Shesa's DECEMBER 2014 INVESTMENT BLOG
21 December 2014
DECEMBER 2014
Investment Blog
Shesa
Nayak
U.S.
Stock Market Commentary
Hello and Welcome to my December (year-end) investment blog. Wishing all readers of this blog a very
happy Christmas.
The DOW Jones closed last
Friday at 17840.8,
S&P 500 closed at 2070.65 and
NASDAQ closed at 4765.38 points. Last
few weeks were very volatile but the stock market roared back last week. If you
were not invested then you could have lost some golden opportunities. DOW
pounded 708 points in 2 days. Is Santa Clause rally finally back on Wall
Street? Let’s see why did it happen.
What sparkled rally in Wall Street last
week? Last Thursday, the Dow Jones
industrial average jumped 421.28 points, or 2.4%, to close at 17,778.15, it was
best one-day point gain since November 30, 2011. Dow gained 708 points in two
days (Wed & Thu), it’s best two-day point gain since Nov. 2008. Similarly,
S&P 500 and NASDAQ zoomed about 4% on those 2 days. It seems the markets is
realizing that the low interest rates, low inflation, good earning and a
gradual economic recovery are in place for further momentum to 2015. The rally was sparked after the
fed statement in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where it was
indicated that “Fed is going to be patient in beginning to normalize the stance
of monetary policy” which is just similar to what they said earlier
"interest rates are going to remain near zero for the foreseeable
future". This brought optimism in
Wall Street that Fed would not be increasing interest rate till mid/late next
year.
In addition, there were other
positive news that provided momentum
- Consumer prices (CPI) posted their largest drop in six years and it stands about 1.7% well below Fed’s target of 2%
- Oil prices continued to drop to about $56 a barrel lowest in last 5 years
- Weekly job less claim dropped to 289,000 against anticipated 295,000
- November retail sales jumped 0.7%, the biggest increase in eight months, economists expected only a 0.4% rise in retail sales
Major
Catalyst for 2015
Let’s discuss what would be the major catalyst for
market to go up/down next year?
Energy Price: Will the price remain so low? USA
is expected to save around $480 billion due to low oil price. However, it is
also expected to lose about $200 billion on Tax, due to lower energy price.
Still it’s a humongous savings of $300 billion, which is more than the Tax cut
provided during Bush government.
Geo-political situation: Watch for political unrest,
particularly Russia. Russia crisis and its further military build and alliance
could be a major threat for global economy. It could intensify if further
sanctions are made.
Federal
rate hikes: Fed
rate hike may not happen until mid or late next year. The stock market is
anticipated to be volatile due to this.
Corporate
Earnings: The major
driver of the stock market is the corporate earnings, which determine the
valuations and correspondingly stock price. Next year the US economy is
expected to continue to grow and so also the corporate earnings. Any major
deviation in earnings could result in a rocky ride.
Presidential term: We enter to the third year of the Presidential term which has been very good for the market
In my
next month’s (January) blog, I will be putting my thoughts about the stock
market and what can we expect in 2015. Please stay tuned!
Will
Oil and Commodities be good investment in 2015?
Oil price continues to fall from $100 a barrel during
summer to about $57 now. Is this a good time to buy Oil stocks/ETF now? May be,
one can take a little position but I still feel that Energy prices could fall
further before stabilizing. Let’s discuss.
Negatives:
- Higher-than-expected production and rising inventories: USA has almost doubled its production in last 4-5 years from 4 million barrel to 9 million barrels. In addition, Iraq and Libya have also increased their production. OPEC not cutting production. Also increased production from
- Strong US dollar against other currencies
- Weak economic growth in many of the developed world viz. Japan, UK, flat wages and a broader risk of deflation could put further dent on oil prices
- Governments in some emerging markets, such as India are taking the opportunity to reduce energy subsidies, meaning users won't get the full benefit of cheaper crude prices which may not increase consumption
Positives:
- Oil Price is expected to stabilize. Per International Energy Agency, worldwide crude oil demand is expected to rise by 900,000 barrels a day in 2015
- Oil drilling field lose about 10% of the oil exploration each year due to less yield
- New money could potentially come once oil price stabilizes
Now
let’s see this months two great mutual fund that I recommend for my blog’s
portfolio.
Hennessy Gas Utility Index Fund Investor Class (GASFX)
Hennessey Gas Utility index fund intends to provide investment
that replicates the performance of the American Gas Association Stock Index, an
index maintained by the American Gas Association. Usually, it invests at least
85% of its net assets in the common stock of companies that have natural gas
distribution and transmission operations.
Why do I like this fund? We could see that Oil prices have been falling since last
couple of months. However, natural gas has not been falling that heavily as the
consumptions remains steady. I personally do not see a major fall on the prices
of natural gas. Utilities gain steadily in a low-interest and
low-inflation-rate environment. The lower oil price fuels further momentum
because pressures from fuel clauses are reduced. The utility sector seems
boring but if we see the Return on Investment (ROI) then this fund has
consistently provided exceptional returns in last several years. Even, during
the major downturn in 2000 and 2008, this fund was down 20+% points whereas
S&P 500 was down as much as 45%. Now let us discuss about its performance as of 11/30/2014:
Year-to-date
|
1 Year
|
3 Year
|
5 Year
|
10 Year
|
Life of Fund
|
|
GASFX
|
16.79%
|
22.70%
|
18.07%
|
19.10%
|
12.39%
|
10.53%
|
NAV: 30.36. NTF:
No Transaction Fee.
Fund
Inception: 5|10|1989.
Morningstar
Rating: *****
Minimum
Investment:
$2500
Load: No Load in
Fidelity. No Transaction Fee in Fidelity.
Expense
Ratio: 0.8%
(LOW).
Beta: 0.72 è Risk: this is less
volatile comparing to market move.
Fund
Manager: Ryan Kelley since 3/31/2013, Winsor H. Aylesworth since 1/1/2001
Visualizing some correction on the oil prices and excellent
return the fund has delivered, I believe it’s a great long-term investment for any portfolio.
Now let’s discuss another great Mutual Fund this month.
T. Rowe Price Media
and Telecommunications Fund (PRMTX)
PRMTX invests in the common stocks of companies engaged in
any facet of media and telecom, including the Internet, publishing, movies,
cable/satellite TV, telephones, cellular services, equipment etc. Usually the
fund invests in large/mid-cap companies. The Top holdings are companies like
American Tower, Time Warner, Amazon, Bidu, Verizon, Facebook, Google and so
on..
Why do I like this fund?
First of all, it provides a good diversification to the
Media, Telecom and Internet sector. Secondly, it has provided excellent return
on investment for last several years. Third, The fund has come down
significantly and it’s almost at the 52 weeks bottom after the dividend
distribution on 12/16/14. That’s the reason I thought this is the best time to
add to my blog’s portfolio for all the readers to take a closer look.
One of the grey areas is that the fund manager is relatively
new. However, visualizing the above factors it looks very compelling to start
putting some money in this fund. I already have the fund in my portfolio and
keep adding as it comes down. The part performance is not necessarily the
guarantee for future result but certainly it’s a good yardstick. During the
major downturn in 2008 it had -46% return and best year has provided 93% return
in 1999. Hence, I believe this is a great long-term investment on
any portfolio. I do my due diligence and buy mutual funds keeping longer time
horizon in mind, not for months or quarters. The minimum investment for
this fund is $2500 and subsequent investment is $100 with many brokerages. As a
principle, I would invest minimum in the beginning and then keep adding and accumulating
every few months. If we see the past performance with consistency then I think
this could be one of the best mutual fund in the market.
So, let’s look to
this fund’s performance as of 11/30/2014:
Year-to-date
|
1 Year
|
3 Year
|
5 Year
|
10 Year
|
Life of Fund
|
|
PRMTX
|
1.74%
|
12.28%
|
23.19%
|
19.76%
|
15.27%
|
14.74%
|
NAV: 65.12. NTF:
No Transaction Fee. Note: It has transaction fees in Fidelity.
Fund
Inception: 10|13|1993
Morningstar
Rating: ****
Minimum
Investment:
$2500
Load: No Load and No
Transaction Fee in many brokerages. Fidelity has transaction fees. Note: Please
look at the brokerage that has no transaction fees.
Expense
Ratio: 0.8%
(LOW)
Beta: 0.97 è Risk: This is almost same
volatile with the market move
Fund Manager: Paul D Greene since
5|13|2013 è Fund manager is relative new
Blog Portfolio
Equity
|
Suggested Price (USD)
|
Current Price (USD)
|
Suggested Date
|
% Changes
|
My Opinion (see disclaimer)
|
STOCK
|
|||||
AAPL
|
58
|
117.78
|
1/25/13
|
103%
|
BUY
|
BIDU
|
86.43
|
234.23
|
4/18/13
|
171%
|
BUY
|
GOGO
|
14
|
16.45
|
9/1/13
|
18%
|
HOLD
|
SLW
|
22
|
20.45
|
10/1/13
|
-7%
|
HOLD
|
FB
|
47
|
79.88
|
11/13/13
|
70%
|
HOLD
|
TSLA
|
135
|
219.29
|
11/13/13
|
62%
|
HOLD
|
AGNC
|
20.02
|
22.3
|
12/14/13
|
11%
|
BUY
|
MA
|
78.7
|
86.44
|
12/12/13
|
10%
|
BUY
|
NLY
|
10.77
|
11.33
|
2/2/14
|
5%
|
BUY
|
KO
|
38.55
|
41.95
|
3/9/14
|
9%
|
HOLD
|
KNDI
|
19.4
|
11.46
|
3/9/14
|
-40.9%
|
BUY
|
AMZN
|
311.73
|
299.9
|
4/12/14
|
-4%
|
HOLD
|
BAC
|
14.74
|
17.62
|
5/11/14
|
20%
|
BUY
|
QIHU
|
85
|
58.86
|
6/22/14
|
-31%
|
HOLD**
|
BX
|
32.42
|
34.34
|
8/24/14
|
6%
|
BUY
|
VIPS
|
22.68
|
20.63
|
11/23/14
|
-9%
|
BUY
|
ETF
|
|||||
GDX
|
27
|
19.88
|
4/1/13
|
-26%
|
HOLD
|
DUST
|
15.33
|
25.03
|
7/20/14
|
63%
|
HOLD
|
NUGT
|
27.38
|
15.52
|
9/21/14
|
-43%
|
HOLD **
|
MUTUAL
FUND
|
|||||
FBIOX
|
128
|
229.46
|
3/1/13
|
79%
|
Accumulate
|
PRHSX
|
60
|
69.74
|
2/2/14
|
16%
|
Accumulate
|
FSCHX
|
142.24
|
146.97
|
4/12/14
|
3%
|
BUY
|
OBCHX
|
16.14
|
15.7
|
6/22/14
|
-3%
|
BUY
|
FSCRX
|
29.34
|
29.74
|
10/25/14
|
1%
|
BUY
|
GASFX
|
30.36
|
30.36
|
12/20/14
|
0%
|
NEW -
BUY
|
PRMTX
|
65.12
|
65.12
|
12/20/14
|
0%
|
NEW -
BUY
|
Portfolio Updates:
Since these
stocks have been beaten heavily I would sell some portion from the trading
account, if any, and take capital loss. I can hold the remaining portion. If
it’s with non-taxable account then one can hang on with patience and wait for
some bounce and then dispose the stocks. See updates below.
Direxion Daily Gold Miners
Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT)
I can understand
that it’s not exciting to see roller coaster price fluctuations regularly. On
Nov 30, Swiss voters voted against referendum, which could have forced the
Swiss National Bank to hold a fifth of its assets in the form of gold reserves
and agree never to sell them in future. Though it was negative news still we
did see rally in the Gold prices to about $1235. However, again it pulled back.
I know it’s painful to see NUGT falling down to multi-year low. I would still
hold the position and wait for some bounce before selling.
Kandi
Technologies (KNDI): A few weeks ago, the company had organized an investment
conference in San Francisco. But after that the stock has been dropping. It
looks like investors were not very happy with the presentation made by the
company. Also, the falling oil prices have not been kind to KNDI. This stock
has been mostly on trading range from $12-$18. I am very hopeful that this
stock will bounce back.
QIHU 360 (QIHU): on 11/25, the company
reported its third quarter financial result of ADS 49 cents, surpassing estimate
by a penny due to higher revenues. Total revenues were $376.4 million, up 18.4%
sequentially and 100.3% year over year, that came above analyst expectation of
$363 million. Net income was $64.14 million or 49 cents per ADS, compared with
$43.45 million or 30 cents in the prior quarter. But the operating expenses increased
significantly to $225.5 million compared to previous year. The stock went up
then again it has corrected down near its 52 week low.
Economy News to watch next week (week
12/22/14)
Monday:
Existing
home sales
Tuesday:
GDP,
Core inflation, consumer sentiment, durable goods order
Wednesday: Weekly jobless claims
Thursday: stock markets will close early at 1:00 PM
Friday: US Stock Market closed for X-mas
Friday: US Stock Market closed for X-mas
Also you can go to the following URL:
Source: Marketwatch.com
Folks, that’s all for today. Wish you good
investing! Stay tuned for my next month, January 2015 blog, where I would put
my thought about 2015. Thanks for your time. If you want to get alert on my
action then please subscribe to shesagroup_invest@googlegroups.com. Please feel free to send
me your comments and suggestions or alert request to shesa.nayak@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This blog is meant to provide my personal
opinion rather than professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF,
mutual fund or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard earned
money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own suggestions.
Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not
earn any commission by writing the blog. I have position(s) on whatever
security I write on my blog and avoid recommending any security that I do not own
or follow.
Note: Click on Blog archives to read all my Blogs and updates.
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