Weekend Update - 3|30|25

The blood bath on the street continues and shows no sign of relief. Last week, the U.S. stock market experienced a volatile period with a downward trend overall. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.5% and the Nasdaq falling 2.6% for the week, marking their fifth and seventh losses in the last six and nine weeks, respectively. This came after a brief recovery earlier in the week, with stocks gaining on Monday and Tuesday due to optimism about potentially narrower tariff scopes from the Trump administration. However, the momentum faded as the week progressed, with a sharp sell-off on Wednesday ahead of an auto tariff announcement, followed by further declines on Thursday. The Friday decline was primarily driven by a hot inflation report and weak consumer sentiment 57.9 vs. 63. This raised concerns about economic health and the impact of tariffs. So far, S&P 500 down 6.3%, and Nasdaq down 8.1% for March so far. From the all-time high Nasdaq is down 14.26% and remains in the correction territory. S&P is down 8.5% from its all-time high. 


What to expect this week?
I expect that the U.S. stock market may continue to experience volatility as investors digest key economic data and ongoing policy developments. The most important news expected to be  attention to potential tariff announcements from the Trump administration on Wednesday, April 2, when Trump administration is elected to announce tariffs for many countries. In addition, ADP payrolls and factory orders are expected on Wednesday, followed by ISM Services PMI and trade balance data on Thursday. On Friday, we will see the very critical Nonfarm Payrolls report. All these news can make it a very volatile week depending on how tarrifs, economic data and labor market data. 

Critical Evens this week
TUESDAY, APRIL 1:  ISM Manufacturing, Job Openings 
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2: TRUMP reciprocal Tariff announcements, ADP Payroll
THURSDAY, APRIL 3: ISM Services
FRIDAY, APRIL 4: U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payroll)

So, what to do?
Nobody knows as the market has been terribly uncertain and no sign of any positive momentum. In my personal opinion, it would be sensible to wait for these data and see if there is/are any positives. If things are getting better, then it would be logical to get into the market and grab the opportunity. All of us wish that the market turnaround, but unfortunately that's not the case at this time. I know this marks has been extremely frustrating but let's not lose hope. A lots of negatives  surrounding the markets but there will be light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully, it should come to an end sometime soon.

My Next Blog: Please note that I will NOT be publishing my March 2025 blog this month. I do not see much reason to publish in such an environment. I will post it once there are some visibilities. But I will keep my group and readers posted through updates. 

Stocks to Watch: Nothing specific, overall market to be watched. 


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