines available and tons of stimulus powers strong consumer spending and enterprise spending resumes, corporate profit growth should be quite robust, and we may see a much better 2021. We may see a major bounce back in economy and correspondingly stock market. That may bring new high for the stock market indexes. So, any pullback in next few weeks/months should be viewed as a good opportunity to keep accumulating good stock slowly for a good long-term gain.
What is hedging is important in a volatile market?
Hedging refers to buying an investment designed to reduce or mitigate risk of losses from our investment. In a layman’s term, protecting our investment from losses in case the stock or stock market goes south. This is basically an insurance policy against any damage to our stock or portfolio. Let me give an example, we pay insurance for our car but if nothing happens then we don’t get anything back, rather it simply goes to insurer’s pocket. But unfortunately, if something happens then we get benefited and do not lose our shirts. Similarly, in investing, if something goes wrong in an investment then we can protect it by having an insurance and that’s nothing but hedging. You can hedge your stock or you can hedge your portfolio.
Hedging Stock: Investors will often buy an opposite investment to do this, such as buying a put option or “shorting stock” to hedge against losses in a stock position. So, when the stock prices come down it will be somewhat offset by a gain in the option. This is particularly very useful when there is uncertainty to a stock price or highly volatile stock. Note: I usually avoid shorting stock and prefer buying puts, if needed.
Hedging Portfolio: Different techniques can be used by investment managers, individual investors and corporations to reduce risk exposure in an investment portfolio to protect against falling stock market. We can hedge our portfolio with various short security or gold, bond etc. For hedging the market, I use UVXY, SQQQ, SDOW, SPXS etc. which are good protection against falling or volatile stock market situation. But one thing must be kept in mind, once market keep recovering and you see that market is stabilizing then sell these immediately otherwise you may lose lot of value. Because some of these instruments like UVXY keeps losing its value over a period of time. Hence, these should be viewed as a short-term protection rather than long term investment. Going forward, we may see some pullback and volatility returning to the stock market because second quarter (March – June) is expected to be the worst quarter this year due to business closures and high unemployment. Hence, some hedging may be handy. Heading should be very small portion of the portfolio.
Should we sell in May and Go Away?
Based on Wallstreet phenomena, they term the stock market into 2 cycle, best 6 months (“NOV 1 – APRIL 30” and worst 6 months (MAY 1 – OCT 31) of the year. "Sell in May and go away" is an investment saying that warn investors to divest their stock holdings in May and wait to reinvest in November because the ROI during these worst 6 months are very negligible and risk is high. So, many folks sell some part of their investments and sit on the sidelines or go on vacation. This myth is being followed by many institutional investors, fund managers and financial institutions. However, this myth many not be true this year because there is “nowhere to go” by courtesy of COVID-19. Nobody will risk going on vacation or travelling during this uncertain period. That do not mean that stock market won’t go down. As I said earlier, we may see volatility return to the stock market because second quarter (March – June) is expected to be the worst quarter of this year. Lots of companies could potentially fail to deliver revenue and profit forecast and as a matter of fact, there may be some pullback in the stock market. However, in the second half of the year, the business may pick up and earning may look better. But there is also a fear that Coronavirus may return in the fall. This is scary because there is no good medication except remdesivir from Gilead which is nothing great. Also, there is no vaccine which happens to be the need of the hour. Hopefully, if we are lucky there may be some vaccine by the end of the year. Visualizing all these factors, I am apprehensive about the stock market for next few weeks.
Should we invest in Biotech Stock or it’s too risky and better to stay away?
There were some questions went around in my WhatsApp group whether to invest in Biotech stock or we are better sticking with fundamentally superior stocks and dividend paying stock? The most important thing to consider is what type of investor you are. Are you conservative, growth or aggressive investor? If you are a conservative investor then do not even look at the biotech sector. If you are a growth or aggressive investor, please read on.. Let me answer the last thing first. Is it too Risky? YES. This is a sector with high risks and high rewards. It’s possible that the stock may fall 80-90% in a day or it may skyrocket more than 1000% on a single day, applicable particularly to small biotech stocks. In other word, the return on Investment (ROI) can be exponential or it can even go to ZERO. It has humongous potential if we can pick the right stock or huge losses if we pick the wrong one. Every stock carries some risk(s) but biotech stocks are much riskier. That’s why people say, “invest only that much you are willing to lose”. We need do in-depth research to factor in all these considerations before buying a biotech stock.
What should we analyze before buying any biotech stock?
Biotech stocks need a lot of research because the way they work is totally different than blue chip stocks, particularly smaller biotech companies. Here are some of the critical factors to be analyzed while buying biotech stocks:
- The drug pipelines – one or multiple drugs?
- Which phase(s) the drugs clinical trials are in?
- How are the clinical trials going for the company? Past, present and future possibilities.
- Do they have any revenue?
- How much Cash does they have?
- Will they be diluting shares in the near future? – This is difficult to know.
- How much debt do they have?
- Who are the men behind the company and their track record (Management Team and their experiences)?
- Who are the institutional investors and how much percentage of the company is held by them?
- What is the probability of getting FDA approval?
- If approved, how much revenue can it generate?
- What’s the competition, is any other company developing the same drug – if so, is this superior on efficiency and efficacy?
- How much should I buy that I am willing to lose if something goes wrong?
- When should I take some chips (profit) out of the table?
- Should I buy/sell in a phased manner or all at once?
There may be many more factors but I have put what important ones that came to my mind. Even after doing all these researches the investors may not succeed. Many people get burnt because of these reasons outlined below (based on my experiences):
- Picking the wrong stock or picking right stock but timing is not right – this is most difficult of the lot.
- Failure of drug trial which may fail in any phase, Phase 1, 2, 3 etc.
- The drug may not get FDA approval
- People keep chasing the stock and buy at sky high prices
- There is no exit or mitigation strategy to get out of the stock – very important to know this.
- Getting trapped by false promises, hype on the message boards, or getting scared and jumping out of the ship.
- Not taking profit when there is a big jump in share price
- Not accumulating when the stock is beaten down insanely by the street although there is no news or no change in fundamentals.
- Keep holding the losers for long time despite the failure of a drug trial or FDA approval.
- Unable to know facts and manipulations: Small biotech stocks are prone to big institutional manipulations to drive price up/down significantly to scare retail investors and create panic and reap their gains.
- Not keeping watch on regular basis because Biotech stocks are events driven viz. news, trial, approval etc. Unable to to act very fast under certain situations when quick decision is needed.
- Selling at wrong time: sometimes we may be right on 99% of the things but still the stock may not be doing much, causing frustration and selling the stock.
- Lack of patience and not doing dollar cost average and getting out
Some of these are applicable to conservative stocks as well. For example, is Boeing, 3M, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobile, Chevron, Wellsfargo, American Express, Goldman Sachs, GE, Macys, Disney, MacDonald, CocaCola not down this year? All of these are conservative stock and some of them have good dividends. But at times, every company goes through a bad phase. However, for such conservative stocks the risk to the downside may not be as huge as a biotech stock and many such companies turnaround after few months or years. But in that case, you should have patience to do dollar cost average and wait for long term. This is true for any stock whether conservative or aggressive or biotech or anything for that matter. However, what makes the biotech different is the risks and rewards. If a company comes with a great positive clinical trial for a critical disease then the stock may jump even 1x, 2x, 10x, 20x, 50x in a very short time. However, the strategy should NOT be based around “I will be ‘Aamir’ or ‘Phakir’ ”, meaning rich or poor in a short timeframe. That’s extremely dangerous. Rather, the strategy should be built around facts and good research. The rest, we just can’t control – some of these are true for any stock, it does not matter biotech or any other sector.
My final thoughts: Please note that “currently, about 10,000 people turn age 65 each day, which is the standard age for retirement. So, in future, they need more medical attention, viz. hospital visits, dugs, surgery, dependent care and so on. One thing that always drives the stock market is “Greed” and “Fear”. This drives our emotions to be too greedy and not sell or too scared to not buy when we should… Every investor has their own style of investing. So, it all depends on an individual’s investment style. Anything that works best for us is the best style as long as we make money, it does not matter whether we are conservative or aggressive or super aggressive investor. Those investors who are willing to take high risk/high reward should invest in biotech, who are averse to risk are better to stay away from biotech investing. It’s not everybody’s cup of tea to digest the volatility and risk. To give you a perspective, you see the below for ROI:
ROI S&P 500 since 2000 till date (20+ years)
· DOW went up 112.3% till date.
· S&P 500 went up 105.03% till date.
· Nasdaq Biotech index went up 312.5%.
· Biotech Index (BTK) went up whooping 1336.2%.
So, take a moment and think whether it’s worth investing in biotech or not? Answer is in front of the readers to determine the facts.
Major Stock Market Performances in 2020
Indexes | 52 weeks (% change) | YTD % (last blog) | YTD % Change |
DOW | --4.38% | -15.05% | -14.27 |
S&P 500 | 4.58% | -11.03% | -8,52% |
NASDAQ | 22.10% | -3.59% | 3.92% |
China Shanghai Index | -2.57% | -6.94% | -7.61% |
India BSE Sensex | -22.22% | -23.43% | -25.65% |
Japan Nikki | -2.08% | -15.89% | -12.32% |
Hongkong Hang Seng | -16.10% | -13.51% | -18.78% |
Source: Wall Street Journal
Sectorial Performances 1 Year (U.S Stocks)
Sectors | Last Blog | As of Date |
IT (Best sector YTD) | 16.05% | 29.09% |
Health Care | 14.89% | 12.48% |
Communication and Services | -0.48 | +9.40% |
Consumer Discretionary | -1.97% | +6.97% |
Utilities | 5.71% | -4.02% |
Consumer Staples | 6.63% | -0.40% |
Real Estate | -2.72% | -9.85% |
Industrials | -18.12% | -15.3% |
Financials | -17.91% | -19.19% |
Energy | -47.96% | -38.99% |
Source: Fidelity.com
Now let me discuss about my current month’s inclusion to my Blog Portfolio.
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC (SPG)
Simon Property Group (SPG) is a global leader in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company listed in NYSE. The company is located in Indianapolis, USA. It has properties across North America, Europe and Asia which provides community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales. Basically, it comes in the category of Real Estate (REIT). I usually write about growth stock but this is a company which has the blend of both Growth and excellent dividend. This stock should fit to most people’s portfolio.
I know most of the readers might not have heard of this name, but I am sure most of you have shopped in one of its American malls or shopping centers. Those who lives in Bay Area, you must have gone to many of the malls, like San Francisco outlet in Livermore, Stanford Shopping Centre, Great Mall, Stoneridge Shopping Centre, Gilroy Premium Outlet and so on. Likewise, it has thousands of malls and shopping center across America, Europe and Asia. But the question is, does it make sense to own SPG shares during this Coronavirus pandemic? Obviously, some may think that it’s foolishness to talk about such stock during this time. I can understand that, it’s a risky proposition to take a stake in the “king of the malls,” no doubt. Add to that, Simon Property Group has laid off 30% of its staff recently. The company also eliminated CEO David Simon’s pay completely. So, under such circumstances why do we invest in such a company when it’s going through such hard time? But as I keep telling “the best return is possible when we invest during the worst time”. And Simon Property comes under that umbrella. Now the time is bad, stock is volatile, risk is high. But…
Why do I like SPG?
SPG is an American commercial real estate company, the largest retail real estate investment trust (REIT), and the largest shopping mall operator in the US. This is an 800-pound gorilla in its field. It owns or it has an interest in more than 325 properties comprising approximately 241,000,000 square feet of leasable area in North America and Asia. Do you think that people will stop going to malls or stop shopping? Look at the beaches like Florida where there is no place to put a fit despite the pandemic! Once the malls are opened and COVID-19 medications/vaccines are available, people will rush back to the malls. Agreed, America is struggling with 14.5% unemployment at this time but many of those furloughed or laid-off workers will come back to work. In last couple of weeks, businesses have started reopening slowly across U.S. Correspondingly, some of the malls have also started to reopen and Simon group is leading the way for all realty groups. The company is taking a number of additional steps to keep its facilities clean, handing out face masks, and limiting the number of customers those can enter the mall at a given time. That way, the customers feel safe to visit the malls and have a good shopping experience. Obviously, these steps do not come free but it helps the company to generate some revenue under such a terrible time. Please note that Livermore outlet is also opening from next week. SPG is financially bigger, conservative and strong relative to its peers in the sector. Last year, the company collected $5.7 billion in rent payments. Now let’s glance through its financials.
Financials
Market Capitalization: 17.02 Billion
Revenue: $5.66 billion.
Trailing P/E: 8.62, Forward P/E: 49.26.
Price to Sales: 3.03, Price to Book: 7.96.
Quarterly Revenue Growth: -0.9%, Earnings Growth: -20.20% (impacted by COVID-19).
Total Cash: $3.72 billion
Total Debt: 28.07 billon
Return on Equity: 69.08%
Institutional Holding: 98.34%
52 Week High: $171.81, 52 Week Low: 42.25.
Forward Dividend Yield: 15%.
My final thoughts: Please refer to the above table and whatever has been marked in bold are the real strength of Simon’s property. Out of the whole lot, there are 3 real good things that I like:
- Return on Equity (ROE) is huge 69.08%. I could not believe this, so re-verified with Fidelity, where it shows even more i.e. 78.47%.
- Institutional Holdings: 98.3% which is huge (Vanguard holds: 13.2%, Blackrock: 9.66%, State Street: 6.6% and so on..
- Forward Dividend is 15%, this is huge but I can expect that the company may trim its dividend. Last quarter dividend was due in May but the company has not declared it yet!
- Finally, what I like is the shares are trading cheap. Currently, the stock is trading at $54.59 which gives us a 68% discount to its 52-weeks high.
- This is a great long-term investment and fits into the both conservative and aggressive investors portfolio. But reminding the readers that this stock is also very volatile from time to time. That’s the reason I say, “keep investing in a phased manner” rather than buying at once. I have already invested in the company, but when I did more research on the company to write on my blog, I liked even more. I will be adding some more shares probably next week. If there is any pull back then it would be a great opportunity for long term investors. But as a principle, I never hesitate to take some chips out of the table, if there is reasonable increase in the share price. This is a great stock in the real estate sector with handsome dividend and coincidently significant growth opportunity in the long run.
Risk: No stock is immune to stock market decline, particularly in such a volatile stock market. I will not be surprised to see the stock coming down to around $42-45 level, if the stock market tanks. However, to mitigate the risk, gradual accumulation may be right way to go. I can add some now and may keep accumulating if it goes down further. This is a company which survived the financial crisis of 2008-2009. I guess this company is a gem in the group and has a very long future. However, if situation changes drastically then I will not hesitate to get rid of my portfolio, how great the stock/company may be. But at this time, it gives humongous opportunities for the long term investors.
Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of May 25, 2020)
Equity | Suggest Price | Current Price | Suggest Date | % Change | My View |
STOCK (All prices are in USD) | |||||
51.63 | 318.89 | 1/25/13 | 518% | HOLD | |
47 | 234.91 | 11/13/13 | 400% | Buy on Dip | |
77.18 | 294.91 | 12/12/13 | 282% | HOLD | |
311.73 | 2436.87 | 4/12/14 | 682% | Buy on Dip | |
67.28 | 199.7 | 2/21/16 | 197% | Buy - Long term | |
36.53 | 30.1 | 5/28/18 | -18% | HOLD | |
26.13 | 16.62 | 9/18/18 | -36% | SOLD @16.8 | |
134.81 | 825.17 | 11/25/18 | 512% | Buy on Dip | |
297.57 | 429.32 | 1/6/19 | 44% | HOLD | |
17.66 | 7.24 | 2/17/19 | -59% | HOLD | |
20.16 | 19.42 | 12/10/19 | -4% | Wait for earnings on 5/29. | |
64.66 | 70 | 5/26/19 | 8% | SOLD @ $70 | |
87.53 | 96.91 | 9/1/19 | 11% | HOLD | |
8.74 | 7.6 | 1/1/20 | -13% | HOLD | |
4.27 | 3.27 | 1/29/20 | -23% | Accumulate | |
12 | 14.46 | 3/22/20 | 21% | Accumulate | |
76.91 | 136.8 | 4/19/20 | 78% | Buy on Dip | |
54.59 | 54.59 | 5/25/20 | 0% | NEW ADDITION | |
ETF | |||||
139.1 | 193.85 | 8/16/15 | 39% | HOLD | |
MUTUAL FUND | |||||
11.46 | 23.14 | 3/1/13 | 102% | HOLD | |
59.45 | 140.06 | 12/20/14 | 136% | HOLD | |
9.05 | 17.42 | 1/15/16 | 92% | HOLD | |
37.32 | 75.71 | 3/20/16 | 103% | HOLD | |
43.66 | 59.41 | 9/24/17 | 36% | HOLD | |
Note: Dividends are not adjusted on the price. | |||||
N.A: Date Not available as yet. | | | | ||
Positions CLOSED since last Blog
In last few weeks I closed many positions (Stock and Mutual Fund). Here are the ticker symbols: SQ, IQ.
That’s all for today. Wish you great investing! Stay tuned for my next blog. Thanks for your time. If you want to get alert on my investment action, then please subscribe to shesagroup_invest@googlegroups.com or you can also join my WhatsApp group, if interested.
Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I write on my blog and avoid recommending any security that I do not own or follow. Anybody buying or selling the equities mentioned here would do it on their own risk.
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