Shesa's MARCH 2020 Investment Blog

MARCH 2020 - INVESTMENT BLOG

By Shesa Nayak

U.S. Stock Market Update     

Not sure where to start!! The U.S and World is going through an unprecedented crisis which was never witnessed before and that’s Coronavirus!! It has been a phenomenon across the globe and all focus is “on and around Coronavirus”. New York, Washington state, California are almost shutdown in order to control spread of the virus. However, as Wall Street Journal reported “if this government-ordered shutdown continues for much more than another week or two, the human cost of job losses and bankruptcies will exceed what most Americans imagine”. I do agree with some of their assessments but probably stopping further spread of virus is the need of the hour.

Why is the world so focused about Coronavirus? There are good reasons for that, Coronavirus (COVID-19) is causing tremendous fear and panic, people are dying in large number, the whole world economy is getting toasted, the stock markets are getting collapsed and most of the countries are getting into recession. The whole world is seeing the worst health and economy crisis probably after the great depression of 1930s. It has rattled the financial markets. Only in this week DOW dropped more than 17%, its biggest one-week fall since October 2008, S&P 500 lost more than 13%  and Nasdaq fell 12.6%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also had their worst weekly performances since the financial crisis in 2008. All these stock indexes have fallen more than 30% in last few weeks. On a couple of occasions DOW had highest number of points and highest percentage drop since black Monday market crash of 1987. So far it has impacted about 144 countries.

The Federal Reserve came to rescue the economy by cutting off 0.50 basis point and cutting another 1% last Sunday bringing the interest rate to 0-0.25%. Such a move had never happened in the history, if I am not mistaken! The government and federal reserve also announced huge stimulus but those have been futile for stock market recovery.

Moving forward, negotiators from Congress and the White House resumed top-level talks over the weekend. Based on the news, officials are negotiating for a stimulus package estimated at $1.4 trillion, includes $1,200 checks for most U.S. adults and hundreds of billions to assist businesses ground almost to a halt by the pandemic. With Federal Reserve emergency lending and other actions, the total effort could reach $4 trillion. It’s not about preventing recession which we are almost there, rather the plan should be to prevent depression. The need of the hour is to wither the storm. This is like a hurricane which may stay little longer than a hurricane and all parties must understand the gravity of the situation!

As I write this blog, the U.S, which confirmed more than 31,000 cases and 390 deaths as of Sunday afternoon, trailed only Italy and China in reported infections. Confirmed cases, however, are a function of testing. Worldwide cases of confirmed coronavirus surpassed 328,000, and there were more than 13,700 deaths. There is doom and gloom everywhere. So, what do I do as an investor? Is there any hope for the recovery? How long this continue? What do we do? Should we get out from this chaos and see all equities and sit on the sideline? Should we take profit (if any)? Should we keep deploying our cash? Well, frankly lot of such questions! You may be reading and watching innumerable news and messages but I will do my little diligence to and share my views but before that let me share the gloomy stock market indexes.

Indexes	1/2/20	Close FRI (3/13/20)	Change in 2020	% Change in 2020	All Time High	All Time High	From All Time High
DOW	28,538.44	19,173.98	-9,364.46	-32.81	29,408.05	-10,234.07	-34.80%
S&P 500	3,230.78	2,304.92	-925.86	-28.66	3,347.96	-1,043.04	-31.15%
NASDAQ	8,972.60	6,879.52	-2,093.08	-23.33	9,575.66	-2,696.14	-28.16%
BTK	5,067.45	3,972.01	-1,095.44	-21.62	5264.82	-1,292.81	-24.56%
NBI	3,786.54	3,084.58	-701.96	-18.54	4165.86	-1,081.28	-25.96%

Major Economy News

With the emergence of unprecedented Coronavirus, the GDP for Q1 and Q2 is going to be hugely impacted. It’s highly likely that we are going to see global recession all over the world.

Bill Gates is leaving Microsoft’s board, the company announced on Friday. Gates co-founded Microsoft in 1975 with Paul Allen. Gates is among Microsoft’s top shareholders, owning 1.36% of shares.

Job Market remains Robust

The February number far exceeded analysts’ expectations. According to the U.S. Labor Department, the economy added 273,000 jobs against estimated 175,000. It indicates that the job market remains robust which is a great sign for the economy. But it's expected that the job report this week could be horrific!

Unemployment Rate: Due to the job gains, the unemployment rate came down to 3.5% from 3.6%. This reclaimed the 50-year low for that important economic indicator.

Average hourly earnings: up 0.3% which was in-line with expectations. This was above the 0.2% rate posted in January.

Stock Indexes at a glance – Some important facts.

• On Wednesday, 3/11/20 officially the 11 years bull market came to an end. In fact, DOW recorded its fastest move from a record high to a bear market since 1931 — 19 days. In November 1931, as the Great Depression was enveloping the U.S., the Dow took a brisk 15 days from a record to a drop of at least 20%.
• On Thursday, 3/12/19: DOW closed down 9.99% for its worst day since Oct. 19, 1987 when the Dow lost 22.61% (Black Monday).
• On Friday, 3/13/20, The DOW closed 1,985 points higher, or 9.4%, at 23,185.62. Friday marked the Dow’s biggest-ever point gain. The S&P 500 climbed 9.2% to 2,711.02 while the Nasdaq Composite surged 9.3% to 7,874.23. The averages posted their biggest one-day gain since October 2008.
• Last week, we witnessed biggest one-week fall since October 2008, DOW dropped more than 17% for the week, its S&P 500 lost more than 13%  and Nasdaq fell 12.6%. 

Why FED’s rate cuts are negated by the Stock Market?

The Fed cut 50-basis-point emergency rate cut a couple weeks ago and then on March 15th FED again announced that it was cutting another 1% to its benchmark interest rate to a range of 0.25% to 0%. This move could not help the stock market and they are still on a downward spiral. In such a recessionary environment caused by pandemic, Fed rate cuts were fairly futile. The travel, tourism and hospitality industries that are being slammed by the new restrictions — as well as citizen locked down at home is not helping to make the economy any better..

The recent drop in mortgage rates inundated lenders with applications causing a traffic jam to even get on the mortgage refinancing at this time. There’s more demand than supply and banks are unable to process the applications. As a matter of fact, the mortgage rates are still high despite the fact that interest is almost ZERO. People locked down and many businesses stopped so obviously people can’t shop under such dire state. Thus, impact of rate cut is blunted. Agreed, credit is on sale, but it won’t make much difference if you can’t afford to buy anything and that’s the state we are now.

As I said during my last investment meet, the Fed's interest rate cut may not be able to bring the people/shoppers out of their home, the transportation business or restaurant or business houses won't start functioning business as usual but the Fed's move is KEY from many aspects. First of all, it instills confidence on individual and businesses that Federal Reserve is doing all that it can do. The interest rate cut would help business and individual to get cheap loan for running their show, if not now but after a few weeks/months. This may also help business to wait and rethink before laying off people. Because once the layoffs start then that would be the worst that can happen. People will lose confidence, stop spending, business will cut their capital expenditure as they won’t be able to generate bigger revenue, profitability will come down causing further lay-offs. This may trigger major recession and then depression, certainly not good for any economy. So, to summarize “Fed did the tight move by cutting the interest rate to almost ZERO”.

Economy Impact of Coronavirus across the globe

• Almost every industry is going to be impacted due to this pandemic and causing the GDP to decline significantly. But the hardest hit industries are Travel related, restaurants and food, entertainment, Sports and betting, gaming, financials, housing and eventually IT sector.
• We are in a terrible environment to project the COVID-19 impact on Economy. Many financial institutions have projected huge deceleration in GDP. Most GDP predictions for the second quarter have ranged from horrible (-8%) to catastrophic by Morgan Stanley (-30%).
• The Q1 earnings season is still about 3 weeks away to identify the actual impact on corporate America. However, I expect that major impacts will be in Q2 rather than Q1.
• Due to tussle between Saudi Arabia and Russia the oil price tumbled to about $28 a barrel.
• World Economy increasing slipping into recession. Looking to the current economy condition, we are almost certainly getting into recession which is almost unavoidable. But the major focus should be to avoid depression.
• We are already in the bear market territory as far as stock market is concerned. How low can it go? Do I know? Unfortunately, I don’t and I do not think anybody know other than a guessing game.

What Actions are being taken by Governments and Fed?

• Government is planning for $2 trillion stimulus package which is still being discussed. Including Fed stimulus, it’s expected to be in the tune of $4 trillion.
• Emergency Interest Rate cut of 0.5% and further cut of 1 point to 0 – 0.25%
• Trump administration have allocated $8.3B to help impacted American due to Coronavirus.
• Additionally, Trump announced that U.S will give individuals, and small and mid-sized businesses a three-month tax holiday to try to fight the economic impact of coronavirus. It will also give affected companies $50 billion more in low-interest loans.
• Economy is still strong: Unemployment at 50 years low (3.5%), Marginal wage growth, more importantly consumer confidence/spending which is really pulling this economy. But all these will change in next few weeks and months..
• World central banks and governments are taking rigorous steps to restrict the spread of pandemic as well as financial aid.

What are the investment questions that comes to mind?

·      How long will this downturn/bear market going to continue?

·      Are we getting into recession or depression?

·      Is it good time to remain invested? Sell ? Buy? Hold?

·      Can the market go to a new high again?

·      Is offense the best strategy of defense?

·      Should we be away from falling knife or jump in where there is blood on the street?

There may be many more questions. And I do not have answers for these. Every market pundit may share their own views and thoughts. I hear many of those but I try to find my own strategy. And I believe each investor should do the same. Because it’s our hard-earned money, so whether we lose or gain, it’s our own. Hence, we should do our due diligence.

Should we Plan or Panic? Strategy for investing under such volatile down market.

The stock market has been like a falling knife and there is no argument about that. However, if history is any evidence then buying equities when there is blood on the street also gives best possible return on investment (ROI). Knowledge is power and as more becomes known about the economy impact of virus, better decision can be made. Every investor needs to ask these questions to themselves. We are at a panic moment, but it’s better to have some strategy to execute rather than keep watching the stock indexes or stock futures..

Here is my strategy

• Evaluate how much CASH/401K/IRA/ROTH/SEP do I have for investing/trading?
• If not much cash, what should I trim/sell and what should I buy which has better chance to rebound and which may provide me better ROI?
• What’s my timeline for investment (Short/long) term? Some part is investment, some trading?
• What if market do not bounce back and keep going down? Do I have enough reserve to sustain, if market tanks for a couple of months/years? Do I have any avenue to get more cash?
• How much Risk can I take and should I take? It may depend on our age, stock market experience, cash need, current job situation and so on..
• My investment style: Aggressive or passive investor?
• I avoid buying at once – a lesson for novice and lesson for genius. Gradual accumulation and dollar cost average of stock having good future potential is best in my view. Because nobody knows the bottom and top. If somebody is genius who knows top/bottom then that’s fine but I may not be that genius..
• Which are the sectors expected to bounce back first? Difficult question: Hardest hit first or Potential first? In my view, it can be decided on case-case basis.
• I have trimmed most of my mutual funds and re-invested. Funds are late to recover..

Some Facts to Consider

·      Stock market may go down tomorrow, next week, next month or next year but ultimately Stock Market always goes up. That’s has been the history since great depression of 1930s. S&P has returned 500 ROI: 7-10%. Please see the table “Forty Years Market Trend for S&P 500”.

·      The best ROI an investor can get is by investing during worst time – e.g. 1999 .com bust, 2008-09 financial crisis, Dec 2018 market turmoil, and now 2020 March where outcome is unknown.. Let’s only be courageous in a calculated manner and not buy everything on both the hands..

·      Coronavirus is here but it will not stay there forever..

·      Patience and strategy are key. In such a highly outrageous market strategy may fail but patience should be beneficial in long run. As long as we think of long term, few years down the line, we may realize that “wow this stock came to this level, I wish I could have bought some…”. If we see financial crisis of 2008-09, where the stocks were and where are they now. On Dec 1, 2008 the S&P 500 was at 735 points and today it’s at 2305 points even after almost 35% rout of the stock market!!

·      As coronavirus sends financial markets reeling, many experts urge to focus on long-term goals rather than short term volatility and pain and I do agree with these experts.

·      Charts can provide some insights but these days high frequency trading (HFT) can blow up the charts in minutes, so do your due diligence.

Market Trend for S&P 500 since 1980 (Note: 2020 figure is till Friday 3/20).

Year	Year Open	Year Close	Year High	Year Low	Annual Change
2020	3,257.85	2,304.92	3,386.15	2,304.92	-28.66%
2019	2,510.03	3,230.78	3,240.02	2,447.89	28.88%
2018	2,695.81	2,506.85	2,930.75	2,351.10	-6.24%
2017	2,257.83	2,673.61	2,690.16	2,257.83	19.42%
2016	2,012.66	2,238.83	2,271.72	1,829.08	9.54%
2015	2,058.20	2,043.94	2,130.82	1,867.61	-0.73%
2014	1,831.98	2,058.90	2,090.57	1,741.89	11.39%
2013	1,462.42	1,848.36	1,848.36	1,457.15	29.60%
2012	1,277.06	1,426.19	1,465.77	1,277.06	13.41%
2011	1,271.87	1,257.60	1,363.61	1,099.23	0.00%
2010	1,132.99	1,257.64	1,259.78	1,022.58	12.78%
2009	931.8	1,115.10	1,127.78	676.53	23.45%
2008	1,447.16	903.25	1,447.16	752.44	-38.49%
2007	1,416.60	1,468.36	1,565.15	1,374.12	3.53%
2006	1,268.80	1,418.30	1,427.09	1,223.69	13.62%
2005	1,202.08	1,248.29	1,272.74	1,137.50	3.00%
2004	1,108.48	1,211.92	1,213.55	1,063.23	8.99%
2003	909.03	1,111.92	1,111.92	800.73	26.38%
2002	1,154.67	879.82	1,172.51	776.76	-23.37%
2001	1,283.27	1,148.08	1,373.73	965.8	-13.04%
2000	1,455.22	1,320.28	1,527.46	1,264.74	-10.14%
1999	1,228.10	1,469.25	1,469.25	1,212.19	19.53%
1998	975.04	1,229.23	1,241.81	927.69	26.67%
1997	737.01	970.43	983.79	737.01	31.01%
1996	620.73	740.74	757.03	598.48	20.26%
1995	459.11	615.93	621.69	459.11	34.11%
1994	465.44	459.27	482	438.92	-1.54%
1993	435.38	466.45	470.94	429.05	7.06%
1992	417.26	435.71	441.28	394.5	4.46%
1991	326.45	417.09	417.09	311.49	26.31%
1990	359.69	330.22	368.95	295.46	-6.56%
1989	275.31	353.4	359.8	275.31	27.25%
1988	255.94	277.72	283.66	242.63	12.40%
1987	246.45	247.08	336.77	223.92	2.03%
1986	209.59	242.17	254	203.49	14.62%
1985	165.37	211.28	212.02	163.68	26.33%
1984	164.04	167.24	170.41	147.82	1.40%
1983	138.34	164.93	172.65	138.34	17.27%
1982	122.74	140.64	143.02	102.42	14.76%
1981	136.34	122.55	138.12	112.77	-9.73%
1980	105.76	135.76	140.52	98.22	25.77%

If you see the above table and get an average then we have got 9.19% return annually. Out of these 41 years, 33 years are green and only 8 years are red. I guess this may give a good perspective to all my blog readers and “what to do” or “not to do”.

Update on Coronavirus as it stands as of today.

The U.S., which confirmed more than 32,000 cases and 400 deaths as of Sunday afternoon, trailed only Italy and China in reported infections. Confirmed cases, however, are a function of testing. Worldwide cases of confirmed coronavirus surpassed 328,000, and there were more than 14,450 deaths.

People can take as much precautions as possible by staying home, washing hands, eat hygienic food, doing some exercise etc. There is no drug, no vaccines as of now to mitigate the risk. Financial stimulus is being worked by Congress and Federal Reserve. The task force for Coronavirus is working day and night. The hospitals and doctors are almost working round the clock. What else can they do? Agreed that Trump Administration should have been more proactive after learning the lessons from China but those are all past. We must take precautions and look forward! Moderna (MRNA) has already started the vaccine trial, Inovio Pharmaceutical (INO) is planning to start vaccine trial in April, Chloroquine is under trial, masks, respirators and ventilators are being built under war footing, Gilead medication is under testing in China, and numerous other developments are taking place. But we must remember that all these takes time. One thing I liked what president Trump said today about Chloroquine (medicine used for malaria – a disease seen mostly in East Coast of India), why do we test it for years in test tubes for years when thousands of people suffering and the medicine has worked since decades without much side effect (of course for malaria), but if we know it’s working then we should use it and possibly save lot of lives. The stimulus package failed to pass in the senate procedural vote today. However, it’s not a time to think republican or democratic because stimulus is the need of the hour for the country and that will impact the whole World.

Major Stock Market Performances in 2019

Indexes	52 week (% age change)	YTD % Change
DOW	-24.81%	-32.81%
S&P 500	-17.7%	-28.66%
NASDAQ	-9.99%	-23.33%
China Shanghai Index	-12.08%	-12.28%
India BSE Sensex	-21.61%	-27.48%
Japan Nikki	-23.13%	-29.72%
Hongkong Hang Seng	-23.49%	-22.58%

Source: Wall Street Journal

Sectorial Performances 1 Year (U.S Stocks)

IT	-2.93
Communication and Services	-12.05%
Utilities	-8.18%
Consumer Staples	-9.10%
Financials	-29.53%
Consumer Staple	-9.10%
Consumer Discretionary	-19.92%
Real Estate	-23.09%
Health Care	-14.51%
Industrials	-31.21%
Energy	-60.43%

Source: Fidelity.com

Now let me discuss about my current month’s inclusion to my Blog Portfolio.

Carnival Cruise (CCL)

Carnival Corporation is the largest  cruise line operator of U.S and the World which operates about 105 ships around the world. The company's ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, and many other brand names. It also provides vacations to various cruise destinations, owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches.

Carnival is the largest of the three publicly traded U.S. cruise operators. As we are aware, the coronavirus outbreak has hit hardest to the cruise and other travel and leisure-oriented industries such as airlines, hotels, and casinos etc. These industries have been devastated due to the outcome of the pandemic. So also, their stock prices have been decimated. Because it’s difficult to imagine how long the Coronavirus phenomena will continue. The longer it goes, the worst it becomes for the industry. But obviously it may not continue for years in my view.

Financials: Last year, the company reported $3.3 billion in operating profits though this profit will go to oblivion this year. However, the company may still be the best performer in the cruise industry. Though Carnival has the most debt ($11.3 billion) in the entire industry, the company has also most cash ($518 million) which is the best in the industry and its debt ratio stands at an industry low 3.3X.

This year CCL had a revenue of $20 billion, growing at 7.3%. However, those will become history now with the impact of Coronavirus. Last Thursday, 3/19, the company preannounced adjusted earnings of 22 cents a share, compared with 49 cents a share a year earlier. It added that the Coronavirus outbreak cost 23 cents a share, including canceled tickets. Excluding the impact of Coronavirus, it earned 45 cents a share. The analysts were expecting 0.47 to 0.51 per share. It can be noted that the company’s fiscal first quarter covers December,  January and February, which means that the company was partially hit by the pandemic. The company reported that it lost $1.14 a share versus a profit of 48 cents a share in the corresponding period previous year. The company also did put out a press release offering to have some of its ships turned into hospitals to help with the Coronavirus pandemic.

Credit: On Friday, 3/20, Carnival disclosed  that it was tapping a $3 billion credit facility for Carnival and other cruise operators— Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH). Without such credit facility the cruise industry is going to be bankrupted! However, it can also be noted that, these companies have large fixed costs which are inevitable, coincidently the cheap oil price could help the industry to save major cost because that’s one of the most important operating expense. Meanwhile, it’s also expected that Federal government will also provide some kind of assistance, possibly in the form of loan guarantees. Hopefully, we will know in next few days once $2 trillion stimulus being worked by Congress goes through.

Why do I like this stock?

• I know it could be a crazy decision to buy cruise line stock or even airline stock at this time. If the pandemic goes longer then some of these companies could be bankrupted. So, why still do I want to invest? Here are few of my thoughts:
• Today president Donald Trump declared on TV during his press briefing that he won’t allow the cruise industry to go bankrupt as they are generating huge employment and doing big business for the country.
• CCL is the biggest and topmost cruise line in the industry
• It has the debt of $11.52 billion but if we see the Debt to Equity ratio then it’s in a much better shape.
• It has total cash of $252.88 million which is better than many in the industry.
• The stock is currently trading at $12, which is about 80% down from its 52-week high of 56.92, one of the cheapest. It makes a good long-term investment.
• Once the Coronavirus pandemic is subsidized , we can expect to see some great deals on cruises and the stock may bounce back hard and fast. If that happens, we will see quick bounce on CCL stock as it’s the market leader. The major financial institutions, mutual funds, money managers will start accumulating and there can be quick bounce.

My Strategy

I would not put my money at once. I would look to buy in small quantities in a phased manner. The stock may go down further 30-40% also which I don’t know. I do not want to catch the falling knife but when there is blood on the street in this sector I want to take a calculated risk. In the past, we have always seen that the best return is possible when one can take some risk and buy at the worst time.

Risks

Not necessarily, cheaper is better. There is enormous amount of risk in buying the stock as we do not know how long this Coronavirus phenomenon is going to last. The stock may get hit further and there is high potential to go down. Risk averse investors should stay away but for the aggressive investors it may worth the risk for long term. And I am willing to take a calculated risk.

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (Last Updated on APRIL 8, 2020)

Equity	Suggest Price	Current Price	Suggest Date	% Change	My View (see disclaimer)
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
AAPL	51.63	229.24	1/25/13	344%	HOLD
FB	47	149.73	11/13/13	219%	Accumulate
MA	77.18	211.42	12/12/13	174%	HOLD
AMZN	311.73	1846.09	4/12/14	492%	HOLD
BABA	67.28	181.3	2/21/16	169%	Accumulate
BRK-B	206.96	170.06	3/18/18	-18%	SOLD
EDIT	36.53	19.08	5/28/18	-48%	HOLD
IQ	26.13	17.54	9/18/18	-33%	HOLD - Trimmed
SHOP	134.81	346.06	11/25/18	157%	HOLD
NFLX	297.57	332.83	1/6/19	12%	HOLD
AMRN	17.66	10.64	2/17/19	-40%	HOLD
CGC	20.16	11.83	12/10/19	-41%	HOLD
ACB	9	0.73	4/18/19	-92%	SOLD most position and removing from Blog Portfolio
SQ	64.66	38.09	5/26/19	-41%	HOLD
NBEV	4.66	1.13	6/30/19	-76%	SOLD on 4/8
GH	87.53	64.05	9/1/19	-27%	HOLD
SDC	8.74	4.1	1/1/20	-53%	HOLD
NIO	4.27	2.4	1/29/20	-44%	Accumulate
CCL	12	12	3/22/20	0%	NEW BUY - Accumulate
ETF
IHF	139.1	201.37	8/16/15	45%	HOLD
XLY	77.76	87.81	8/16/15	13%	SOLD
MUTUAL FUND
FBIOX	11.46	16.95	3/1/13	48%	HOLD - Trimmed
PRHSX	47.25	62.2	2/2/14	32%	SOLD
PRMTX	59.45	105.06	12/20/14	77%	HOLD - Trimmed
MCDFX	12.37	13.17	12/9/15	6%	SOLD
FSRPX	9.05	12.38	1/15/16	37%	HOLD - Trimmed
FBSOX	37.32	55.27	3/20/16	48%	HOLD - Trimmed
FSMEX	43.66	44.64	9/24/17	2%	HOLD - Trimmed
FOCPX	11.72	9.92	10/21/18	-15%	SOLD
Note: Dividends are not adjusted on the price.

Positions CLOSED since last Blog

Please refer to my blog portfolio.

That’s all for today. Wish you great investing! Stay tuned for my next blog. Thanks for your time. If you want to get alert on my investment action, then please subscribe to shesagroup_invest@googlegroups.com or you can also join my WhatsApp group, if interested.

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I write on my blog and avoid recommending any security that I do not own or follow. Anybody buying or selling the equities mentioned here would do it on their own risk.

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