Stock Market Update - 11|5|23

Interest Rate

On Wednesday, 11/1, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged as expected. Currently, interest rathe stands between 5.25%-5.5%, where it has been since July. My view has not changed, worst can one more hike in December but most probably no more hikes.  After this decision stock market bounced back! It may not be straight up but we may see further rallies to the end of the year.


Job Report

On Friday, 11/3, the labor department said payrolls increased by 150,000 for the October, against the forecast  of 170,000. Please note that it was a sharp decline from the gain of 297,000 in September. Unemployment rate stands at 3.9%.


ADP private payroll report

Companies added 113,000 workers last month, lower than the 130,000 anticipated by economists.


Job Openings

According to the labor department, Employers posted 9.6 million job openings in September, up from 9.5 million in August.  These numbers are from the are published late hence we may not emphasize too much.


Q3 Earnings

Apple (AAPL)

Beat on top and bottom line.

EPS: $1.46 vs. $1.39 per share expected.

Revenue: $89.50 billion vs. $89.28 billion expected.

iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion, versus $43.81 billion expected.

My view: Sales for the year is down about 3% comparing to last year. Sales have been trending down for last four quarters. Apple didn’t give formal guidance but the executives signaled that company may not return to growth in the holiday quarter bringing its share down on Friday. On the positive side, service revenue and gross margins have been growing despite many headwinds. Overall, I am not too optimistic. In short term, the stock may remain in a trading range. 


Shopify (SHOP)

Beats top and bottom line.

Revenue: $1.71 billion, up about 25% year-over-year and beating the $1.68 billion.

EPS: 0.24 vs. 0.15.


Redfin (RDFN)

Revenue was $269.0 million, a decrease of 12% compared to Q3 2022.

Gross profit increased by 8% YoY to $98.3 million.

Net loss was $19.0 million, huge improvement from a net loss of $90.2 million in Q3 2022.


Carvana (CVNA) 

The company came with earnings of $3.60 per share vs. expectations for a loss. This was a significant turnaround boosted by a gain on debt extinguishment from a corporate debt exchange.

Revenue came in at $2.773 billion, down 17% YOY. 

Total gross profit increased by 34% year-over-year, reaching $482 million.


Airbnb (ABNB) 

EPS: $6.63 per share vs. 2.11 expected.

Revenue: $3.4 billion vs.  $3.37 billion expected. 

For the current fourth quarter, Airbnb projected sales of $2.15 billion. Analysts were expecting $2.18 billion


STEM Inc. (STEM)

Revenue  $133.7 million.

Loss is $77.1 million vs. 34.3 a year ago.

Bookings: $676 million, up 203% from a year ago.

Record backlog of $1.84 billion.

My View: This company is going through rough time. The share price will likely improve only after the company improves its bottom line. The company is focussing more on its AI software rather than Hardware selling. Hopefully, we may see turnaround next year. 


No major economic reports this week except the fact that many Fed speakers including chairman J Powell will be seeking. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular Post

Shesa's JUN 2025 Investment Blog

By Shesa Nayak U.S. Stock Market Update   The U.S. stock market had an incredible month of May. The S&P 500 added more than 5% in May, while Nasdaq was the star performer blasting 9.5% . Most of the gains were driven by tech and AI stocks. Despite tariff concerns, strong corporate earnings (about 12.5% Q1 growth) and a stable labor market supported stock market optimism. After a  marathon run in May, the U.S. stock market in June has shown resilience amid trade tensions, economic uncertainties and high intensity of Geopolitical tensions .  Israel, Iran War : Israel bombarded Iran and killed many of their senior leaders and Iran retaliated. The war intensified over the weekend between both nations. Israel has also attacked some of the oil fields. Wall Street was jittered last Friday due to the war. The reason is, if both these countries continue to battle then it may impact oil supply and oil prices would go up. Lat Friday, crude oil jumped around 10%. The worry ...
Read more

U.S Stock Market Weekend Update - 5|31|25

The month of May ended with a spectacular market performance. The S&P 500 added more than 5% this month, while the Nasdaq rocketed 9.5% in that time. Both are on track to notch their best months since November 2023. The Dow Jones gained 3% on the month. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.5%, while the 30-stock Dow is up 1% and  Nasdaq went up 1.9%. The biggest ever was another great earnings report. I will write about it later. On the economic front, the Consumer Confidence Index for May 27, 2025, rose to 98.0 from 85.7 in April. This is the highest ever increase of consumer confidence in a single month . The Federal reserve - FOMC minutes  from May 7, FOMC that showed a cautious approach due to increased economic uncertainty. Officials noted solid economic growth and labor market but highlighted rising risks of higher inflation and unemployment, partly due to tariff uncertainties. The last three months inflation has been receding but FED is...
Read more

Shesa's Weekend Update - 6|29|25

We saw a fantastic week for the stock market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on June 27 , 2025, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,173, up 3.32% for the week, and the Nasdaq closed at 20273.46, up 4.36% . The Dow gained 2.6%. Stocks rallied due to easing Middle East tensions, trade deal optimism with China (Trump said deal was signed - framework), and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.  There were  211 new small-cap stocks added to the Russell 2000 Index on June 27, 2025 which will start trading in Russell index starting tomorrow, Jun 30.  A glance to the Economic Report last week The Manufacturing PMI index came at 52 vs.51 expected. The Services PMI came at 53.1 vs. 53 expected. All comfortably above 50, signaling ongoing expansion in U.S. economic activity. The economy remains on solid footing. The Consumer Confidence Index for June 2025 was released on Tuesday, June 24, 2025. It dropped to 93.0 from 98.4 in May, below the expected 99.4.  Per...
Read more