Is Amarin Corp (AMRN) poised for a bounce?

Amarin presented final results of the EVAPORATE Trial at European Society of Cardiology Congress annual meeting on August 29, 2020. The VASCEPA® (Icosapent Ethyl) reported to significantly reduce Coronary Plaque by 17%. The plaque causes coronary arteries to narrow, limiting blood flow to the heart causing heart failure, death and so on. This is a new discovery for which the company was doing the trials for last 18 months. My blog reader may recall that, I had written the following in my February 2019 blog. 

Amarin's drug "VASCEPA" had these wonderful results:

  • Cardiovascular Death Reduced by 20%
  • Fatal or Nonfatal Heart Attacks Reduced by 31%
  • Fatal or Nonfatal Stroke Reduced by 28%
  • Urgent or Emergent Coronary Revascularization Reduced by 35%

Actually the science behind this drug has produced outstanding results. Based on this, I had added it as one of may favorite stock for 2020. However, so far it has been a disappointment due to AMRN's court battle with generics. The share price has been depressed. I hope this result could be the turning point. Going forward there are a few catalysts I would like to wait:
  • Amarin's appeal in higher court starts from September 2nd. Though, Amarin has a strong case still it is difficult predict anything visualizing the past experiences.
  • Q3 Results and prescription growth should get better. The company is still growing its revenue almost at 100%.
  • European Approval of VASCEPA - expected in Q4 2020/Q1 2021
  • VASCEPA study result from China - expected NOV/DEC 2020.
My View: If the court case is won/settled then the company could potentially be bought by any major pharmaceutical company at any time. But I do not invest in any company thinking that it will be bought. Though, I had reduced my position in AMRN, I have added back and hold some long term call options as well. I still believe that Amarin would prevail in the long run, even if they lose court battle. It has been very disappointing thus far but I am hoping this could be a turning point!! I am not a fortune teller, rather do my own analysis with available facts. So I could go wrong! Hence, caution is warranted for all the blog readers. Forgot to mention one thing earlier, in case AMRN wins the court battle then I will not be surprised if the stock gets double or triple from here in next 12-18 months. 

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy/sell the stock. It's purely my own opinion by doing my due diligence. I may go right/wrong. 

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