Shesa's JULY 2026 Investment Blog

                                                                                    By Shesa Nayak

Welcome to Shesa’s investment Blog! 

U.S Stock Market Update

After spectacular two months, the month of June delivered a mixed but constructive month for U.S. stocks, characterized by volatility, sector rotation, and continued strength in the broader market. After a powerful spring rally, the market consolidated with signs of healthier breadth as leadership broadened beyond mega-cap technology names. Many individual technology stocks, especially in semiconductors experienced sharp sell-offs last week despite the fact that Nasdaq went up. The rotation to non-tech stocks continued. Many tech stocks who came with spectacular earnings but they have been hammered. There is no fundamental change but same old Wall Street story - fear about AI spending, debts, questions about their future profits and so on. The Geopolitical easing around U.S. - Iran developments, brought down the oil prices lower and reduced some inflationary pressures. The crude oil came below $70 and that’s anti-inflationary. This is one of the reason, why we saw the rotation out of tech stocks. The month of June also saw one of the biggest IPO in the history of stock market i.e. SpaceX.

For the month of June, S&P 500 declined -0.7%, Nasdaq -2.7% and Dow gained 0.8%. The small cap index - Russell 2000 gained around 3.7%.

Economic & FED

• Mixed economic signals, including jobs data and inflation readings, alongside expectations for a steadier interest rate environment under new Fed leadership of Kevin Warsh who chaired his first FOMC meeting last month.
• The Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by 57,000 for the month, much slower than Wall Street expectations of 115,000. The unemployment rate, dropped to 4.2%. But the working-age population either employed or looking for a job slid to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. That’s the reason we saw the unemployment rate come down. Excluding the Covid-era jobs market, it was the lowest labor force participation rate in exactly 50 years. ADP reported that the private sector employment grew by 98,000 for the month, down from 122,000 in May and a bit below the forecast for 110,000.

Earnings: The Q1 earnings are over and we saw one of the biggest earnings season with stunning 28% growth. The Q2 earnings season starts from next week with Banks kicking-off earnings on July 14 and then Netflix, Tesla, followed by all other big tech earnings. 

Now we are in July and market is seeing some rotations so what can we expect? I will share my thoughts but first let’s take a look to the stock market indexes. 

Indexes	Close FRI 12/31/25	Close FRI 5/29/26	Change in 2026	% Change in 2026
DOW	48,063.99	52,900.07	4,836.08	10.06
S&P 500	6,845.5	7483.24	637.74	9.32
NASDAQ	23,241.99	25,832.67	2,590.68	11.15
Russel 2000	2,481.91	2,996.11	514.20	20.72
SOX (Semi)	8,083.13	12,626.22	4,543.09	56.20

Earnings Update

• For Q1, the S&P 500 has a record-breaking season with an earnings growth of about 28%. 
• For Q2 (current quarter), S&P 500 companies are expected to report year-over-year growth in earnings of 23.3% and revenues of 12.2%.
• For Q3 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 26.8% and revenue growth of 10.8%.
• For Q4 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 24.4% and revenue growth of 10.4%.

Economic

• CPI/Inflation: 4.2% 
• GDP Growth: 2.1% (Q1), Yearly growth: 2.7%
• Non Farm Payrolls: 570,00 vs. 115,000 expected
• Unemployment at 4.2% 
• Interest Rate: 3.75%
• Retail Sales (April): 0.9%

Key Economic Report 

Nothing important. But we will see a few key reports week after this.

• Tuesday, 7/14: Consumer price index (Inflation)
• Wednesday, 7/15: Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Thursday, 7/16: U.S. Retail Sales
• Friday, 7/7: Consumer sentiment

What to Expect going forward - The bigger picture

We are half way into the year and the stock market seems to be good so far. The analysts are expecting moderate additional gains driven primarily by strong corporate earnings growth, AI-related investments, and a resilient economy. However, the elevated risks due to inflation, economic developments or negativity noise about AI spending could lead to volatility or pullbacks. 

Positives:

• Earnings Growth: As you can see above, the earrings growth is expected to be robust, around 20-25% for the full year, fueled by technology/AI productivity gains, margin expansion, and broad corporate resilience. This is seen as the primary support for higher stock prices. 

• Continued AI spending boom (data centers, infrastructure, and adoption) by major companies

• Resilient U.S. economy and reasonably stable labor market, with productivity improvements helping offset inflation

• Potential for market breadth to improve as rotation into small-caps, value, and cyclical sectors continues

• Strong first-half momentum providing a solid base going into 2nd half of the year

Key Risks and Headwinds

• Inflation and Interest Rates: Persistent or re-accelerating inflation could keep the Fed on hold or lead to higher rates, pressuring valuations.

• Geopolitical Tensions: Any escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere could spike energy prices and risk aversion.

• Valuations: The market trades at elevated multiples; concentrated gains in a few sectors leave room for corrections if earnings disappoint.

• Consumer and Economic Slowdown: Signs of fatigue in spending or labor data could weigh on market sentiment.

What about Technology stocks and Rotations?

We keep seeing the rotations out of technology stocks now and then. The Wall Street will continue to do that. But some of the technology stocks came with explosive earnings. Still the Wall Street is not convinced and they keep beating the same old drum time and again. But those stocks which came with great earnings are the ones who should do well in the long run. For example, the earnings from Micron (MU) was phenomenal and this stock trades at future earnings of just 7 times which seems like a bargain. But Wall Street keeps saying memory is cyclical. Well, it was true but it’s no more cyclical rather it’s a structural shift because of AI explosion. Many times Wall Street is totally unpredictable. But unfortunately we can’t do anything, but adapt to the situation by doing our due diligence. There is no point cribbing about it. Some of the stocks had run too much so it seems like some consolidation taking place. Some tech stocks have been hammered in last few days and I won’t be surprised to see a violent rally. Having said that, we don’t know the future and who knows if they keep beating it further down to buy cheap un future. So, it’s better to be watchful.

The stocks are expected to go up before the end of the year. However, mid-term election is coming, so there may be elevated volatility. Returns are likely to be more modest than the strong first half, with greater emphasis on company-specific and sector-specific performance rather than broad index performance. The stocks that are supported by strong earnings and fundamentals should logically do well. The markets are inherently uncertain and factors can shift quickly with new data. While no one can predict the future with certainty, the consensus leans toward continued growth tempered by caution.

Stock Market TOP sectors for 2026 (as of 7/5/26)

Sector	Performance Year-To-Date %
Industrials (TOP)	18.57
Energy	18.33
Information Technology	15.53
Materials	13.77
Real Estate	11.30
Healthcare	5.88
Consumer Discretionary (WORST)	-1.10

You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:

Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd

Stocks to watch

Other stocks to watch: MU, TSLA, NVDA, NBIS, SPCX, GLW, MRVL, APLD, SOXL, IONQ, AMD, GOOG, FCEL, AAPL, NOK

Note: The above are not recommendations to buy/sell.

Now let me discuss the stock for this month in my blog portfolio.

Intel Corporation (INTC) 

Intel manufactures CPUs, GPUs, and data center chips while expanding into contract manufacturing to build semiconductors for other tech companies and located in Santa Clara, CA, USA. It has three key businesses:

• Client Computing Group (CCG): Develops microprocessors for desktop PCs, laptops, and tablets. 
• Data Center & AI (DCAI): Designs server hardware and artificial intelligence accelerators to power enterprise and cloud infrastructure. 
• Intel Foundry: Focuses on manufacturing chips and providing advanced packaging services for external clients, aiming to diversify global supply chains

Why Do I like Intel?

A couple of years ago, I had added intel to my blog portfolio. However, the stock kept going down and down made me to sell and remove from the portfolio. However, the Trump administration invested $1.1 billion with about 10% ownership giving the company the life support and resulting in one of the most dramatic stock recoveries in the semiconductor sector. After years of lagging behind rivals in technology and market share, the company is executing a multi-year turnaround that is finally resonating with investors and analysts. The stock has surged hundreds of percent year-to-date, reflecting renewed confidence in its AI ambitions, manufacturing roadmap, and core CPU businesses.

• AI and Data Center Momentum: Intel is positioning itself strongly in the shift toward CPU-based AI inference workloads. As hyperscalers and enterprises look beyond pure GPU acceleration for certain tasks, Intel’s Xeon processors and Gaudi accelerators are gaining relevance. It’s seeing potential acceleration in server CPU revenue as the market evolves.
• Foundry Business: It has foundry customers like federal government, Tesla, Amazon, Google, Microsoft etc. While early ramps involve costs and yield challenges, management and supporters see this as a foundation for long-term competitive advantage and margin recovery.
• Client (PC) Recovery: Traditional PC demand remains a significant revenue base. Intel benefits from enterprise refresh cycles, new AI PCs, and partnerships that integrate its chips into next-generation laptops and desktops.

Financials 

In last Quarter (Q1), it significantly outperformed Wall Street expectations. 

• Revenue: $13.58 billion vs. $12.32 billion estimated
• EPS was $0.29 vs. $0.01 per share estimated
• Data Center and AI: Brought in $5.05 billion, beating the $4.41 billion expected by analysts

The revenue and earnings are expected to accelerate in the coming quarters. Earnings are projected to expand sharply. Some analysts forecasts triple-digit percentage EPS growth in 2026 as losses narrow and profitability goes up.

Strategy

Honestly, Intel trades at elevated near-term multiples due to its rapid stock price appreciation after Trump administration took about 10% ownership. However, the forward-looking models may become reasonable as earnings catch up. Usually, when a company turnarounds, initially it shows over valued based on its fundamentals and that’s what is exactly happening for Intel. Currently, the stock is trading at $120.35. The stock had gone up to $142.35 but pulled back around 13%. I would like to keep slowly accumulating but won’t be in a hurry since there is potential to go further down. Analyst price targets vary widely, with optimistic targets reaching $160 - $200 but I don’t emphasize much on analysts estimates. There may be some pullbacks but that would be opportunity to accumulate for long term. There may be noise from Wall Street but AI growth and momentum is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

Risks

We have to see how Intel would be able to execute in future. It has tough competition with Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and others. If it fails to execute then stock may fall hard. Investors have high expectations and not able to beat that expectations would be detrimental for the stock. Furthermore, if market tanks or AI stocks are beaten down thenIntel won’t be spared. 

My final thoughts

Intel is still one of the largest semiconductor companies by revenue, government support for U.S. manufacturing, and direct exposure to multiple AI layers (inference, CPUs, foundry).

Right now, we are seeing exceptional AI momentum and INTC is one of the great rebound story of 2026. The last quester results proved it. With federal funding, it has got its life back and AI momentum is on its side. Though the stock has become expensive, I feel its future profit should subside the valuation. With that said, if I see any red flag or the company fails to deliver then I do not hesitate to pull the trigger and get out. 

Note: This is not a recommendation to buy the stock rather my opinion and every investor must do their due diligence. 

Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of July 5, 2026)

Equity	Suggested Price	Current Price	Suggested Date	% Change	My View  (see disclaimer)
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
AAPL	12.9	308.63	1/25/13	2292%	Buy on Dip below $300
META	47	582.90	11/13/13	1140%	HOLD
MA	77.18	539.39	12/12/13	599%	HOLD
AMZN	15.58	242.67	4/12/14	1458%	HOLD
SHOP	13.48	119.46	204.91	786%	HOLD
SPG	54.59	226.06	5/25/20	314%	HOLD
NVDA	23.9	194.83	2/13/22	715%	Buy on Dip
TSLA	290.25	393.45	5/1/22	36%	Accumulate - Long term
RKT	14.24	14.51	7/6/25	2%	SOLD
SOXL	15.66	181.47	4/6/23	1059%	Accumulate slowly
GOOG	123.25	356.18	5/21/23	189%	Buy on Dip
PLTR	20.49	129.3	11/19/23	531%	HOLD
Z	51.92	35	8/11/24	-33%	SOLD
LRCX	76.16	351.41	11/11/24	361%	Buy on Dip
RXRX	5.32	3.8	1/2/25	-29%	Accumulate
IONQ	37.46	49.12	2/18/25	31%	Accumulate
AVGO	203.64	360.45	4/5/25	77%	HOLD
APLD	11.18	33.06	6/15/25	196%	Accumulate slowly
HOOD	94.4	112.73	7/6/25	19%	HOLD
NBIS	65.47	215.62	9/7/25	229%	Buy on Dip
AMD	214.16	517.82	1/1/26	142%	HOLD
GLD	455.46	417.12	2/8/26	-8%	SOLD
SLV	85.27	55.02	3/1/26	-35%	I may SELL
UVIX	288	61.96	3/29/26	-78%	Reverse Split - Will sell Monday
VTV	196.99	219.17	4/4/26	11%	HOLD
MU	542.21	975.86	5/3/26	80%	Accumulate
DELL	420.91	394.32	5/31/26	-6%	Accumulate
INTC	120.35	120.35	7/5/26	0%	NEW ADDITION
MUTUAL FUND
PRMTX	59.45	130.29	12/20/14	119%	HOLD
FSRPX	9.05	17.40	1/15/16	92%	HOLD

Equity Sold since my Last Blog

RKT

GLD

Zillow (Z)

Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.

Note: Click on Blog archives to read all my Blogs and updates.