Weekend Stock Market Report - 4|14|24

How did last week go?

Friday, 4/13: Market got crushed due to the following factors:

First, Geopolitical concern on the news that Iran plans to directly attack Israel and that came true. On Saturday, we saw that Iran fired over 200 drones and missiles were fired by Iran and its allies to Israel. We will know on Monday morning whether Wall Street expected such big attack or further pullback in the stocks. Probably we may see the market opens in red. Also, another factor is to see how the oil prices move because it’s directly correlated to Inflation. Today Israel did not attack Iran so I do not see a major risk. Futures are doing OK. We will see how it goes tomorrow. 


Second, investors were not impressed by Banks earnings.  All the banks JPM, WFC and Citi beat revenue and profits expectations. However, Wall Street was not impressed with their guidances.


Third, continued inflation concern (nothing changed here from previous day..it’s another excuse by WS).


On Wednesday,  Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in the month of March and 3.5% compared to last year, exceeding the Wall Street expectations of 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. This rise in inflation dampens the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut in June. The probability of a rate reduction in the Fed's June meeting has dropped to only about 20, with market predictions now leaning toward a cut in September. The market overreacted to the CPI report. My exception is FED may cut in July or September. The future economic reports will determine. The 5 years and 10 years Treasury yields, a barometer for mortgage and loan rates, surged past 4.5%. 


On Thursday, Nasdaq and S&P roared back as PPI report came below Wall Street expectations. This eased inflation and rate-cut expectations fears. 


What to expect going forward?

  • On Monday and for next few days Wall Street will be watchful on the new Geopolitical situation on Iran and Israel and to what extent U.S will get involved.
  • I am anticipating good earnings this week from Netflix (NFLX) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Tech Earnings will be the key

We are entering to the first quarter earnings season of 2024. My focus will be the earnings of major tech companies and some others which exist in my blog portfolio. Despite the fear of inflation numbers, I am anticipating that the big tech companies should release solid earnings and that should keep the market moving for next 2-3 weeks unless Geopolitical situation takes a major turn. Which major tech companies are expected to release better results? I will write next week.


Earnings this week

4/15: GS

4/16: BAC, MS, JNJ, UNH

4/17: NFLX, TSM


Stock to watch this week

NFLX, META, NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, ADBE, TSLA, ASML, Oil stocks. 

Note: I do not have Oil stocks.


Key economic Report this week

MON, 4|15: Retail Sales for March (This may be market moving)

TUE, 4|16: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks @10.15am PST

THU, 4|18: Existing Home Sales


In addition, a lot of other FED speakers are expected to speak this week.


SOLD INTEL: Visualizing its current financials, market sentiment and stock performance, this is dead stock for foreseeable future hence got out of this. I will remove from my Blog Portfolio. Please note I told last week that I trimmed and may sell. This is the position I closed in a few months. My analysis that it’s in a good position to take growth in AI was wrong. If there will be positive development then I can think later. 

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