Shesa's June - July 2020 Investment Blog
June - July 2020 - INVESTMENT BLOG
By Shesa Nayak
WELCOME to my June - July Investment blog!
U.S. Stock Market Update
After the collapse of stock market on 23rd March, all indexes have bounced back significantly and recouped most of their losses. Some indexes have already gone to the positive territories for the year. The stock markets have been rising with the belief that Fed will simply throw trillions of dollars at the economy, flat-out preventing stocks from crashing, headlines that investors are sitting on the biggest “pile of cash ever" according to the Wall Street Journal. Even more-seasoned investors getting lured into questionable stocks, which historically doesn't end well. I will describe that the stock market comeback has nothing but monumental! Having said that, we have still not seen the level of exuberance that we saw during dot-com boom.
Recently, more than 40 million Americans have applied for unemployment insurance and U.S. economy has dipped into a recession. Despite that, such phenomenal comeback of stock market has scared many investors pushing them to the sidelines or piling cash for safety and further looking for opportunity to re-invest when market pulls back. There are traders who have been trading like crazy on a group of stocks in certain sectors. COVID-19 has been a medical problem causing economy disasters but it also provided opportunities for many traders/investors to generate exceptional return on equity (ROE). Moreover, we are approaching second-quarter earnings in a couple of weeks, which will provide a much-needed glimpse into the health of corporate America. The earnings are not anticipated to be great but future guidance of the corporate sector will be of paramount importance. The question that comes to mind “has the market hit the top and running out of gas?” Or there is further scope for it to run further high?. This month, I am going to discuss some of the equities with great future potential for the interest of blog readers. Before I go further, let’s first take a look to U.S. stock market indexes.
| Indexes | 1/2/20 | Close FRI (6/19/20) | Change in 2020 | % Change in 2020 | All Time High | From All Time High | % from All Time High |
| DOW | 28,538.44 | 25,015.55 | -3,522.89 | -12.34 | 29,568.57 | -4,553.02 | -15.40% |
| S&P 500 | 3,230.78 | 3,009.05 | -221.73 | -6.86 | 3,393.52 | -384.47 | -11.33% |
| NASDAQ | 8,972.60 | 9,757.22 | 784.62 | 8.74 | 10,221.85 | -464.63 | -4.55% |
| BTK | 5,067.45 | 5,711.22 | 643.77 | 12.70 | 5936.43 | -225.21 | -3.79% |
| NBI | 3,786.54 | 4,242.76 | 456.22 | 12.05 | 4413.24 | -170.48 | -3.86% |
Major Economy News
Q2 2020 Earnings Growth: The earnings decline for the S&P 500 is projected to be -43.8%. This is expected to be the largest year-over-year earnings decline since Q4 2008 when S&P 500 companies reported -69.1% earnings decline.
Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.9) and much above the 10-year average (15.2). So, the stock market has obviously become expensive due to lower corporate earnings impacted by the pandemic.
Unemployment: 13.3% down from 14.7%. The total numbers have surpassed 40 million
Housing starts: Plunged to 891,000 vs. 927,000 expected in April.
GDP Growth: -5% quarter over quarter and 0.3% year over year.
Interest Rate: 0.25%
Inflation rate: 0.1%
Coronavirus Cases in U.S: 2.56 million cases, 127,000 deaths reported as of 6|26|207
Housing starts: Plunged to 891,000 vs. 927,000 expected in April.
GDP Growth: -5% quarter over quarter and 0.3% year over year.
Interest Rate: 0.25%
Inflation rate: 0.1%
Coronavirus Cases in U.S: 2.56 million cases, 127,000 deaths reported as of 6|26|207
Stock Market keeps going up and up? Can it sustain after such big rally?
Stock markets have been going up almost un-interrupted since the March 23rd when all the stock indexes plunged to the lowest of the year. However, the market still keeps going up in a bad economy. But the big question that comes to mind “is such a parabolic move sustainable going forward?”?. As I said on my opening summary, “the stock market has been rising with the belief that Fed will simply throw trillions of dollars at the economy, flat-out preventing stocks from crashing. But let’s see what the factors are contributing to this rally. First let me talk about the negatives surrounding the stock market.
Negatives for Stock Market.
- Last quarter GDP growth was -5% and in the next quarter (Q2) it’s expected to go down -17%
- COVID-19 cases have been surging almost in every state and risk is rising all along.
- There are more than 40 million American unemployed and current unemployment rate stands at 13.3%, this is the highest on record caused by Coronavirus pandemic. As we know, employment drives most part of the economy because when people are employed and get money it creates buying power, consumer spending goes up, they buy more goods and services, the corporate generates more revenues, profits and overall economy prosper. But that’s not the case right now.
- Q2FY20 earnings are expected to decline at -43.8% according FactSet.
- There is still significant uncertainty regarding the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, especially for small businesses. Officially we are in a recession.
- Stock market has become expensive as S&P 500 is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 times which is closer to 1999 .com boom.
But it seems stock market does not care!! Now let me discuss about the positives for the market.
Positives for Stock Market
- Retail sales rose 17.7% from April to May crushing analyst estimate of 8%. Please note that retail sales were down 16.4% in April.
- As reported that congress is considering a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan. In my view, most of the money would go to infrastructure projects like roads and bridges, 5G wireless rural broadband etc.
- A couple of weeks ago the Fed governor J Powell said that the central bank would start buying individual corporate bonds on top of the exchange-traded funds it’s already purchasing. However, Powell also said in a testimony that he didn't want to "run through the bond market like an elephant."
- There are expectations that COVID-19 vaccines will be available around the end of the year. Though no vaccine manufacturer has come out with any phase2 results!
- Earnings: Q3, Q4, 2021: Things will start getting better in future quarters as we go, and 2021 may become better from economy perspective, but may not necessarily be great for stock market.
With all these negatives the stock market has zoomed like a V shape economy recovery. Almost all indexes are up 35-40% since their low on March 23rd. Nasdaq and Biotech indexes are sitting near their all-time high.
Is the party over for the stock market?
Nope, I do not think party is over as yet! There is still lot of fuel left to ignite the stock market further up. Why do I think so?
Market has been overvalued does not mean it won’t go further. There are few key components to it. I have already written about the government and Fed stimulus. Please note that this is “election year” and the republican will take every action to win the election. As I have said many times, president Trump’s main performance metrics is Economy and Stock Market. Economy is tanking now but stock market is still booming. Slowly and gradually, we will also see the economy recover in Q3, Q4 and further.
Usually, the market tops when people are too optimistic, bullish and greedy and start chasing stock. People keep saying buy this stock, buy that stock, this will be $100, $500, $1000 and so on. That’s the “irrational exuberance”. That’s the time to be on the sideline. There’s a great deal of data suggesting that investor sentiment is not this bullish on a larger scale. In other words, we have not reached to that level of optimism, though there are news that traders are chasing certain sectors and making/losing lot of money. If we have to be a better investor (not trader) then we must be diligent in our action irrespective of who says what!
According to a recently conducted survey by Bank of America, about 78% of money managers believed the stock market is overpriced, this is highest since the survey started in 1998, and it exceeds the reading recorded during the dot-com bubble burst. Also, a mere 37% believe it's the real bull market and 53% believe it’s is a bear market rally.
Many folks, whether it’s retail investors, money managers or institutional investors feels that this rally is overdone. Hence, they have parked the money in money market accounts. According to data from Refinitiv Lipper, the money market funds ballooned to about $4.6 trillion which is the highest level on record. In addition, according to the survey conducted by Deutsche Bank, overall stock positioning among investors remains at the lowest levels of the past decade. So, one could wonder, where did the rally come from? Well, in my view the stimulus along with some participation from the investors were key to the upliftment of stock market. The sectorial bump of stock prices has also contributed by traders and day-traders.
As we know the market is driven mostly by emotions: Greed and Fear. Greedy to keep thinking it will still go up and not taking any profit and fear is to either miss the rally or fear of losing money. Having so much money in money market accounts points to the fear aspect of it. Also, there is a fear that stocks have gone too far, too fast, I probably agree on this. It has made many investors nervous and keeping them on the sideline. They are waiting for the buying opportunities to deploy their cash whenever there is a market pull back. What it means is that, there are still tons of cash outside stock market waiting for the opportunity. In other words, a lot of money is still not invested. When a bull market tops, most of the investors are fully invested, they are highly bullish, very confident about the market and large number of folks become very adventures to take abundant risk. The question is, have we reached to that stage? NO, I do not think we are there yet -or- we will be there in the near term.
My final thoughts: The market has run too far too fast, there is no doubt in my mind. With all this euphoria, I will be cautious and having my strategy of profit taking, heading and be prepared to change my strategy quickly, if needed. Having said that, the irrational exuberance is still not there in the stock market as tons of money is still sitting on sidelines as many people are skeptic about today’s market. In my view, we may see some pull back around Q2 earnings timeframe, in next few weeks. But if that happens, that would be a good buying opportunity for long term investors. Q2 is expected to be the worst, but economy would start getting better from Q3, Q4 when we may see some vaccines, election, and so on. Moreover, economy should gain further momentum during in 2021 and we could see solid earnings. But I will revisit as we go. Though better economy is a key parameter for better stock market but it does not necessarily translate into great return on investment. If that’s always true then we would not be seeing stock market skyrocketing to new high within a span of two months during the worst economy crisis. So, let’s not run too fast to any conclusion from now. I do expect the market continue to be volatile. A word of caution, August and September may not be very favorable to the investors. Anyway, I will be providing my analysis as we go. But to answer, have we seen the market top yet? I don’t think so. We may have further rooms to grow in next few months but here will be volatility on the way..
Major Stock Market Performances in 2020
Indexes
|
52 weeks (% change)
|
YTD % (last blog)
|
YTD % Change
|
DOW
|
--5.96%
|
-14.27
|
-12.34%
|
S&P 500
|
2.29%
|
-8.52%
|
-6.86%
|
NASDAQ
|
28.40%
|
3.92%
|
12.78%
|
China Shanghai Index
|
0.11%
|
-7.61%
|
-2.31%
|
India BSE Sensex
|
-10.72%
|
-25.65%
|
-14.74%
|
Japan Nikki
|
5.81%
|
-12.32%
|
-4.84%
|
Hongkong Hang Seng
|
-14.23%
|
-18.78%
|
-12.91%
|
Source: Wall Street Journal
Sectorial Performances 1 Year % Change (U.S Stocks)
Sectors
|
Last Blog
|
As of Date
|
IT (Best sector YTD)
|
29.09%
|
32.07%
|
Health Care
|
12.48%
|
5.77%
|
Communication and Services
|
+9.40%
|
+6.66%
|
Consumer Discretionary
|
+6.97%
|
+9.23%
|
Utilities
|
-4.02%
|
-8.82%
|
Consumer Staples
|
-0.40%
|
-3.15%
|
Real Estate
|
-9.85%
|
-8.97%
|
Industrials
|
-15.3%
|
-13.07%
|
Financials
|
-19.19%
|
-16.33%
|
Energy
|
-38.99%
|
-40.03%
|
Source: Fidelity.com
Inside look to my Portfolio
A few days ago, I wrote about these stocks on my blog and promised that I will be providing more details of my portfolio holdings in my monthly blog. There are some equities that I have been accumulating over last few weeks/months. Some of them are on my blog portfolio and others are not. However, I am going an extra mile for the benefits of the blog readers. I warn that these are not recommendation to buy/sell these stocks, rather I am throwing some lights on what I am accumulating. In my view, these companies have great potential in weeks/months/year ahead. Having said that, it does not mean that I am not going to sell these stocks if situations changed.
INO: COVID-19 vaccine manufacturer using DNA technology for its drugs and vaccines. The main advantage of DNA vaccines is their ability to stimulate both humoral and cellular arms of the adaptive immune system. It also has minimal side effects. The vaccines do not need any refrigerator to cool and easy to transport. The vaccine is in phase1 trial and expected to enter to the phase2/3 clinical trials, if the phase1 results are successful. The stock is already on fire and went up more than 100% in last couple of weeks. This week is going to be very crucial as it expects to release phase1 trial results and possible funding from government. If things go well, it could rocket but in case of a failure it could come below $10. I am expecting higher probability of success. But future is uncertain, so let’s wait and see..
NIO: China EV manufacturer is on a roll; stock is up more than 100% in last 3 months but it still has great long term potential. There are many catalysts for this stock. It has been producing and selling huge number of electric cars in China. There were many analysts upgrades in last few weeks. Institutions have been accumulating NIO shares. The month of June production is expected to be of record numbers. NIO won "The Best of the Best" Award from Germany. It ranked number one outperforming many other leading brands, including German rivals during a fit and finish contest. It got about $1.4 billion funding from local government. Overall, I think this company has a tremendous future potential for the patient investors.
CVM: Head and Neck cancer. This is the only drug expected after 50 years! The company has completed their multi-year trials when it reached 298th events (deaths) at the end of April 2020 based on the recommendations by IDMC. Now data locking seems to be in progress. I am expecting the results to be declared in next few weeks. If it goes well as expected then it would be a major breakthrough and stock could go significantly higher. High Risk – High Reward.
TGTX: Works on cancer drugs primarily on Leukemia and Multiple Sclerosis. The trial was stopped by IDMC due to solid results. However, the data has not been published yet! The company says that it will publish the result in a future medical conference. On 17 June, the company submitted rolling approval for first and second-line treatment for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia ("CLL"), opening up a market potentially worth more than $9bn. The company is also is progressing through phase 3 trials for MS for which results expected before the end of 2020. Medium risk but great potential.
GERN: Blood cancer related drugs (MF and MDS). Two phase 3 drugs on pipelines. The shares are trading at about $2. The Phase II results was excellent for their MF trials. There is a possibility that the MF drug could be approved by FDA for early treatment and may also be approved by EMEA. This may be a good long term investment for investors with patience and risk taking capabilities.
ZYNE: The pipeline has 4 exciting drugs in late stages trials. It uses cannabis for medication. The drug to treat Frgile X syndrome is in phase 3 clinical trials whose results are expected to be announced this week. This drug has more than more than $2B market potential. Fragile X is an orphan drug which means it gets a priority status for approval by the FDA and an extra 7 year patent protection for competing drugs. There are four such drugs on trial. Each with a $2 BILLION market or more. High Risk – High Reward.
APHA: Cannabis sector: One of the best companies in this sector, which has consistently been increasing revenue and profits for last few quarters. It had 96% revenue growth year over year. Cannabis have/had a terrible year but it has been a couple of months the shares started recovering as the sector reported better earnings. If I have to buy only one Cannabis stock than that would be APHA. Note: CGC is there on my blog portfolio but I have a reasonably good position in APHA.
AMRN: Cardiovascular drug: I have said and wrote a lot about this stock. Unfortunately, this stock is one of the laggards on my portfolio. It has tremendous potential but lawsuits have this stock dragged despite its huge revenue growth. We will start seeing some positive momentum on this stock in Q3 and going forward. The stock price does not reflect its huge potential. I am anticipating European approval of its cardiovascular drug Vascepa in Europe around Q4. Also, the Chinese Vascepa trial results is expected around that timeframe. This is a stock for patient long term investors.
I am invested on the aforesaid stocks by taking some calculated risk! These are HIGH RISKS - HIGH REWARDS stocks, so caution is warranted!!
Now let me discuss about my current month’s inclusion to my Blog Portfolio.
ENPHASE ENERGY INC (ENPH)
Enphase Energy designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter, which converts energy at the individual solar module level, and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control services. In addition, it offers AC battery storage systems; cloud-based monitoring service, and other accessories. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners, as well as directly to the homeowners. The company is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Many of us have installed solar panel. However, the main problem was that solar energy can’t be stored. However, the solution provided by Enphase provides solar microinverters that convert the DC power generated by a solar panel to AC power that can be fed into the electrical grid. The inverters operate independently to generate most energy possible, without a single point of failure, store the energy and provide a real-time, in-depth view of solar energy production and energy consumption, so customer can make informed decision about energy use like charging your electric car or other major power consumption. Hence, storage of solar power is extremely important. If we can’t store solar power than the extra power generated goes waste. For example, I have solar installed at my home which produces maximum electricity during summer. If I can’t consume those power than at the end of the year PG&E buys is at 5 cents Kilowatt hour but the same cost me 16 cents to produce. Meaning that extra production causes 11 cents loss to me. If there is a backup battery, some of that energy is harnessed and stored inside the battery, for later usage when solar panels aren’t producing power whether it’s at night or due to a power outage. At that time, solar system can shift utilizing power from the battery. Enphase has been a stellar performer in the solar sector because of its product but recently there was short seller attack on this stock.
Why stock got hammered a few days ago? A couple of weeks ago, short-seller Prescience Point Capital Management issued a damning report on ENPH, stating the company committed financial fraud dating back as 2017. The short seller noted that its indictment will result in a “sham turnaround story meeting its inevitable, dire fate.” It can be noted that this was not the first time this short seller attacked. The same company had done it earlier in 2018 when it accused ENPH of improper deferred revenue accounting. However, recent allegations sent ENPH stock down 26%. After going through the allegations, I wrote to my WhatsApp group that I am adding ENPH shares. The next day the company recovered almost 15-20% of its lost share price. Many analysts from the industry including JPMorgan defended the company. Moreover, it was not new to me as I have experienced similar short sellers attacks in so many companies. I do not want to get into the legal aspect of it, but if the company is good then it provides a good opportunity for long-term investors to buy/accumulate some shares. Because mostly the shares recover after some initial hiccups.
Infrastructure Stimulus bill
Last Monday, the House Democrats introduced a sweeping $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill that includes energy storage investment tax credit of 30% through 2025. Please note that the solar subsidies come to an end after 2021. The bill proposes investing more than $70 billion to transform the U.S. electric grid to accommodate more renewable energy, expand renewable energy deployment, strengthen infrastructure and help develop an electric vehicle charging network. This bill has to go to senate, if approved then signed by president to become a law. It may not happen so quickly but if signed into law, it will have a lasting positive impact on the solar and storage industries.
Why do I like ENPH?
As I said before, it’s a stellar performer in the solar sector. It does not provide solar panel which is so competitive rather it provides inverters, storage and complete end-end solution for solar power installation. Enphase’s latest generation are “smart” and offer advanced features like improved power conversion efficiency, system data for monitoring and tracking, and the ability to rapidly shut down a panel if needed. The company has also expanded into lucrative (and in-demand) solar inverter/battery storage packages. As a shareholder, I do not want to go too deep into the technological details rather the company have been performing remarkably increasing its revenue and profits. The company’s revenues increased by 97% in 2019 comparing to 2018, primarily due to an increase in the number of units shipped as well as increase in the average selling price per microinverter unit. It sold 6.2 million microinverter units in 2019, as compared to 2.8 million units in 2018. It has strong fundamentals. Let’s see..
Fundamentals
· Market Capitalization: $5.67 billion.
· Revenue: $729.73M.
· Trailing P/E: 26.6, Forward P/E: 43.86.
· Price to Sales: 8.55, Price to Book: 18.01.
· Quarterly Revenue Growth: 105.20%.
· Quarterly Earnings Growth: 2393%, EPS: 1.23.
· Total Cash: $549.14 Million, Total Debt: 410.27M
· Return on Equity (ROE): 137.63%
· Institutional Holding: 57.3%
· 52 Week High: $70.36, 52 Week Low: 16.9.
For last 3 years revenue and profits have been rising significantly. Here is the comparison of last two years (Year-over-Year comparison 2019 vs. 2018).
2019
|
2018
| |
Revenue
|
$624 million
|
$316M
|
Gross profit
|
$221.2M
|
$94.4M
|
Free Cash Flow
|
$124.3M
|
11.98M.
|
EPS
|
$1.23
|
-0.12
|
Current quarter (Q2)
|
Revenue: $120M
|
EPS of 0.13
|
Next Quarter (Q3)
|
Revenue: $155M
|
EPS of 0.25
|
Whole Year (2020)
|
Revenue: $711M
|
EPS of 0.33
|
Note: These are the latest estimates after considering COVID-19 impact during 2020.
My final thoughts
In 2019, renewable energy (Solar, wind etc.) accounted only about 11% of total U.S. energy consumption and about 17% of electricity generation. This indicate that there is astronomical opportunity for the green energy industry to grow. ENPH has already been growing its revenue and profits at a rapid pace. COVID-19 may have put a little dent in its revenue and earning but this company has tremendous growth potential. In case, the $70 billion green energy bill is passed then it would be an added bonus and this stock could explode. But please note that I am not investing based on that assumption. Currently, the stock is trading at $45.30, which is 36% discount to its 52-weeks high of $70.36. I am already invested in this stock and added more last week when it crashed 26% due to short-seller attack. I can keep accumulating if it comes down further. I am a growth investor and I believe this company has a tremendous growth prospect.
Risk: No stock is immune to stock market decline, particularly in such a volatile stock market. I will not be surprised to see the stock coming down another 15-20%, if the stock market tanks. This risk can be mitigated by gradual accumulation. If there is any real problem within the company as reported by the short seller than that could be a major risk. However, after doing my due diligence, I am comfortable investing in this company. If anytime the situation changes drastically then I will not hesitate to get rid of my portfolio, that’s true for any company in my portfolio. But at this time, I see ENPH as a great long term investment opportunity in technology/solar space.
Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of June 28, 2020)
Equity
|
Suggest Price
|
Current Price
|
Suggest Date
|
% Change
|
My View
(see disclaimer) |
STOCK (All prices are in USD)
| |||||
51.63
|
353.63
|
1/25/13
|
585%
|
HOLD
| |
47
|
216.08
|
11/13/13
|
360%
|
Buy on Dip
| |
77.18
|
289.34
|
12/12/13
|
275%
|
HOLD
| |
311.73
|
2692.87
|
4/12/14
|
764%
|
Buy on Dip
| |
67.28
|
205.71
|
2/21/16
|
206%
|
Buy on Dip
| |
36.53
|
28.92
|
5/28/18
|
-21%
|
HOLD
| |
134.81
|
910
|
11/25/18
|
575%
|
HOLD
| |
297.57
|
443.4
|
1/6/19
|
49%
|
HOLD
| |
17.66
|
6.7
|
2/17/19
|
-62%
|
HOLD
| |
20.16
|
15.95
|
12/10/19
|
-21%
|
HOLD
| |
87.53
|
80.65
|
9/1/19
|
-8%
|
HOLD
| |
8.74
|
7.5
|
1/1/20
|
-14%
|
HOLD
| |
4.27
|
6.9
|
1/29/20
|
62%
|
Accumulate
| |
12
|
15.78
|
3/22/20
|
32%
|
Accumulate
| |
76.91
|
141.68
|
4/19/20
|
84%
|
Buy on Dip
| |
54.59
|
61.9
|
5/25/20
|
13%
|
BUY
| |
45.3
|
45.3
|
6/28/20
|
0%
|
NEW ADDITION
| |
ETF
| |||||
139.1
|
186.9
|
8/16/15
|
34%
|
HOLD
| |
MUTUAL FUND
| |||||
11.46
|
23.73
|
3/1/13
|
107%
|
HOLD
| |
59.45
|
149.63
|
12/20/14
|
152%
|
HOLD
| |
9.05
|
18.18
|
1/15/16
|
101%
|
HOLD
| |
37.32
|
76.76
|
3/20/16
|
106%
|
HOLD
| |
43.66
|
59.4
|
9/24/17
|
36%
|
HOLD
| |
Note: Dividends are not adjusted on the price.
| |||||
Positions CLOSED since last Blog
None.
That’s all for today. Wish you great investing! Stay tuned for my next blog. Thanks for your time. If you want to get alert on my investment action, then please subscribe to shesagroup_invest@googlegroups.com or you can also join my WhatsApp group, if interested.
Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I write on my blog and avoid recommending any security that I do not own or follow. Anybody buying or selling the equities mentioned here would do it on their own risk.
Thanks Shesa
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