Shesa's JULY 2025 Investment Blog

 By Shesa Nayak

U.S. Stock Market Update 

The U.S. stock market has rallied to record highs in July 2025, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,279.35 on July 3, up 6.76%, and NASDAQ up 6.68% for the year. These gains were driven by a strong June jobs report (147,000 nonfarm payrolls vs. 110,000 expected) and a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal with 20% tariffs. But ADP reported private sector lost -33,000 jobs in June vs. +100,000 expected. Trump’s one Big Beautiful Bill passed in the congress and signed by Donald Trump on July 4. The Geopolitical situation has subsided after U.S bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. The stock market has been cheering and AI stocks are leading the way along with some of the industrials stocks. 

A word to the wise “A recent MIT study found that workers using AI saw a 60% jump in productivity. That’s not hype - that’s hard data showing AI’s transformative power for businesses. So, if we still think that AI is a hype, it’s time to re-think!!

Trade Deals

Today President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs are set to go into effect Aug. 1, not  on July 9 as planned earlier.  The countries who won't be able to make deal by that time will have to the April Tariff which Trump had put on the liberation day. Meanwhile Elon Musk announced yesterday the formation of "America Party" and submitted for registration. We will see how it goes..

Economic

• ISM Manufacturing at 49.0, and JOLTS Job Openings at 7.769 million vs.7.3 million
• The Consumer Confidence dropped to 93.0 from 98.4 in May, below the expected 99.4. 
• Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE): The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came at 2.7%, vs. 2.6% expected. 
• There are some positives and some negatives in the economic situation. This economy isn’t breaking, rather it’s restabilizing.

FED Rate Cuts possibility: Many economists are projecting about 3 cuts this year and 2 cuts next year. We will see if rate cuts come in July or September. Next FED meeting is scheduled for July 29-30. If economic numbers remain soft we may see the rate cuts else most likely September 16-17 are highly likely.

Q2 Earnings: The Q2 earnings will kick-off from next week, 7/15. The technology earnings will kick-off with Netflix (NFLX) on 7.17 followed by Tesla (TSLA) on 7/23 and then all other mega tech companies will report earnings. 

As the stock market continues to make new highs the risks also keeps increasing because stocks become expensive. So, what to do? Should we invest? Take profit? Get out of market or remain invested? I will share my thoughts but before that let’s see the stock market indexes:

Indexes	Close TUE 12/30/24	Close FRI 5/16/25	Change in 2025	% Change in 2025	All Time High	From All Time High	% from All Time High
DOW	42,544.22	44,828.53	2,284.31	5.37	45,073.63	-245.10	-0.54%
S&P 500	5,881.63	6,279.35	397.72	6.76	6,099.97	179.38	2.94%
NASDAQ	19310.79	20,601.10	1,290.31	6.68	20,204.58	396.52	1.96%
Russel 2000	2,230.16	2,249.04	18.88	0.85	2,466.49	-217.45	-8.82%
SOX (Semi)	4,979.93	5,647.12	667.19	13.40	5,931.83	-284.71	-4.80%

Q2 2025 Earnings

The Q2 earnings will kick-off from next week, 7/15. For Q2, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 5.0%. If 5.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth reported by the index since Q4 2023 (4.0%).

Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.2. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.4).

Economy News

• Interest Rate: 4.5%. 
• GDP Annual GDP: 2%, March (Q1): -0.5%
• CPI/Inflation: 2.4% (May)
• Producer Price Index (PPI): 2.6%
• NonFarm Payroll: 147K (May) vs. 110K. Unemployment: 4.1% 
• Retail Sales: down 0.9% in May
• PCE: 2.4% (Apr) vs. 2.3% continues to decline
• ISM Manufacturing: 48.5 in May vs. 48.7% (Apr). Below 50 is Contraction to economy.
• ISM Services: 49.0 vs. 48.8. 
• ADP Report: -33,000 jobs vs. 100,000K expected
• Consumer Confidence Index: 98 (May) up 12.8% highest in 4 years!
• Consumer Sentiment: 60.7 vs. 52.2 
• Mortgage Rate: 6.67% for 30-year Fixed.

Brief highlights of Trump’s Big Tax Beautiful Bill

On July 4, Donald Trump signed tax bill and here are the key highlights:

• Extends: 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, makes most cuts permanent
• Deductions: Tips, overtime, auto loan interest (temporary)
• SALT Deduction: Raised to $40,000 for 5 years
• Child Tax Credit: Increased to $2,200
• Trump Accounts: Tax-deferred savings for children
• Cuts the budget on: Medicaid, SNAP: provides food benefits to low-income families
• Spending: Boosts defense and border security
• Deficit Impact: Adds $2.8-$3.8 trillion to the deficit by 2034

What would be the best investment at this time?

I conducted a poll on my WhatsApp group and over 100 members voted. Most of the respondents    voted the top pick as Nidia (NVDA), followed by META, GOOG and AVGO. One stock that  I added was Tesla (TSLA) and not Google. I know there are many good stocks in the market, but my poll was based on the Mag 7 + another few stocks. With that said, you may be wondering why did I pick Tesla (TSLA) instead of Google. Here are my thoughts.

Why did I pick Tesla (TSLA) as one of my stock pick?

Tesla (TSLA) launched its Robotaxi service in Austin on Sunday, 7/22 without any major issues. And the test is expanding to other parts in Austin. Gradually  it will expand to other cities. Also, FSD is being tested in China and most of the European nations. On another major development, Tesla Model Y drove itself to deliver the car to the customer. This is the first time in the World that the Tesla car drove itself to a customer without any driver :):. As I said on my WhatsApp group, this is where Tesla and autonomous driving is heading for the future. I also said to write the Catalysts why Tesla becomes one of my top pick for the long term investor in my next blog. Now that Trump administration is taking away the $7,500 tax credit after September Sept 30, we may see sales to pick up this quarter as people who want to buy EVs will rush to buy. Tesla is getting its momentum back for its European sales, China is also doing good. Now let’s see some other catalysts.

Tesla Stock Catalysts (2025–2028):

1. Robotaxi Service: Launch and scaling of Cybercab autonomous ride-sharing, targeting production in 2026, could drive significant valuation growth if regulatory hurdles are cleared.

2. Affordable Vehicle Launch: New $25,000–$30,000 model expected in later part of 2025, potentially boosting sales volume and market share.

3. Energy Storage Growth: Tesla Energy’s record 31.4 GWh deployment in 2024, with 67% revenue growth, positions it as a key revenue driver.

4. Autonomous Driving Advancements: Full Self-Driving (FSD) improvements and potential regulatory approvals for unsupervised driving could enhance vehicle appeal and enable robotaxi networks.

5. Optimus (Humanoid Robot) Development: Humanoid robot progress, with pilot production eyed for 2025, ramp up production in 2026, could open huge opportunity. 

6. Tax cut on interest rate paid for vehicle loan should help, but $7,500 EV credit will go away after September 30.

6. Elon Musk’s Focus: Musk’s reduced role in government (DOGE) may refocus efforts on Tesla, boosting investor confidence. But on July 4, Musk has launched a “America Party” to give the power to the people. I will watch and evaluate how it goes..

Risks: EV sales are down, rising competition, high valuation and potential brand damage from Musk’s political ties could offset gains. But the main risk is his feud with Donald Trump and you never know how it can go. Moreover, further focus on forming a new party may not be good for investors, as Musk’s focus may potentially shift back to politics.

My final thoughts: I have heard from many friends who say they don’t like Musk or their kids do not like Musk -or- for that matter Tesla car. But I am an INVESTOR - I go with the future potential of the company and stock’s prospect. If Musk’s focus does not shift too much towards politics and his feud with Trump does not deteriorate too much then Tesla stock can multiply it value in next 2-3 years visualizing the current pipelines. However, if the risks proliferate then I do not see significant growth and may remain on a trading range for few months or years.  I will re-evaluate if that happens. Remember, never write-off Elon Musk. He is one of the visionary after Steve Jobs and taken Tesla after almost bankrupted twice in 2008 and 2018.  I have not even included the humongous potential of SpaceX, xAI, X, StarLink and NuroLink!! Hypothetically speaking, let’s say Musk says, he is taking SpaceX public and/or xAI and Tesla shareholders would be given preferences. So, what happens to Tesla stock? “it may EXPLODE”. But those are just speculation, so let’s not count on those. And finally, how much return on investment (ROI) Tesla has given since IPO on June 29, 2010 in 15 years? Astronomical 24,586%!! Hence, TESLA would remain one of my top pick unless I see many red flags. But that’s me, everyone has their own comfort and own discretion whether to invest or not to invest! But I am not emotional on any investment and decide based on merit of the stock, not on emotion. Everyone should do their due diligence.

What to expect from the Stock market?

• Several days ago, I wrote in my WhatsApp group that “not being invested at this time may not be advisable” and potentially losing great opportunity in this bull market. I do understand that market has gone up significantly from its April low and S&P valuation has gone up to 22.5% which is almost approaching to .Com boom.
• The fundamentals remain strong, with stabilizing jobs and inflation. The technicals are healthy, with no signs of overbought extremes. And sentiment isn’t euphoric yet!
• Historically,  July has been a good month for the stock market.
• We may see several Trade Deals signed in next few days before the July 9 trade deadline, this would be positive for the market
• AI momentum to continue but always remember it’s never a straight line. Follow the market Trend. Hence, I emphasize to Invest on what’s working
• FED Meetings: July 29-30. I am 50-50 whether there will be interest rate cut. But it will gather momentum for future rate cuts. Let’s assume that in worst case scenario Powell does not cut rate,  but whoever replaces him in May 2026 will surely do it as soon as humanly possible. We may think that’s almost a year from now, which might sound too far out to matter. But the drawn-out process might matter a lot. Just the expectation of lower rates could provide a bullish backdrop for the entire market through the early/middle of next year. Having said that, I will be extremely cautions next year. I will write sometime in future about the cause.
• We are in BULL market, take advantage of it, but always be prepared for the UNKNOWN. Neither the stock market nor any stock go up on a straight line for ever. So, be optimistic but always ready for the pullback. Be watchful for later part of August and September 
• Per Republicans, the next move is deregulations. We will see..This may be favorable for financial, insurance, biotech etc.
• Answer to my question: Should we invest? Take profit? Get out of market, remain invested? This is the time personally I will definitely be invested. Profit taking is a continuous process for me. No, I will certainly NOT get out of the market. 

My Strategy

I keep putting this for new readers as well as to refresh the memory of my existing readers. As part of my strategy nothing much has changed. Strategy does not keep changing always. We need to fine tune our strategy based on the market situation. But I think if there is further pullbacks  in the stock market then it may provide good buying opportunity. Here are some strategies that I would like to emphasize/re-emphasize.

• Always HOLD some CASH to leverage market pullback
• Watch the market trend and Invest accordingly. Put Money on what’s working, not what’s losing.  Remember “hope” is not a strategy!!
• Have patience and thoughtful execution, not to be thrilled or too depressed when situation do not go our way. Controlling the emotions (Greed and Fear) is the KEY
• Have some mitigation strategy: taking constant profits, hedging the portfolio
• Think long term but current market provide great short term trading opportunity in momentum stocks - “Tactical trading” - not day trading
• Always have a conscious buy list on you comfort level: Decide fast and act fast - these days market may not wait to long thinkers..
• Avoid buying all position at once - if we accumulate then must have clarity on why I am accumulating and how far should I accumulate?
• Avoid hanging with losers, same money can be better utilized with good stock which has chances of faster turnaround and better ROI. 
• The most difficult thing is to have patience to keep accumulating when a good stock is down and may take sometime to recover. If recovery is not on the horizon, avoid it or accumulate very slowly
• Be aware and avoid catching the falling knife. Cheap stocks become cheaper and then worthless sometime. 
• Listen to others but always do your due diligence and decide on what you are comfortable

Stock Market TOP sectors for 2025

Sector	YTD Performance in %age
Industrial (TOP)	13.33%
Communication Services	10.05%
Financials	10.04%
Information Technology	9.27%
Materials	8.78%
Utilities	7.98%

You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:

Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd

Now let me discuss this month’s hedging pick for my Blog Portfolio.

Robinhood (HOOD)

The company was founded in 2013, Robinhood is a U.S. based fintech offering commission-free trading of stocks, ETFs, options, and crypto via its mobile app and web platform. It targets retail investors with a user-friendly interface and low-cost access through mobile and desktop. Its platform allows users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), American depository receipts, options, gold, and cryptocurrencies. The company offers fractional trading, recurring investments, fully-paid securities lending, access to investing on margin, cash sweep, instant withdrawals, retirement program, around-the-clock trading.

Why do I like HOOD?

Robinhood provides Trading Platforms: Mobile app, web platform, and Robinhood Legend (desktop for active traders). I have used so many trading platforms like Fidelity, BOA, AmeriTrade, eTrade, Scottrade etc. but  Robinhood’s platform is one of the easiest, flexible and very user friendly. Particularly its mobile App is top class. Of course, it may lack some features but for the retail investors, this is the BEST by miles comparing to others. 

Currently it offers 24/5 trading for tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs in the EU, from Sunday 8 PM ET to Friday 8 PM ET, meaning continuous 24-hour trading each day within that window. In future, it plans to extend trading to a full 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, including weekends, on their Layer 2 blockchain, as announced in their June 2025 product updates in the EU. Please note that, 24 x 5 trading is available in U.S, but only limited stocks and ETF can be traded, no options trading. The 24 x 7 trading are yet to start in U.S, not because of HOOD but because of redundant U.S regulations. Hope Trump’s deregulation would be good for HOOD, if the deregulations materialize. As of May 2025, Robinhood has 25.8 million funded customers. 

Prediction Market Hub: The company also launched a prediction markets hub in March 2025, allowing users to bet on event outcomes like sports (NFL, NBA), interest rate decision and so on. 

Robinhood Strategies: Launched on March 2025, a robo-advisor offering tailored, expert-managed portfolios for a 0.25% annual fee (capped at $250 for Gold members). It has over $250 million Asset under Management, 75,000+ accounts as of Q1 2025.

Robinhood Banking: Set to launch fall 2025, provides checking/savings accounts with 4% APY, up to $2.5M FDIC insurance via Coastal Community Bank.

Robinhood Cortex: AI-powered assistant, planned for late 2025, offers real-time market analysis and investment insights for Gold members.

Strategy

The stock is currently trading at $94.4. The 52-week high for this stock is $100.88. So, there is not much discount. However, the company is growing its revenue and profit like never before. I have been accumulating this stock for last few months. As most of my blog readers know, I am  a growth investor and usually I never buy any stock at once. I always buy in small quantities in a phased manner. And I use such opportunity to accumulate and build my portfolio. When there is bump up, it’s extremely important to take some chips out of the table and book some profits to mitigate risks and generate some cash. 

Financials

• Revenue: $927M, +50% Year over year (YOY)
• Net Income: $336M, +114% YoY
• EPS: $0.37, +106% YoY

Risks:

The stock hit all-time high last week. It’s trading at 67 times of its future earnings and that’s very expensive. There is no saying that it won’t go down further. Furthermore, if stock market goes down it may get hit. Nobody can predict the top or bottom of a stock. Particularly, growth companies stocks are very volatile. So, it’s suitable for growth investors who wants to take some risks. The risk averse investors must take a cautious look.

My final thoughts

Despite the fact that there is a valuation concern, I like this stock. Because the stock has strong user growth, diversification, revenue growth and income growth. The stock has great momentum and enormous growth opportunity. The recent 24 x 5 trading in Europe gives it a great opportunity to generate hefty revenue. And let’s not forget, once the 24 x 7 trading platform is implemented in U.S would be big. The company keeps bringing new products and flexibilities. So, I like this stock. Having said that, if I see any red flag in any of my holding, then I won’t hesitate to pull the trigger irrespective of how great the company/stock may be. I don’t fall in love with any stock. So, emotions should not impact my investment decision. At this time, I feel HOOD has a huge potential, hence I am invested.

A few Equity/Stocks to watch

• META
• AVGO
• NVDA
• TSLA
• NFLX
• CRWV
• SOXL
• TQQQ
• CVNA
• ENVX
• APLD
• ARM
• IONQ, QUBT
• TEM
• RXRX
• SMCI
• CRWD
• SNOW
• RKT

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of JULY 6, 2025)

Equity	Suggested Price	Current Price	Suggested Date	% Change	My View  (see disclaimer)
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
AAPL	12.9	213.55	1/25/13	1555%	HOLD
META	47	719.1	11/13/13	1430%	Accumulate on dip
MA	77.18	569.24	12/12/13	638%	HOLD
AMZN	15.58	223.4	4/12/14	1334%	Accumulate on dip of about 5%
SHOP	13.48	116.52	11/25/18	764%	HOLD
SPG	54.59	166.74	5/25/20	205%	HOLD
NVDA	23.9	159.64	2/13/22	568%	Accumulate on dip below about 550
TSLA	290.25	315.35	5/1/22	9%	Accumulate
RKT	14.24	14.24	7/6/25	0%	Redfin (RDFN) on my portfolio, bought by RKT. Accumulate RKT.
SOXL	15.66	26.43	4/6/23	69%	Accumulate on dip
GOOG	123.25	180.55	5/21/23	46%	HOLD
PLTR	20.49	134.36	11/19/23	556%	HOLD
PANW	142.06	201.82	3/31/24	42%	May add below $190
ENVX	10.48	11.39	4/28/24	9%	Accumulate
Z	51.92	72.53	8/11/24	40%	HOLD
LRCX	76.16	98.81	11/11/24	30%	May Buy below $90
RXRX	6.76	5.27	1/2/25	-22%	Accumulate
IONQ	37.46	44.39	2/18/25	18%	Accumulate
AVGO	203.64	275.18	4/5/25	35%	Buy on Dip below $265
APLD	11.18	10.45	6/15/25	-7%	Accumulate
HOOD	94.4	94.4	7/6/25	0%	NEW ADDITION
	ETF
IHF	27.82	46.46	8/16/15	67%	HOLD
MUTUAL FUND
PRMTX	59.45	170.58	12/20/14	187%	HOLD
FSRPX	9.05	19.57	1/15/16	116%	HOLD
FSMEX	43.66	60.38	9/24/17	38%	Likely SELL on Monday

Terminologies used under "My View" column

Buy: I can buy the stock or take a new position

Accumulate: I keep accumulating/adding the stock whenever I get an opportunity

Accumulate on Dip: I will accumulate only if it dips

Buy on Dip below: That's the intention to buy if it dips below certain price

HOLD: Neither adding nor Selling

SOLD: Sold all stock

New Addition: Adding a new position to the Blog Portfolio

Economic report this week (7/6 - 7/13)

Wed, 7/9: Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting

Equity Sold since my Last Blog

None.

Here is my YouTube channel link:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCt7oLVUMG3NkJUzAVUzl4Tg

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.

Note: Click on Blog archives to read all my Blogs and updates.